Thread by @Samermosis

@Qatargas will choose partners for its massive #LNG expansion by year-end & its not unlikely #Qatar will choose an Asian NOC, such as China's CNPC or CNOOC, as a core partner. Why? Well its never just about economics in the Gulf #oil and #gas (thread) #OOTT #ONGT

Choosing an Asian equity parter would reflect how #LNG is more than just an export for Qatar, it's a tool for the small #GCC nation, currently embargoed by its neighbors, to create global interdependencies

This makes even more sense given the difficulty #Qatar is having resigning long-term contracts amidst its marriage to oil-indexation. Bringing on end-users as equity partners is the perfect solution here. As the chart shows, the scale of Qatar's uncontracted position is massive

Chinese investors are not new to this. Remember CNOOC is a foundational investor in #Russia's Arctic #LNG 2, Chinese companies in aggregate have one of the industry's largest MENA equity #oil positions & CNPC was a core partner in Iran's South Pars Expansion before sanctions

Of course, energy as foreign policy is as old as headaches, but its still important when assessing @qatarpetroleum's commercial strategy, which is intrinsically linked w/the state's fp (again not new, same goes for @Saudi_Aramco and as history shows Russian #naturalgas exports)

In this regard, over the last few years just as #Qatar has sought to expand its global relations, @qatarpetroleum has bought minority stakes in #oil or #gas projects in Kenya, Argentina, Brazil, Mexico, Morocco, Mozambique, Oman, South Africa and most recently Cote d'Ivoire

The FID on Golden Pass in the US also reflects this calculus- remember that decision came just as the Gulf embargo was heating up, and Qatar was trying to expand its influence in DC (This IS NOT saying it was the only reason for Golden Pass FID, project still viable otherwise)

This all unfolds as the #China/#US conflict escalates. Remember #Qatar has significant interdependencies w/US (Al Udeid Air Base). Bringing China into #LNG plans would be excellent geopolitical hedge given Qatar's delicate global position and China's growing #energy demand. (end)