COVID-19: Where are we?
As Dan Andrews pointed out in passing, QLD, NSW and VIC all by chance happen to be synchronised in their stage of the pandemic we find ourselves in. So what is that? .../2
As Dan Andrews pointed out in passing, QLD, NSW and VIC all by chance happen to be synchronised in their stage of the pandemic we find ourselves in. So what is that? .../2
Even though NSW has ~twice as many COVID-19 infections as as QLD or VIC, by chance, they also have twice as many ICU beds: NSW has 1,618 cases, VIC 685, QLD 625 (although VIC has probably been suppressing testing over the last week); ../3
NSW has 874 ICU beds, VIC has 476 and QLD has 413. About 10% of cases of COVID-19 need admission to ICU, and about half of those need access to a ventilator. The issue is that while most normal ICU admissions are for 3-4 days, for COVID-19 admissions average over 2 weeks, ../4
and in many cases last as long as 4. COVID-19 has an infection doubling time of around 3 days on the eastern seaboard, so that means that all the ICU beds in Eastern Australia will be full of COVID-19 cases between 6-9 days from today (2-3 doubling times). ../5
Using all the anaesthetic machines in hospitals as ventilators roughly doubles numbers, so if we shut down all other emergency responses, we get an extra 3 days: 9-12 days before collapse of the hospital system.
WHAT DOES THIS MEAN FOR YOU?
We are one week from disaster. ../6
WHAT DOES THIS MEAN FOR YOU?
We are one week from disaster. ../6
If from RIGHT NOW, you stay at home for the whole of the next week and do not go out at all - and I mean AT ALL, because all the people who will be admitted to ICU in a week have already been infected, we will still hit the point of hospital saturation. ../7
The curve will just skirt disaster. BUT NO MORE. The following week, things will sit there, right on the brink, for the whole of the week. BUT NO MORE. And then perhaps we can have a chat about priorities or whatever, and decide as we gaze into the eternal hell of Mt Doom, ../8
whether we want to become Italy, or Spain, or Washington State, or New York. But WE WILL HAVE THAT CHANCE. On the other hand, if you decide you need one more bog roll, or Maccas, or to attend yet another pandemic party, you rob yourself and everyone else of that opportunity. ../9
You rob us of that decision point, and you rob many people of their futures. Listen to Dan Andrews and STAY THE FUCK AT HOME.
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