Thread by @elinaribakova

1/ #Nigeria is facing significant external pressure. The IMF support of $3.4bn is helpful, but unlikely to be enough to fully close the external financing gap, even assuming other multilateral lenders come through (how likely is large WB support w/o IMF program) @BHilgenstockIIF

2/ Nigeria's current account is likely to be in deficit despite sharp import contraction. Production limits under the OPEC+ agreement plus lower oil prices will reduce goods exports by more than 40% in 2020.

3/ Nigeria is continuing to face portfolio outflows since 2H2019. While estimating with precision foreign investor participation in CB bills can be a challenge, we think that more outflows are to be expected. @BHilgenstockIIF

4/ Nigeria's reserve loss started well before the #COVID19 shock and is likely to continue.
What are the options?

1. Further reserve loss
2. FX adjustment
3. IMF SBA
4. Formal or informal capital controls?

@BHilgenstockIIF @raziakkhan @RencapMan