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Kamiar Mohaddes Profile picture
@KamiarMohaddes
Mar 30, 2020 • 3 tweets • 4 min read • Read on X
Does a domestic #fiscal adjustment in #Saudi Arabia have a negative impact on economic growth?

The results based on our @UNESCWA working paper (with @mraissi80 @IMFNews and @niranjan875 @UNESCWA) show that is not necessarily the case: unescwa.org/publications/m… Image
While we would have expected a #fiscal tightening to cause a temporarily fall in economic #growth in #Saudi Arabia, this is not borne by the data as the estimated impact on economic growth is not statistically significant (see Figure 8). 2/3 Image
However, we argue that the sign of the impact would depend upon the size of #fiscal adjustment, the quality of #tax and spending measures adopted, and whether they are complemented with structural #reforms or not. 3/3

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More from @KamiarMohaddes

Kamiar Mohaddes Profile picture
Jun 11, 2021
Super excited to see our paper on #Covid19 #Fiscal Support and its Effectiveness, with Alexander Chudik @DallasFed & @mraissi80 @IMFNews, out in Economics Letters. You can read it (free access) from here: authors.elsevier.com/c/1dDlMbZedt0om #TGVAR 1/n Image
With new variants/waves & reimposition of restrictions in some regions, governments around the world are calling for a careful assessment of the effectiveness of the adopted #Covid19 #fiscal measures before they embark on further easing or tailoring of measures 2/n
The #Covid19 pandemic led to a sharp tightening of global #financial conditions at the acute phase of the crisis and has inflicted large economic losses across the world (see Figure below) ... 3/n Image
Read 28 tweets
Kamiar Mohaddes Profile picture
Sep 25, 2020
What are the implications of excess global financial market volatility on economic growth? Are there threshold effects in the relationship between growth & excess global volatility for individual countries? How should we model the nonlinear effects in a multi-country setting? 1/n
We answer these questions in recent work with Alexander Chudik @DallasFed, M Hashem Pesaran @USCDornsife @TrinCollCam, @mraissi80 @IMFNews & @arebucci1 @JHUCarey @cepr_org @nberpubs: ideas.repec.org/p/cam/camdae/2… #TGVAR 2/n
The #Covid19 #pandemic has been a shock like no other, initiating simultaneous demand and supply disruptions. In addition, it led to a sharp tightening in global #financial market conditions during the first quarter of 2020. 3/n Image
Read 23 tweets
Kamiar Mohaddes Profile picture
Sep 18, 2020
In a recent paper, with Alexander Chudik @DallasFed, M Hashem Pesaran @USCDornsife, @mraissi80 @IMFNews & @arebucci1 @JHUCarey, we develop a threshold-augmented dynamic multi-country model (#TGVAR) to quantify the #macroeconomic effects of #Covid19: econ.cam.ac.uk/research/cwpe-… 1/n Image
Key challenges with the empirical #economic analysis of #Covid19 include the following: how to identify the shock, how to account for its non-linear effects, & how to quantify its effects while accounting for spillovers, common global factors, network effects and uncertainty. 2/n
We contribute to the literature by addressing these issues in a coherent multi-country framework. We offer an identification strategy for the #Covid19 shock considering that a synthetic control method cannot be applied in the context of a global #pandemic. 3/n
Read 23 tweets
Kamiar Mohaddes Profile picture
Jul 3, 2020
Looking forward to chatting with potential @Cambridge_Uni economics candidates later today and answering any questions you have about #economics at #Cambridge (one of the oldest economics faculties in the world) or the wonderful @Kings_College.
Did you know that @Kings_College has a long tradition in #economics?

It has been the home of many great economists, such as Richard Kahn, Nicholas Kaldor, John Maynard Keynes, Arthur Cecil Pigou, Joan Robinson, Richard Stone and Oliver Hart to name a few. Image
Among @Cambridge_Uni Colleges, at King's we currently have one of the largest number of #economics Fellows, including my amazing colleagues Aytek Erdil, @elisafaraglia, @giannitsarou & Hamid Sabourian (with super interesting research interests from macroeconomics to game theory). Image
Read 4 tweets
Kamiar Mohaddes Profile picture
May 28, 2020
The latest issue of our #MiddleEast #Development Journal is now out, with 9 fantastic papers covering a number of urgent issues in the #MENA region, including #inequality, #SWFs. #trade and the future of #jobs: tandfonline.com/toc/rmdj20/12/… #MEJD @econromesh @ChahirZaki @Hanomics2
Sovereign wealth funds and cross-border investment bias: the case of #Arab countries by Ibrahim Elbadawi @ERFlatest, Raimundo Soto @ucatolica & @ChahirZaki @CairoUniv @EMNESorg: doi.org/10.1080/179381… 1/9 #MEDJ Image
Equivalence scales and the change in poverty levels across time: #Turkish case by Burcay Erus @UniBogazici: tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.10… 2/9 #MEDJ Image
Read 10 tweets
Kamiar Mohaddes Profile picture
May 20, 2020
Like my friend Thomas, I keep getting sent articles about our teaching @Cambridge_Uni next academic year and people emailing to ask about the articles, please don’t jump to conclusions! 1/n
Sorry, started the thread and then had to go back to #homeschooling, but back now 😀 2/n
First of all this about large scale lectures. They will be online. But surely all other universities will do the same?! 3/n
Read 5 tweets

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