#NEW A new publication from Indian Journal of Medical Research presents a mathematical model for #COVID19 in India, #coronaupdatesindia #Corona #COVID19 [Thread] 
The mathematical model seeks to capture various aspects of a future trends in India considering two contrasting scenarios
While the study considers variables such as failure and success of airport screenings, quarantine measures, it doesn't explicitly has global spread variable (US, Europe) and domestic lockdown (since it was submitted in Feb, when the speed of pandemic was unknown
Having said that, the model seeks to compare the optimistic and pessimistic view of four Indian metro cities #Delhi #Mumbai #Bengaluru #Kolkata
With Indian cities the bad case numbers are always scary but the model shows that timely interventions affect a big numeric difference #covidindia #COVID19
The paper estimates that five percent of affected patients in India will need ICU care and almost half of them will need mechanical ventilator support #Covid_19india
The global trend back in Feb suggested 8-10 severe cases and 40-50 non-severe cases for every death #COVID19
The paper recommended almost a war level preparation keeping health workers, their training, safety and efficiency at the forefront and expanding infrastructure with adequate supplies
Paper Courtesy: Sandip Mandal
, Tarun Bhatnagar
, Nimalan Arinaminpathy
, Anup Agarwal
, Amartya Chowdhury
, Manoj Murhekar
, Raman R. Gangakhedkar
& Swarup Sarkar1
, Tarun Bhatnagar
, Nimalan Arinaminpathy
, Anup Agarwal
, Amartya Chowdhury
, Manoj Murhekar
, Raman R. Gangakhedkar
& Swarup Sarkar1
