A. Contact tracing is a tried and true #publichealth measure that’s been successfully used to contain other infectious diseases (see graphic). But there are challenges.
First, because people are #contagious even BEFORE developing symptoms, tracing (identifying and notifying contacts) needs to happen quickly. But tracing takes time.
3/ There is also currently no #treatment to offer to individuals who test positive, so there is less personal incentive to cooperate. Instead, contacts are asked to #quarantine, not for their own benefit, but to reduce exposure to others.
4/ The period of quarantine, 14 days from the time of exposure, is a long one. This poses challenges in terms of time off from work--especially for those who cannot work from home.
5/ For contact tracing to succeed, there have to be enough tests to keep up with the pace of infection (and ideally, a faster turnaround for results). Few places in the US have met this goal.
6/ Several countries (including China, South Korea, and Germany) have successfully implemented contact tracing programs to #SlowtheSpread of the #coronavirus.
But in the US, there have been more difficulties...
7/ #NYC, the national epicenter of the #pandemic in March and April, began its contact tracing program on June 1.
The program relies on phone calls and home visits to reach cases and contacts, in part to allay privacy concerns of more technological approaches.
8/ STRENGTHS: Mobile #testing vans are planned for hard-hit neighborhoods. ~3000 contact tracers have been hired: more than half of whom are residents of communities most affected.
The city is also offering resources to contacts, such as paid hotel stays and food delivery.
9/ CHALLENGES: NYC statistics for the period of June 1-20: nychealthandhospitals.org/test-and-trace… report that tracers are often unable to locate infected people or gather their information.
For example, only ~42% of cases provided info about contacts. And few contacts wanted to stay in a hotel
1/ Q: Has almost everyone been infected with COVID by now?
A: Recent estimates suggest around 58% of the population in the US and over 70% in England have been previously infected, with BIG increases during the Omicron wave.
3/ ➡️ During the Omicron wave from December 2021-February 2022, this estimate increased from 33% to 58%.
➡️ Rates vary a lot by age, ranging from 33.2% for those over age 65 to 75% for those under age 18.
2/ Not likely. If your kids are suddenly getting sick a lot, this is likely due to “catching up” on exposures rather than a weakened immune system.
3/ Many families w/ young kids have been hunkered down for the better part of 2 years– a good % of a young child’s entire life. While isolation had *many* downsides, we can agree that not having to suction snot out of infant noses or clean up norovirus puke was a happy upside.
1/ Q: Are cases peaking? That means it’s all downhill from here, right?
A: Sort of…. Remember that even if cases come down as quickly as they rise, there will be as many cases *after* the peak as before (think area under the curve).
2/ ➡️ And if the downward slope is *slower* than the rise, we will see *more* cases during the decline from a surge.
3/ Burning fast could be a silver lining of super transmissible #Omicron. Cases rose & fell quickly in S. Africa (w/ hospitalizations & deaths still lagging). The UK appears to have turned the Omicron corner. Many US states appear past their peak in cases, w/ regional variation:
Unfortunately, this includes New Year’s Eve plans. The perfect storm of a new variant & holiday get-togethers is hitting communities & health care w/ FORCE! Testing is in short supply.
3/ Health care is under extreme pressure with surging cases. If you can avoid even one additional contact, you are helping. This is a temporary and urgent request (from a health care provider).