Profile picture
, 8 tweets, 8 min read
On my way to Berlin for the launch of @ForumNewEconomy. I ll be talking about "Why #Brexit votes happen: An evaluation of the impact of #austerity".
Unfortuantely, there is much more I would like to say... but can't within 10 minutes. So here is what's missing out...
In the run up to 2016 #EURef, the UK was actually slowly and gradually becoming more pro European if you believe 30 @EurobarometerEU studies since 2000.
The 2016 #EURef is culmination of political developments with UK's electoral system playing a crucial role. Here a short thread why & how #austerity induced voter shifts affected election dynamics, pushing Cameron into holding #Brexit referendum:
I ll talk about the impact of #Austerity on these developments, using #UKIP support along with wider measures of dissatisfaction as proxy variables. The paper has just come out in the @AEAjournals and is available open access here: wrap.warwick.ac.uk/106313/
The 2016 #EUref was crucially swung by protest voters. Quite a few of them voting #Leave not expecting a #Leave victory -- many of them now regret their vote choice as I show here:
The characterization in media of #Leave and #Remain mostly capture average voters, not the marginal voter that actually delivered the victory and will be crucial in upcoming #GE2019 - I tackled some comments here: bit.ly/2OU9I89 @lsebrexitvote
Many of 2016 #austerity fueled protest votes are now swinging back as I suggest in this paper papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cf… with a write up here blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexit/2018/11… @LSEpoliticsblog
A #GE2019 is the worst way to resolve the crisis. It threatens to maximize the share of population that perceive to be loosing. The UK's electoral system & lack of federal settlement is tearing apart the country & many #Leave voters rightly feel betrayed.
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh.

Enjoying this thread?

Keep Current with Thiemo Fetzer

Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

Twitter may remove this content at anytime, convert it as a PDF, save and print for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video

1) Follow Thread Reader App on Twitter so you can easily mention us!

2) Go to a Twitter thread (series of Tweets by the same owner) and mention us with a keyword "unroll" @threadreaderapp unroll

You can practice here first or read more on our help page!

Related hashtags

#Brexit #austerity #EUref #UKIP #Leave #Remain #GE2019

More from @fetzert see all

Profile picture
Thiemo Fetzer
@fetzert
Super thrilled to announce that "Did #Austerity cause #brexit?" has just been accepted for publication at the @AEAjournals in the American Economic Review. Short thread on whole paper available here wrap.warwick.ac.uk/106313/...
The paper traces the rapid rise of #UKIP after 2010, and the developing of anti-establishment and growing polarisation along key socio-economic divides over time.
And highlights that #austerity policies, in particular, the hollowing out of the welfare state since 2010 induced many individuals to adopt anti-establishment sentiment -- these were successfully channeled into votes for #Leave and #UKIP
Read 9 tweets
Profile picture
Thiemo Fetzer
@fetzert
The #RevokeArticle50 #RevokeArticle50Petition is the petition that has seen broadest support of any parliamentary petition in UK's political history if I am not wrong. It is inconceivable that among the signatories there are only individuals who voted #Remain in 2016...
Yet, most opinion polls still suggest only a small swing to #Remain. How can we make sense of this?
A remarkable observation from online polls such as the British Election study @besresearch (using @YouGov) is that among participants in these polls, self-reported turnout in the EU referendum is huge -- 92.5% of BES panel wave participants stated that they voted in the #EURef
Read 13 tweets
Profile picture
Thiemo Fetzer
@fetzert
Going after #Trump? Evidence from the #tradewar. This is a brief thread describing a new paper that it is joint work with Carlo Schwarz @Warwick_Econ PhD student (going on the market this year). The paper circulates as @cepr_org - ungated WP ssrn.com/abstract=33490…
The question we ask is quite simple: were the retaliation measures triggered by China, the #EU, and the #NAFTA against Trump's tariffs politically targeted? We study the trade escalation triggered by US steel tariffs and various #Section301 #tariffs.
Interestingly, this is the first trade dispute in a long time that actually escalated to that level. The last case that came close was also the case of steel tariffs in the early 2000s -- but then retaliation measures, while being threatened, were never triggered as US caved in.
Read 13 tweets

Related threads

Profile picture
Francis Jones
@senoJsicnarF
I continue to be struck by how far some Remainers are unwilling to accept that Brexiteers really believe in Brexit and Leavers really want to Leave.

#Brexit

/1
I have to assume it's because Remainers themselves have never had a nationalistic thought in their lives, and tend to come from the left of the political spectrum. So they find it difficult to accept that Leavers (or their core element) are sincere right-wing nationalists.

