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Jun 25, 2020 10 tweets 6 min read Read on X
1/ Q. How does #ContactTracing work again? How is that component of #TestTraceIsolate going so far?

A. Contact tracing is a tried and true #publichealth measure that’s been successfully used to contain other infectious diseases (see graphic). But there are challenges. Image
2/ When adapting this strategy for #COVID19:

First, because people are #contagious even BEFORE developing symptoms, tracing (identifying and notifying contacts) needs to happen quickly. But tracing takes time.
3/ There is also currently no #treatment to offer to individuals who test positive, so there is less personal incentive to cooperate. Instead, contacts are asked to #quarantine, not for their own benefit, but to reduce exposure to others.
4/ The period of quarantine, 14 days from the time of exposure, is a long one. This poses challenges in terms of time off from work--especially for those who cannot work from home.
5/ For contact tracing to succeed, there have to be enough tests to keep up with the pace of infection (and ideally, a faster turnaround for results). Few places in the US have met this goal.
6/ Several countries (including China, South Korea, and Germany) have successfully implemented contact tracing programs to #SlowtheSpread of the #coronavirus.

But in the US, there have been more difficulties...
7/ #NYC, the national epicenter of the #pandemic in March and April, began its contact tracing program on June 1.
The program relies on phone calls and home visits to reach cases and contacts, in part to allay privacy concerns of more technological approaches.
8/ STRENGTHS: Mobile #testing vans are planned for hard-hit neighborhoods. ~3000 contact tracers have been hired: more than half of whom are residents of communities most affected.
The city is also offering resources to contacts, such as paid hotel stays and food delivery.
9/ CHALLENGES: NYC statistics for the period of June 1-20: nychealthandhospitals.org/test-and-trace… report that tracers are often unable to locate infected people or gather their information.
For example, only ~42% of cases provided info about contacts. And few contacts wanted to stay in a hotel
10/ For more on the first few weeks of NYC’s contact tracing program: nytimes.com/2020/06/21/nyr…

And some practical strategies for building successful contact tracing programs to slow the spread of #COVID19 in the U.S.: catalyst.nejm.org/doi/full/10.10…

PHOTO CREDIT: …racingplaybook.resolvetosavelives.org

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More from @DearPandemic

Dec 22, 2022
How can I stay safe during the holidays?

➡️Think in terms of harm reduction. Don’t let the perfect be the enemy of the good.

dearpandemic.org/safe-holidays/

#covid #rsv #flu #HolidaysAreComing

1/
2/ Just in time for Christmas, #COVID is again on the rise.

#Flu and #RSV may be peaking—but remember that there are often as many cases *after* a peak as before it.

dearpandemic.org/are-cases-peak…
3/ How can we enjoy moments w/ family & friends & lower the risk of illness?

💥 Small steps you take to reduce risk are worthwhile. A little bit better…is a little bit better.

Prevention steps that work for COVID will reduce the risk of RSV, flu, & many other nasty viruses.
Read 14 tweets
May 4, 2022
1/ Q: Has almost everyone been infected with COVID by now?
A: Recent estimates suggest around 58% of the population in the US and over 70% in England have been previously infected, with BIG increases during the Omicron wave.

dearpandemic.org/numbers-infect…
2/ A recent @CDCgov MMWR report estimated seroprevalence from a convenience sample of blood collected for medical tests.

➡️Roughly 58% of Americans showed evidence of previous SARS-CoV-2 infection in their blood by Feb '22.

cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/7…? Image
3/ ➡️ During the Omicron wave from December 2021-February 2022, this estimate increased from 33% to 58%.
➡️ Rates vary a lot by age, ranging from 33.2% for those over age 65 to 75% for those under age 18.

cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/7… Image
Read 15 tweets
Apr 29, 2022
1/Q: Did getting exposed to fewer germs for the last 2 years weaken our immune systems?

We've been hearing this question a lot.
dearpandemic.org/fewer-germ-exp…
2/ Not likely. If your kids are suddenly getting sick a lot, this is likely due to “catching up” on exposures rather than a weakened immune system.
3/ Many families w/ young kids have been hunkered down for the better part of 2 years– a good % of a young child’s entire life. While isolation had *many* downsides, we can agree that not having to suction snot out of infant noses or clean up norovirus puke was a happy upside.
Read 18 tweets
Jan 27, 2022
1/ Q: Are cases peaking? That means it’s all downhill from here, right?

A: Sort of…. Remember that even if cases come down as quickly as they rise, there will be as many cases *after* the peak as before (think area under the curve).

dearpandemic.org/are-cases-peak…
2/ ➡️ And if the downward slope is *slower* than the rise, we will see *more* cases during the decline from a surge.
3/ Burning fast could be a silver lining of super transmissible #Omicron. Cases rose & fell quickly in S. Africa (w/ hospitalizations & deaths still lagging). The UK appears to have turned the Omicron corner. Many US states appear past their peak in cases, w/ regional variation:
Read 17 tweets
Dec 30, 2021
1/ Q: Case numbers are jumping QUICK! What should I be doing?

A: Share your gifts without sharing COVID. Helpful gestures come in many shapes.

dearpandemic.org/what-should-i-…

#Omicron #ThoseNerdyGirls
2/ One HUGE help: Cancel non-essential plans.

Unfortunately, this includes New Year’s Eve plans. The perfect storm of a new variant & holiday get-togethers is hitting communities & health care w/ FORCE! Testing is in short supply.
3/ Health care is under extreme pressure with surging cases. If you can avoid even one additional contact, you are helping. This is a temporary and urgent request (from a health care provider).

#MedTwitter #HCWs @IMPACT4HC
Read 10 tweets
Dec 21, 2021
1/ Q: Is it true that #Omicron is less severe than previous variants?

A: We HOPE so, but we don’t know yet. The evidence so far is mixed.

dearpandemic.org/is-omicron-les…
2/ We are WAY past due for some good variant news. But pinning our #Omicron hopes on a less virulent variant is not wise for 2 reasons:

1) It might not be less severe in those who are “immune naïve” (neither vaccinated nor with a previous infection—still millions of people).
3/ 2) Many more infections *even* if less severe can still lead to an avalanche of hospitalizations and deaths, and the risk of long Covid.

@AdamJKucharski raised this last December w/ the rise of Alpha:
Read 25 tweets

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