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These are the "events" we experience during Kondratiev's Winter. We have seen some of these but they will play out a range of times. First in 2000-03, then worse during 2007-09 and now the big one 2020-23(?). Some major dominoes are about to fall - before we reach end of Winter
Major events still to be seen (apart from rest which will be repeated and become much worse than before!): 1) Pension fund crisis 2) Run from paper money 3) War (hope not!) 4) Debt resolution (Monetary Reset?). We are NO where near end of this major crisis, which ends K's Winter
My LT #Copper chart tells me, that we may very well see the crisis (with various phases) continue until end-21 or beginning of '22. That is for the bottom in the economic activity which means, that repercussions may be felt way into 2023-25. No where near the end of this crisis!
Zooming in on #Copper. This is path down I expect and the fundamental story behind. Next, final deflationary bust! Everything to be sold off before bounce (months) and all-clear feeling. Final phase of crisis is stagflation as economy continues to slump while prices start to rise
So - one more deflationary bust. Observe, #CRB has reached my target (from more than 2 years ago). I still however (due to EW count) think we have one more decline before SECULAR BOTTOM.
#Wheat in similar Ending Diagonal, which defined the direction for #Oil (and for Gold miners btw). One more strong deflationary bust before SECULAR BOTTOM.
#Oil seems to suggest same. Rally since last bottom is correctional - hence we will likely see even more negative prices, than what we saw in April. This will be (is already) extremely deflationary and puts a lot of pressure on a range of countries relying on selling Oil.
Also #AUDUSD suggests one more low - before SECULAR BOTTOM. AUDUSD is an inflation gauge. Hence, major drop suggests more deflationary pressure
So - a long range of charts suggest another Deflationary Bust - which is in line with the correctional structure of the decline in #SP500. First wave down in this crisis is an ABC. Bottom in March was A. Now we are in B. Soon wave C will develop in Deflationary Bust
The Deflationary Bust can also be observed from #TIPS. The structure of this price development, tells me, that the coming decline in TIPS will the absolute strongest move. Really not so difficult to imagine if we look at the extreme developments in markets and real economy.
And at same time, we may see spike in yields. That is what this structure for US 10 yr yields indicate. So, strong decline in inflation and pot. spike in yields. Will cause REAL RATES to soar. Not for long - but for a period, which will create a lot of havoc in a fragile economy
As deflation soars, #USD #DXY will rally strongly. This Monthly chart for DXY suggests a strong wave y to ~122. The wave "y" indicates an extremely powerful and extended move. Only few stops on the way. Fed will have to go EXTREME (makes you wonder what will be announced!)
So I think the calls for "The Great Monetary Inflation" or the likes are too early. We have not seen final and STRONGEST phase in Deflation. And the coming bust and shortage of USD are going to wreck havoc of among Precious Metals. I see no way around a crash in Gold and Silver
#Silver showing same structure as in illiquid phase in 2008 (Q1-Q3). Strong decline ahead
And Gold in a very Bearish setup on Weekly - with LT-target of 800-890 USD.
Strong #USD will also crush #EmergingMarkets. Current bounce is only temporary. Soon crash continues!
Conclusion: Soon Deflationary bust to continue, which will be a "Sell everything" to get USD. #DXY #USD will soar, which will crush Precious Metals, #Equities etc. and force Fed into something extraordinary to stop deflation spiral. That will mark SECULAR BOTTOM. Stay safe!!🙏
Remember, my service and website will be launched soon! A discount will be given to first subscribers to sign up. Service include weekly livestream sessions, where I explain my charts in details and you will be able to ask questions. So stay tuned for #HZupdates in a new format!
That is all for now! Please stay safe! Best regards from Copenhagen! 👍😀
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