Thread by @quakes99

Here are some of main points that came out in Cameco's $CCO $CCJ 2020 Q1 Conference Call. The overall theme was that recent transition towards a seller's market in the #uranium space has been accelerated by #COVID19 supply disruptions. Cameco is moving into driver's seat..

2) Cameco is seeing broad-based #uranium demand in the Spot market led by producers like themselves trying to fill delivery contracts. #Nuclear utilities not dominant yet. No month-end price dips in March/April signal tighter market. Material availability is inverse to price...

3) Cameco agrees with Kazatomprom CEO that Carry Trade is declining as Spot #uranium oversupply ends. Huge primary supply deficit eliminates availability of material for carry traders. Result is utilities returning to "classic" long-term contracting as traders cannot deliver LT..

4) Price discovery is starting to appear in #uranium market. 2 price reporters have very different judgement perspectives. UxC LT $33/lb shows backward-looking (yesterday focused) recency bias while TradeTech with LT at $39, touching $40, is forward-looking (tomorrow focused)...

5) Cameco "very pleased" with US #Nuclear Fuel Working Group report and renewed US support for essential baseload nuclear power industry and #uranium fuel cycle...

6) Commenting on Kazatomprom's -18% #COVID19 #uranium supply disruptions, Cameco sees Cigar Lake better positioned for a fairly quick restart when the time comes, where Kazakh ISR mines will take more time to ramp up production after restart decision is made...

7) #Uranium story has switched from Secondary Supplies & Inventories to "mobility" of source supplies. Mobility matters more now as focus turns towards risk to supply and potential for more unplanned supply disruptions, adding more forward delivery risk to #nuclear utilities...

8) Broad #uranium market has not seen the needed replacement rates in new long-term contracts to meet #nuclear fuel demand. The over 180M lbs/yr consumed in reactors is not being replaced with enough new contracts. Utilities focused on COVID19 fuel risk evaluations right now...

9) Cameco's Cigar Lake #uranium mine will remain offline until a decision made in consultation with health authorities & partners. Northern communities at high #COVID19 risk due to lack of medical facilities. Outbreak of 50 cases in La Loche highlights that issue...

10) Cameco will bring Cigar Lake mine back up "on our own terms" and quite quickly when time comes as workforce remains ready... unlike other producers, no need to hire and train new mine workers... ready to go but not until we decided...

11) Cameco has strong $1.2B cash position, $1B undrawn credit facility, sees no need to defer any scheduled deliveries. Utilities are at or below desired inventory levels already, but if they ask for deferrals we will work with them on that, but not expecting that to happen...

12) Can Cameco survive a longer shutdown of all operations? Yes, we have the cash and ability to deliver and sustain operations if #COVID19 drags on. Source pounds will be available but at higher prices, which works fine with our market-related priced contracts...

13) Cameco is not in a hurry to sign new Long-term contracts... happy to let Spot price continue rising until desired pricing levels to get right-priced contracts filled for McArthur restart. Destocking phase of the past is now working in Cameco's favour to a seller's market..

14) Cameco now has a Market-related pricing preference for new Long-term #uranium contracts so they can best benefit from what they see as higher prices down the road...

15) Finally.. Port Hope Fuel Services not significantly impacted if just 4 week shutdown. Not considering M&A at this time as have sufficient projects in the pipeline. Still could see $$ cash from CRA appeals later this year.💰 Hope you found this helpful. Good luck to all!☘️