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The decision to shut down the economy may cause long-lasting damages to job creation and businesses.

It is essential to contain the virus spread and drastic measures are warranted, but we cannot forget that each month means millions unemployed and thousands of business closures.
Each month of lockdown means more than millions unemployed. It means thousands of businesses that go bankrupt and have to close forever. This questions the V-shaped recovery theory (even with Congress package, which does not address the working capital nightmare unraveling)
The best course of action to tackle the health crisis as well as the economic risk is probably the South Korea and Singapore strategy. This is not a spending crisis, but a test and prevention crisis.

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Daniel Lacalle
@dlacalle_IA
The @ecb PEPP program is very different from the previous repurchase programs. It allows the ECB all flexibility and in essence it’s a guarantee for the massive deficits that member states will have (1)
In summary, the @ecb is going to sell euros massively at the same time as the Eurozone trade surplus, that keeps the euro stable, collapses (2)
Risking a massive euro devaluation with economic recession that could lead to years of stagnation, the @ecb bet on a V-shaped recovery is very clear. The eurozone non-euro area export growth has been disappointing and losing market share since the launch of QE. (3)
Read 5 tweets
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Daniel Lacalle
@dlacalle_IA
Economic freedom is the only guarantee of environmental protection. #ClimateStrikes

(Yale & Columbia Environment Protection Index, Frasier Institute Economic Freedom Index)

Open Thread:
Interventionism and socialism have never protected the environment. They always subsidize the most polluting sectors and raise taxes on citizens with the excuse of the weather.

Heritage

#ClimateStrikes
The most polluting industries are state or semi-state owned or managing state resources in countries where economic openness and freedom is minimal. #ClimateStrikes

(Climate accountability report)
Read 10 tweets
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Daniel Lacalle
@dlacalle_IA
German consumers have not seen any benefit from lower wholesale power prices as renewable surcharges and higher taxes have offset all the benefits of higher competition.
The massive subsidies of the Energiewende green plan have not improved CO2 emissions (Germany will likely miss its own 2020 target) and cost up to €500 billion so far.

energsustainsoc.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.11…
A new "green energy plan" of €100 billion in the eurozone runs the risk of making the same mistakes of the Energiewende. Enormous cost for little results.

spiegel.de/international/…
Read 7 tweets

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Daniel Sinclair
@_DanielSinclair
Saint Patrick's Day celebrations winding down next. A year without culture or celebration.
"This is a unique virus, with unique features. This virus is not influenza. We are in uncharted territory." cnbc.com/2020/03/03/who…
"Dr. Mike Ryan, executive director of WHO’s health emergencies program, said Monday that the coronavirus isn’t transmitting the same exact way as the flu and health officials have been given a 'glimmer, a chink of light' that the virus could be contained." Image
Read 2981 tweets
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Daniel Sinclair
@_DanielSinclair
A really heartbreaking sight. The sacrifices from health workers in China have been immense.
This is the context of that video, reportedly related to the death of hospital director Liu Zhiming.
This is making the rounds, claiming to be Chinese escaping the country into Vietnam. I'm almost certain that it is misrepresented, and that this is not true.
Read 2899 tweets
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Daniel Sinclair
@_DanielSinclair
If containment fails, and this projection comes true, the hardships that the world would experience during the onset of the first coronavirus pandemic would be hard to comprehended through our current eyes. A first for the modern world.
That’s further out, but if COVID-19 does break through to influenza scale, the benefit would be in a substantial population of immunity & antibodies. Those prospects are now where China is focusing. Antibody donation could improve outcomes; that’s moving from secondary priority.
The best outcome of a worst case scenario would be herd immunity. But, millions would die, medical infrastructure would be overwhelmed at even a fraction of the early generational spread, & the world would be on pause. Transfusion is not the golden ticket; you need a lot of infra
Read 2852 tweets
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Daniel Sinclair
@_DanielSinclair
Unsurprisingly, more information was withheld by the Chinese government. COVID-19 had reached Guangdong by January 4th. Wuhan's lockdown only began on the 23rd. This is a probelm far bigger than Hubei and China.
Alternate reality: Theranos Ends Pandemic
It's so sad to read these stories of China's state of unrest. Trust is degraded. This is not a society that will return to normal with a snap of fingers and bans lifted. China is damaged, could be for years, & we're not even near the end of this epidemic.
Read 2850 tweets
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Daniel Sinclair
@_DanielSinclair
If you're looking for someone compromised on China, you have this theater and its 'unbreakable friendship.' news.yahoo.com/china-declines…
Xi's latest appearance on a call with Trump this morning is a different story, merely parroting the "People's War" language that state media has orchestrated in recent days
This question has only deepened for Chinese and the world in recent days, with the tragedy only growing day after day, and Wuhan's whistleblower now fallen: where is Xi Jinping? time.com/5778994/corona…
Read 2810 tweets
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WBAI New York at 99.5 FM
@WBAI
nor has it voted in any way to express dissatisfaction with their work that could justify any current action that would hurt WBAI and Pacifica by removing them from their positions, especially in the arrogant, destructive, and illegal manner that the IED Crew acted.
Section 6. We hereby direct that whatever acting General Manager the IED has put in place in charge of WBAI be removed and that whatever acting Program Director put in charge by the IED Crew (this is specifically not a reference to Linda Perry) also be removed, because,
because, for at least three full business days, they have not identified themselves to the LSB or taken any steps to establish the relationship and coordination with the LSB required under the Bylaws, nor were whatever people who may hold such positions put in place by the IED
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