Thread by @CrisisGroup

#Turkey’s military incursion into #Syria’s north east rumbles on amid rising civilian & combatant casualties and growing displacement.

@CrisisGroup and its experts see many risks for the region unless Turkey quickly pulls back from a broader offensive.

2/ The US on 6 October announced the withdrawal of troops & President Trump said he would not stand in the way of a Turkish offensive.

But it’s one thing for the US to withdraw – doing it precipitously is another.

https://twitter.com/Rob_Malley/status/1181211267987628032

3/ With both sides shelling across the border, casualties include at least:

➞ 11 civilians killed in Syria & Turkish border towns
➞ 1 Turkish soldier killed
➞ Dozens of Turkey-backed Syrian militants
➞ Hundreds of Kurdish militants

bbc.com/news/world-mid…

4/ What are Turkey’s aims?

@JoostHiltermann explains it is still unclear if Turkey aims at a limited incursion into areas evacuated by the US or an attempt to put its proxies in control of the entire border strip.

bbc.in/35nK9lF

5/ How has the YPG responded?

Syrian Kurdish forces hope Turkey’s operation will be strictly limited by the US, and @dkhalifa believes they initially restrained any retaliation in the hope of having continued US protection in the future.

6/ A broader offensive by Turkey contains several major risks.

First, if the YPG loses all faith in US protection and is not able to secure a deal with Damascus that could protect the area, this incursion could push the YPG back to guerrilla warfare.

crisisgroup.org/middle-east-no…

7/ Second, the offensive could fuel the resurgence of ISIS.

Our new report explains that a Turkish incursion could divert YPG forces from fighting ISIS remnants in the Euphrates valley, enabling them to regain their potency and expand to other areas.

crisisgroup.org/middle-east-no…

8/ Third, ISIS prisoners and their families currently under SDF custody could be freed.

@AbuJamajem says that if even some of the 7,000 ISIS fighters escape, they could catalyse ISIS operations locally or even augment militant groups internationally.

bit.ly/33lM5t5

9/ Even if Ankara should take responsibility for ISIS militants and families, as the #US has suggested, it has no “magic formula” to deal with them. “Deradicalisation programs are at embryonic stages”, our Turkey expert @nigargoksel told @financialtimes.

ft.com/content/3fb079…

10/ Fourth, Turkey hosts over 3m Syrian refugees, posing myriad challenges. But while Ankara talks of resettling Syrian refugees in northern Syria, the incursion is for now sending a new wave of thousands fleeing from homes in the conflict area.

crisisgroup.org/europe-central…

11/ Casualties in the Turkey-PKK conflict inside Turkey have been limited in the past three years but the incursion could fuel the PKK’s insurgency inside the country.

@CrisisGroup has been closely tracking fatalities & dynamics in its visual explainer.
crisisgroup.org/content/turkey…

12/ So what can be done?

@dkhalifa tells@AP_News that any new US offer to Turkey should include a bundle of concessions from the YPG in return for unwavering U.S. guarantees to limit the scope of the operation - essential to preserve anti-ISIS gains.

bit.ly/2nGfjnw

13/ Failing that, the YPG might pursue a deal with the regime in Damascus, despite the fact that earlier attempts have failed.

We outline all the dynamics in play in our latest alert:

bit.ly/2q6AyQf