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A must read today on #oil from @IEA

Due #COVID they present 3 scenarios 2020 oil demand
Base case (demand picks up later in year): -90 kb/d
Low case (global measures fail to contain virus): -730 kb/d
High case (quickly contained): +480 kb/d iea.li/3aInnaf

1/
2/ global oil demand in 2020 falls to a trickle @IEA
3/ US production set to plateau even with their base case of $60 Brent. Further spending cuts are expected for 2020, with capital discipline remaining a priority.

This is way above the current levels of $30-$35 #oil with #OPEC failing to reach an agreement #OOTT
4/ The report is a bit too hopeful on #OPEC prepared mostly before the recent news and trying to stay neutral on focused on the medium term.

Robust non-OPEC growth through 2021 suggests that there is likely to be a role for OPEC+ market management. From 2022 US looses steam
5/ Asia accounts for 77% of oil demand growth through 2025 for oil demand to rebound. This is for now a region still heavily affected by #COVID
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#oil #COVID #OPEC #OOTT

More from @elinaribakova see all

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Elina Ribakova
@elinaribakova
For Russia an external shock from oil is not unlike one from sanctions.

That’s why it is so hard to disentangle the 2014 effect. Both dry up external/budget funding.

A thread on Russia’s macro.

1/ it is one of the few counties with fiscal and current account surpluses.
Thanks to the massive fiscal adjustment after the 2014 shocks of sanctions and lower oil. Look at the consolidated expenditure on the chart below.
As a result Russia’s fiscal break even price for oil went from $113 in 2013 to $49 in 2019.
Read 20 tweets
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Elina Ribakova
@elinaribakova
A fantastic book from @voxeu on #COVID19 put together by @BaldwinRE and @bweder with chapters by my former colleagues @Bruegel_org @GuntramWolff
1/

First, this is unique shock. The share of the global economies affected is unprecedented @LauBooneEco @OECD_Stat Image
2/
Largest economies highly integrated into global trade and markets. Image
Read 12 tweets
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Elina Ribakova
@elinaribakova
Dollar vs EM currencies is as important if not more for EM policy space as Fed rates.

Great presentation by @HyunSongShin

ecb.europa.eu/pub/conference…
Capital flow intemediation has from banks to bond markets mostly held by institutional asset managers.
Local market development in #EmergingMarkets should have helped them to move away from the “original sin” @upanizza of borrowing in foreign currency. But holdings of local markets are significantly dominated by global asset managers.
Read 9 tweets

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moeti damane
@iamSANhedrin
Lets talk about #Oil and the #Corona / #COVID19 #Virus. What is it doing to #Global #Energy #Demand & what does it mean for #OPEC?
On March 5th 2020, the Organisation of #Petroleum Exporting Countries #OPEC concluded its 178th Extraordinary meeting. Aside from Ecuador's withdrawal from OPEC, the #Oil #Cartel was hard pressed to fashion a response to the impact of #COVID19 on #Global oil #Demand...
It is no secret that the #global #oil #market is awash in oil. The glut in supply has seen, in the past, a collaboration of sorts between #OPEC & Non-OPEC (mainly #Russia) oil exporters to monitor supply & maintain output at "mutually profitable" levels...
Read 9 tweets
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J.S.Zolliker ∴
@zolliker
De nuevo: NO salgan a comprar x pánico, TAPABOCAS o cubrebocas. NINGUNA autoridad médica recomienda su uso salvo que:
1. Seas trabajador del sector salud.
2. Presentes síntomas
3. Así te lo mande una autoridad médica

Antes de reclamarme, lee todo el hilo, por favor. #COVIDー19
Es importante que sepan que usar mal el tapabocas, no solo NO AYUDA ayuda sino que puede EMPEORAR la tasa de contagio.

El tapabocas quirúrgico que vemos en todas las series de TV, NO filtra partículas virales de fuera (el ambiente) hacia dentro (ustedes).
Ese tapabocas fue registrado por uso por primera vez, por el Dr. Berger, en Paris, en 1897. Su causa de uso: tratar de disminuir las infecciones en pacientes en quirófano previniendo que los médicos y personal, contaminaran al paciente abierto (campo quirúrgico).
Read 30 tweets
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Alberto García-Salido
@Nopanaden
Hace un par de días hablamos sobre #COVIDー19 en @MasDeUno con @carlos__alsina
Sin alarmar pero, al tiempo, sin banalizar ni aplicando comparaciones sencillas pero inexactas con epidemias previas o virus como el de la gripe.
Os invito a escucharlo.
bit.ly/3aaNhTC
@MasDeUno @carlos__alsina Creo que no se debe usar la gripe ni para “meter miedo” al hablar de su mortalidad ni, al comparar, intentar quitar importancia al problema que supone el coronavirus.
Estamos probablemente en una situación que en el mundo moderno no se había vivido antes.
@MasDeUno @carlos__alsina Es por eso que debemos respetar y entender las medidas que las autoridades consideren oportunas. Hace no menos de un mes se criticaba en algunos foros (y por algunos gurús) las medidas tomadas en China.
Ayer desde la @WHO destacaron su enorme trabajo.
Read 8 tweets
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moeti damane
@iamSANhedrin
Lets talk about #Oil and #Inflation and whether the relationship is #Linear or #NonLinear...
We have all been witness to the recent volatility in the #Global #Oil markets. We have seen how disruptions in oil #Supply, be it from #SaudiArabia, #Nigeria, #Venezuela, #Iran or #Libya can cause upticks in the global #Price of oil...
On the same token, we are aware how muted #oil #demand can arise from a slow down in #global #growth. For e.g. a persistent slowdown in #China often translates into a softening of global oil prices. Similarly, high #inventories & the impact of #US #shale drives down prices...
Read 9 tweets
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Dannielle Blumenthal PhD
@DrDannielle
Let’s take a look at @PaulKrugman and his claims regarding his computer.
He has since deleted the original tweet, which read.

Sorry the link doesn’t work it’s there for posterity. Cutting and pasting the text into the next tweet.
Read 124 tweets
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Alok Dharia
@alkd1976
Professional commodity traders rarely ever trade price. The bulk of the volume in commodity trades are in spread trading. Different types of spreads traded
1. Calendar spreads (contango or backwardation)
2. Location basis spreads (wti-brent)
3. Refining spreads ( gas/heat cracks
4. Cross commodity spreads (crude to natty)

Most of these spreads are a function of relative fundamental supply and demand. Will explain each and what the fundamental drivers of each are soon if people are interested
Would you be interested in learning more about commodities? Feel free to retweet. If there is enough interest will think about next steps to reach a wider audience
Read 46 tweets

Trending hashtags

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