/2
It's a bit like Dawkins atheists who can't quite bring themselves to believe that religious people are genuinely religious. So religion must be explained away as something else, e.g. a mechanism for controlling women or the poor.

/3
Read 14 tweets
Profile picture
Lord Snoutintrough #FBPE
@Rowland72James
#BREXIT craziness update so maybots deal is blown out of the water l. Similarly corbyns vote of no confidence fails and won't be backed by SNP and lib dems
Despite her #BREXIT deal being defeated by biggest margin a government has lost a vote ever maybot seeks concessions on backstop despite being told to bog off by the EU with no realistic hope of a different answer
Corbyn meanwhile refuses to talk #BREXIT without no deal being ruled out despite knowing she can't do this whilst maybot makes no concessions either.
Read 14 tweets
Profile picture
SBM Intelligence
@sbmintelligence
Last Friday, @MBuhari suspended the Chief Justice of On Friday, 25 January, 2019, President Muhammadu Buhari suspended the Chief Justice of @SupremeCourtNg, Justice Walter #Onnoghen, pending the completion of his trial at @CCBNigeria's tribunal.
@MBuhari immediately swore in Justice Ibrahim Tanko Mohammed as the acting CJN.

In a swift reaction, @NigBarAssoc issued a statement unequivocally rejecting and condemning “this attempted coup against the Nigerian Judiciary” and fixed an emergency meeting for today.
@SPNigeria & and Speaker of @HouseNGR, both condemned @NGRPresident’s move.

It is worthy to note that to legally remove the CJN, the other 2 arms of govt, @AsoRock & @nassnigeria have to be in agreement on the issue, so a 2/3 majority is needed at @NGRSenate.
Read 23 tweets
Profile picture
Mujtaba Rahman
@Mij_Europe
#Brexit continues to dominate UK debate and indeed our own coverage. But what about #EU risks in 2019? Thread for us EU watchers: @CER_Grant @JeremyCliffe @MMQWalker @MehreenKhn @pmdfoster @aqbyrne @PedderSophie @tom_nuttall @clichfield1 @FSanti_ @BBCkatyaadler
1/ % of May’s deal passing are rising. DUP/Eurosceptics sounding more conciliatory; big mood change yesterday. But still v long way to go. ERG suspect May will hide behind Commons on A50 extension. Peace moves could be overtaken by events (backbench amendments)
2/ EU’s concern with Brexit is growing; no longer simple occupation of TF50, WPA50, COREPER and Sherpas; many more voices now involved as clock runs down to no-deal. But #Brexit still not biggest concern for EU—yet. So what is?
Read 17 tweets
Profile picture
Lord Snoutintrough #FBPE
@Rowland72James
#brexit seems to be all about feeling over fact and this is especially true of the ReesMogg ERG faction of the Tory right.
I never bought the line that #brexit is about Democracy because most of the Tory right had zero enthusiasm for improving democracy in the UK few of them care about unelected house of lords the unfair FPTP electoral system or transparency on the contrary
Most of the Tory right are interested only in constitutional changes that suit them and if anything strive to be as little democratically accountable as possible.
Read 23 tweets
Profile picture
Katy Hayward
@hayward_katy
*Brexit at the Border: Voices from local communities in the Central Border Region of Ireland/Northern Ireland*
An initiative by @QUBelfast & @europe_icban to gather data on the immediate & anticipated effects of #Brexit for those living on the #Border
qub.ac.uk/brexit/Brexitf…
1/10
Here are some of the key findings from the report in slide form.
First an overview of the study itself:
Rich qualitative data (online survey & focus groups) gathered across the Central Border Region. Detailed examples & viewpoints heard from people on both sides of #border.
2/10
Respondents to the survey came from across the 8 local authority areas of the Central Border Region, moreorless equally from both sides of the border. 50/50 male/female. 80% 31-65 yrs.
There were far fewer Leave-voting respondents so they got extra attention in our analysis.
3/10
Read 10 tweets

Trending hashtags

#Brexodus #PeoplesVote #Brexit #EUCO #GDP #brexit #Backstop #EP2019 #NoDeal #RevokeArt50Petition #RevokeArt50Now #Management #RevokeArticle50Petition #Onnoghen #EUref #CambridgeAnalytica #nodeal #Catastrophuc #TTIP #noBrexit #Lexit #minimumwage #BREXIT #poverty #FutureofEurope
Follow Us on Twitter!

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!

This site is made by just three indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3.00/month or $30.00/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal Become our Patreon

Thank you for your support!