Thread by @quakes99

1) On 25 July, Tribeca's Commodity Trading Specialist Guy Keller gave an excellent presentation outlining their #bullish #Investment case for #Uranium, expecting to increase their exposure to #U3O8 sector over rest of 2019 as #nuclear demand grows... asx.com.au/asxpdf/2019072…

2) Summary: drivers for higher #uranium prices include growing #demand for #nuclear #energy, #China reactor builds, recent #U3O8 supply cuts & long lead times to recover, mines unprofitable without 50% U price rise, inventories down as contracts roll off, 232 uncertainty gone...

3) #Uranium will play an increasingly important role in global supply of clean, stable, #nuclear base-load power generation given today's focus on environmental improvement amid rising global demand for #CarbonFree low emissions #electricity...

4) #Uranium prices are sensitive to supply issues at key mines & remain low versus historical levels. US$40/lb #U3O8 needs to become the new "floor" price to incentivize production to meet current #nuclear demand...

5) #U3O8 Spot Price is lagging Real Activity Indicators: Rally in Conversion & #SWU Prices show #nuclear pick-up and dropping secondary supply. Broader market focuses on low volume #uranium spot price gyrations dominated by traders. Cameco buying activity key driver this year...

6) Global #Electricity demand is growing while power generation shifts away from carbon emitting fossil fuels, with ~40% growth in #nuclear #energy anticipated by 2035 in order to maintain nuclear's #CarbonFree cheap, reliable base-load supply at current 11% of electricity mix...

7) Environmental concerns rising on impacts of carbon emissions, especially in non-OECD nations. Failed experiment in #Germany shows $580B investment on #renewables saw NO REDUCTION in emissions (double those of #nuclear #France) & 50% rise in #electricity costs (2x $ France)...

8) #Nuclear power remains the safest form of #energy production in the world, accounting for just 0.1% of pollution related deaths per Terrawatt Hour. #Uranium fueled reactors in #China reduced coal burning by 90M tonnes in 2018 avoiding 280M tonnes of CO2 emissions...

9) Common misconception is high costs for building #nuclear reactors. Spread over average 60 year operating life, compared to 25 years for #wind & #solar, cost in today's dollars is competitive. Wind & Solar must be replaced 2.5 times over 60+ years nuclear reactor lifespan...

10) Classic mistake made by #investors is in analyzing #uranium global inventories. Only 75M lbs of estimated 1.8B lbs, less than 6 months #nuclear fuel demand, is actually "available". Inventories are at 5 year lows in EU & US while financial players "soak up" what's available..

11) Looking only at 54 #nuclear reactors currently under construction, excluding #China those reactors alone require another #uranium mine the size of Cameco's McArthur River to meet their demand. Just China needs another Husab size mine. 111/328 more reactors planned/proposed...

12) #China alone has plans to increase #nuclear capacity by at least 300% by 2030, just 11 years away, from current 45GWe to 120-150GWe. (6 new builds announced just this week!) That's an increase in #uranium demand from 20M lbs/yr to ~75M lbs #U3O8/yr = 3 more McArthur mines!...

13) #Uranium supply cuts & long lead times to restart mines & add new production means future supply response will be muted. McArthur & LHM need >US$45/lb to restart. Minor supply cuts in other commodities have caused dramatic price increases. #U3O8 price rally on the horizon...

14) Current #Uranium prices remain deep in the cost curve. Higher #U3O8 prices are needed for almost all current supply to continue producing. 30% of planned 2020 production will lose money at current prices. Sustained price above US$40/lb necessary to bring new mine production.

15) Global demand for #uranium is expected to increase from Non-OECD Nations at same time US & EU #nuclear utilities need to renegotiate supply contracts, 80% of those by 2023. Long Term Stability & Security of Supply is major issue. US 232 delayed utility contracts by 18 months.

16) "No Action" US Section 232 #Uranium result has removed uncertainty, unshackled #nuclear utility fuel buyers, while establishment of US Nuclear Fuel Working Group provides reassurance for longer term health of US nuclear industry.⚛️👨‍⚕️ Findings due within 90 days...

17) In conclusion, Tribeca provides their #investment approach for #uranium miners, and highlights Boss Resources (#ASX: $BOE) as Case Study that fits their #investing strategy. Sorry for the long thread but I felt it was worth the effort! #U3O8 Bull Market is emerging! 🐂🤠📈