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Las previsiones del MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis del Imperial College de Londres sobre la pandemia del #COVID19. Abro hilo
imperial.ac.uk/mrc-global-inf…
Los investigadores estiman que en ausencia de intervenciones, la infección por COVID-19 habría dado lugar a 7 mil millones de infecciones y 40 millones de muertes a nivel mundial este año.
Las estrategias de mitigación que se centran en proteger a los ancianos y ralentizar pero no interrumpir la transmisión podrían reducir estos datos a la mitad, salvando 20 millones de vidas. A pesar de ello los sistemas de salud en todos los países pueden colapsarse.
Si la estrategia de confinamiento se implementa temprano (con 0,2 muertes por 100000 habitantes/semana) y es sostenida, entonces se podrían salvar hasta 38,7 millones de vidas.
Si por lo contrario, se inician cuando el número de muertes es mayor (1,6 muertes por 100000 hab/semana), entonces se podrían salvar 30,7 millones de vidas. Los retrasos en la implementación de medidas de mitigación darán peores resultados y menos vidas salvadas.
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Joseph Allen
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1/n On the enormity of what we're facing with #COVID19 , bad options, and...hope

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Dear friends and family,
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Eric Feigl-Ding
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