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Happy to see my new paper "Measuring the Regional Economic Costs of #Brexit: Evidence up to 2019" feature in @FinancialTimes. For interactive map ➡️ brexitcost.org, the FT article ➡️ ft.com/content/90e988…, the paper ➡️ bit.ly/2C9BOIg a short summary ⬇️ 1...
We use the synthetic control method previously used by @JohnSpringford @bornecon @MSchularick studying #Brexit-vote economic impact on the UK as a whole, just that we study regional economic output. The UK wide exercise is published in the @EJ_RES bit.ly/3j2zt2V 2...
We apply (a lot of variations) on regional quarterly GDP as well as annual district-level Gross-value added data for the UK. In total, for districts we construct a total of 100+ synthetic control estimates to assess concerns of overfitting - below plot is the case of Lewisham 3..
Each dark curve represents a different synthetic control estimate constructed using different varying-sized donor pool sets. The blue line is the actual, the red-line represents the ensemble estimate. The gap between the synthetic controls and the actual is quite obvious. 4..
Lewisham is estimated to have lost around 2k pounds per capita as of 2018 due to the Brexit-vote. We produce interactive visualisations on brexitcost.org district-by-district and region-by-region, check them out...5..
We classify district into #Brexit-vote winners and losers - guess what, the Losers outnumber the winners at least 2:1 with output being lower in at 250 out of 380 districts... 6...
What captures variation in what areas are #Brexit winner & or Loser? For every 1p.p. ⬆️ support for Brexit in 2016, the gap between a district output and its synthetic control as of 2018 is 0.1 p.p. ⬆️. #Brexit is already hurting #Leave voting areas the most. 7...
What drives the #Brexit-vote output losses? The scary observation is that the employment gains post 2016 may be perfectly rationalizable with firms increasing use of labor & reducing capital investments in response to the Brexit uncertainty 8...
This produces a picture of employment + payroll gains, despite productivity losses -- highlighting that once a No Deal #Brexit becomes reality, there may be significant layoffs as most employment gains since 2016 were temporary not supported by productivity gains 9...
May be of interest to @D_Blanchflower @ImranRasul3 @bornecon @MSchularick @chakrabortty @t0nyyates @helenbevan @BjarkeMoeller @VMRConstancio @SoumayaKeynes
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Thiemo Fetzer
@fetzert
I want to share a new paper. Its relevant to #GE2019. The findings are quite exemplary of the misguidedness of much of economic & social policy under the #ConservativeParty. It should be a harbinger to wary voters: there is more of the same under the Tories & with #Brexit. 1/..
The short summary: the reform to housing benefit from 2011 onwards was intended to save the public purse hundreds of millions. But quite the reverse happened: not only did it create huge amounts of misery and agony, it also ended up not saving the public much money at all. 2/..
What happened? From April 2011 onwards, local housing allowance was massively cut from covering up to the median level of rents, to only cover up to the 30th percentile of market rents. Here is a map of how this affected households in terms of expected losses per week. 3/..
Read 17 tweets
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Thiemo Fetzer
@fetzert
So why I think the #GE2019 is really not done yet. A short thread. The summary: I think a hung parliament is still a very likely and a desirable outcome for the UK. I first present some evidence on the former, and then my view on the desirability on the latter. #Brexit
1. Most opinion polls now point to a #Cons maj, including yesterday's @YouGov MRP. MRP is great in the tool box, but still relies on raw polling data. Here, bit.ly/2q0iSFW, I argue here that YouGov samples for BES do appear structurally different and potentially biased
2. Opinion polls are still mostly conducted at national level, ignoring constituency-level factors. My PhD student @EleAla shows that in UK, turnout tends to be systematically lower the "safer" a seat is. And this effect is increasing in the poll national lead of the incumbent..
Read 18 tweets
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Thiemo Fetzer
@fetzert
On my way to Berlin for the launch of @ForumNewEconomy. I ll be talking about "Why #Brexit votes happen: An evaluation of the impact of #austerity".
Unfortuantely, there is much more I would like to say... but can't within 10 minutes. So here is what's missing out...
In the run up to 2016 #EURef, the UK was actually slowly and gradually becoming more pro European if you believe 30 @EurobarometerEU studies since 2000.
The 2016 #EURef is culmination of political developments with UK's electoral system playing a crucial role. Here a short thread why & how #austerity induced voter shifts affected election dynamics, pushing Cameron into holding #Brexit referendum:
Read 8 tweets

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