Personal experience on COVID-19 spread in the US
25% of my family/friends near US epicenters (NYC, SEA, ORD, SFO, BOS) have already shown COVID-19 signs: fever (many intermittent), dry cough, loss of smell/taste, body ache. many symptoms persist >12 days.
25% of my family/friends near US epicenters (NYC, SEA, ORD, SFO, BOS) have already shown COVID-19 signs: fever (many intermittent), dry cough, loss of smell/taste, body ache. many symptoms persist >12 days.
fortunately, everyone has been recovering. none hospitalized.
% of people (among the symptomatic) received COVID-19 testing: 10%
Reasons for test denial:
1. fever <100F, blood oxygen level okay.
or
2. test done. but no result after 7 days (sample expired)
% of people (among the symptomatic) received COVID-19 testing: 10%
Reasons for test denial:
1. fever <100F, blood oxygen level okay.
or
2. test done. but no result after 7 days (sample expired)
No one ever received a 2nd PCR test.
Chest-CT conducted: 0.
meds: 20% received something (nothing COVID-19 specific IMO). 80% was told to sleep it off.
This was all before HCQ approved by FDA.
Chest-CT conducted: 0.
meds: 20% received something (nothing COVID-19 specific IMO). 80% was told to sleep it off.
This was all before HCQ approved by FDA.
My interpretation:
1. hospitals are very busy with severe cases. mild cases are not tested/treated.
--> US case count from PCR tests likely to underreport by 5-10x right now (denied or false negative). Headline fatality rate will be >4% because only severe cases are tested.
1. hospitals are very busy with severe cases. mild cases are not tested/treated.
--> US case count from PCR tests likely to underreport by 5-10x right now (denied or false negative). Headline fatality rate will be >4% because only severe cases are tested.
Assuming no major policy change
2. By the end of June, COVID19 attack rate among *urban* *working-age* people likely exceeds 40%. Most not tested and given sleep-it-off treatment
Fatality rate (20-60 year old) probably 0.3-0.8%. severe cases are due to genetics or ignorance.
2. By the end of June, COVID19 attack rate among *urban* *working-age* people likely exceeds 40%. Most not tested and given sleep-it-off treatment
Fatality rate (20-60 year old) probably 0.3-0.8%. severe cases are due to genetics or ignorance.
3. Fatality rate for 65+ continues to be elevated, but they will see a much flatter curve than working-age population.
4. If IgG tests are made widely available by June, most people can go back to work in June. 65+folks will need social distancing until vaccine is available.
4. If IgG tests are made widely available by June, most people can go back to work in June. 65+folks will need social distancing until vaccine is available.
