A state-wise analysis
- Underlying dynamics of the epidemic, the human factors and interventions that have resulted in the trends for each state - 10 states covered in this thread
- Reading the plots
- Underlying dynamics of the epidemic, the human factors and interventions that have resulted in the trends for each state - 10 states covered in this thread
- Reading the plots
Our customized epidemiological simulator for India-specific questions & the modelling parameters
Reading the plots
#DelhiFightsCovid #COVIDー19
Daily new confirmations will grow marginally, while recoveries will see sharp upturn in next 10 days
Daily new confirmations will grow marginally, while recoveries will see sharp upturn in next 10 days
#GujaratFightsCovid19 #COVIDー19
Need for substantial increase and maintenance in contact tracing efficiency to flatten the curve
Need for substantial increase and maintenance in contact tracing efficiency to flatten the curve
#Maharashtra #COVIDー19
- Efficiency of contact-tracing at the lowest percentile among Indian states - needs drastic improvement to give a tough fight
- Substantially high fatality rate of 7% was necessary to match the actual deceased numbers
- Efficiency of contact-tracing at the lowest percentile among Indian states - needs drastic improvement to give a tough fight
- Substantially high fatality rate of 7% was necessary to match the actual deceased numbers
#MadhyaPradesh #COVIDー19
Same story as Maharashtra - Efficiency of contact-tracing at the lowest percentile among Indian states - needs drastic improvement to give a tough fight
- Substantially high fatality rate of 8% was necessary to match the actual deceased numbers
Same story as Maharashtra - Efficiency of contact-tracing at the lowest percentile among Indian states - needs drastic improvement to give a tough fight
- Substantially high fatality rate of 8% was necessary to match the actual deceased numbers
#Karnataka #COVIDー19
Scope for substantial increase in contact-tracing efficiency - will lead to flattening
Abrupt increase in efficiency of contact tracing over the last 5 days - explains the spurt in cases
Scope for substantial increase in contact-tracing efficiency - will lead to flattening
Abrupt increase in efficiency of contact tracing over the last 5 days - explains the spurt in cases
#Rajasthan #COVIDー19
- Consistent and graded increase in efficiency of contact tracing - steepest increase around March 27th
- Data consistent with a low fatality rate (2%)
- Consistent and graded increase in efficiency of contact tracing - steepest increase around March 27th
- Data consistent with a low fatality rate (2%)
#Telangana #COVIDー19
All set to flatten - challenge is to maintain the efficiency of contact-tracing and avoid emergence of new clusters
All set to flatten - challenge is to maintain the efficiency of contact-tracing and avoid emergence of new clusters
#TamilNadu #COVIDー19
- Expect marginal increase in confirmed cases - needs prolonged high efficiency in contact-tracing to flatten
- All set to flatten - challenge is to maintain the efficiency of contact-tracing and avoid emergence of new clusters
- Expect marginal increase in confirmed cases - needs prolonged high efficiency in contact-tracing to flatten
- All set to flatten - challenge is to maintain the efficiency of contact-tracing and avoid emergence of new clusters
#UttarPradesh #COVIDー19
- Small, but sustained influx of infected persons from March 1st to last week was necessary to match trends
- Ever-present danger of infected cluster exploding - immediate increase in contact tracing efficiency holds the key
- Small, but sustained influx of infected persons from March 1st to last week was necessary to match trends
- Ever-present danger of infected cluster exploding - immediate increase in contact tracing efficiency holds the key
#WB #WestBengal #COVIDー19
- Low contact tracing & quarantining efficiency over the entire period
- Substantially high fatality rate of 6% (compared to 4% for most other states) was necessary to match the actual deceased numbers
- Low contact tracing & quarantining efficiency over the entire period
- Substantially high fatality rate of 6% (compared to 4% for most other states) was necessary to match the actual deceased numbers
- Several states have a substantial increase in efficiency of contact tracing around March 27th-28th
- Recoveries lag behind deceased data points – lag is typically 8 days (except in some states where lag is 5-8 days)
- Recoveries lag behind deceased data points – lag is typically 8 days (except in some states where lag is 5-8 days)
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