➡️ THIS IS HOW WE WILL DEFEAT #COVID19... but it’s not just that simple. We will need to go thru a lot to win against the pandemic... 
2) so you likely have all seen a “flatten the curve” figure like this below. The concept is simple but it’s not that easy to achieve - the future doesn’t say how much and how long containment and mitigation interventions have to stay in place. #COVID19
3) However, what it takes to get under the #COVID19 curve is actually quite draconian measures of not just social distancing but also incl 📍household quarantine📍(shelter in place)- and the footnote says... ➡️➡️➡️for 5 months. And omitted before is the *autumn resurgence* issue:
4) RESURGENCE: the virus can be suppressed but then quickly rebound - this will actually happens a lot. The models show what happens when all 4 suppression strategies are “on” and what happens once “off” and lifted. For #COVID19, it will come back fast.
5) From the full report (following are quotes): “We conclude that the effectiveness of any one intervention in isolation is likely to be limited, requiring multiple interventions to be combined to have a substantial impact on transmission.” (Cont’d) #COVID19
6) ... Two fundamental strategies are possible: 📌(a) mitigation, which focuses on slowing but not necessarily stopping epidemic spread – reducing peak healthcare demand while protecting those most at risk of severe disease from infection, and 📌(b) suppression... #COVID19
7) “which aims to reverse epidemic growth, reducing case numbers to low levels and maintaining that situation indefinitely. Each policy has major challenges. We find that that optimal mitigation policies...”
8) (combining home isolation of suspect cases, home quarantine of those living in the same household as suspect cases, and social distancing of the elderly and others at most risk of severe disease) might reduce peak healthcare demand by 2/3 and deaths by half.
9) However, resulting mitigated epidemic would still likely result in 📍hundreds of thousands of deaths and 📍health systems (most notably intensive care units) being overwhelmed many times over. For countries able to achieve it, this leaves suppression as the preferred option.
10) We show that in the UK and US context, suppression will minimally require a combination of social distancing of the entire population, home isolation of cases and household quarantine of their family members...
11) This may need to be supplemented by school and university closures, though it should be recognised that such closures may have negative impacts on health systems due to increased
absenteeism.
absenteeism.
12) The major challenge of suppression is that this type of intensive intervention package will need to be maintained until a vaccine becomes available (potentially 18 months or more) – given that we predict that transmission will quickly rebound if interventions are relaxed.
13) We show that intermittent social distancing – triggered by trends in disease surveillance – may allow interventions to be relaxed temporarily in relative short time windows, but measures will need to be reintroduced if or when case numbers rebound.” (/end quoted excerpts).
14) Source of the full report: Imperial College #COVID19 Response Team
WHO Collaborating Centre for Infectious Disease Modelling MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis
Abdul Latif Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial…
WHO Collaborating Centre for Infectious Disease Modelling MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis
Abdul Latif Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial…
15) BOTTOMLINE: To survive the #COVID19 epidemic, to wait until vaccine in 12-18 mo... extreme sacrifices in personal freedoms will have to be made. Report author Prof Ferguson warns: 📌“We might be living in a very different world for a year or more” 🌎 won’t be the same again.
