Thread by @fetzert

So why I think the #GE2019 is really not done yet. A short thread. The summary: I think a hung parliament is still a very likely and a desirable outcome for the UK. I first present some evidence on the former, and then my view on the desirability on the latter. #Brexit

1. Most opinion polls now point to a #Cons maj, including yesterday's @YouGov MRP. MRP is great in the tool box, but still relies on raw polling data. Here, bit.ly/2q0iSFW, I argue here that YouGov samples for BES do appear structurally different and potentially biased

2. Opinion polls are still mostly conducted at national level, ignoring constituency-level factors. My PhD student @EleAla shows that in UK, turnout tends to be systematically lower the "safer" a seat is. And this effect is increasing in the poll national lead of the incumbent..

3. So, a #Tory-lead in polls in a #Tory-held constituency, tends to significantly reduce #turnout - There are good reasons to believe that in #GE2019 this mechanism is not going to play out as usual as election is ultimately about #Brexit, & I expect a lot of expressive voting.

4. The consequence? This may even put some safe seats into play and may create an unpredicted swing in seats that many commentators may not have on the radar.

5. Turnout 1). In opinion polls, voters tend to overstate past turnout. In BES, 92% stated they voted in the #EURef. This is not true. Yet, as we do not know what is the true response, MRP may produce biased estimates if those that did not turn out were more/less pro #Remain.

6. Turnout 2). Most polls still indicate that among those likely to turnout, there are still undecideds. This group is usually stripped from polls (where to put them?). And again, this may be biasing results as uncertainty over choice options is bigger for #remain leaners.

7. Turnout 3). Voter registration in 2019 is at unprecedented levels. Nearly 9.7 million people #RegisteredtoVote in 2019 alone. #GE2017 saw a turnout bump.

8. Turnout 4). Registration increase in 2019 is more strongly driven by young demographic (which is less likely to participate in polls btw -- see bit.ly/2q0iSFW) and younger demographic appears more strongly pro #remain.

9. #Brexit protest voting. As I show in my paper "Did #Austerity Cause #Brexit? - wrap.warwick.ac.uk/106313", much of the electoral dynamics in the run up to #EURef can be attributed to #austerity, with support for #UKIP and #Leave capturing to a significant extent protest voting.

10. Since 2016, support for #Leave has been upheld by the following mechanism. A non-negligible % of 2016 #Leave voters switch back to #Remain (see @RemainerNow), a non-negligible % of #Remain voters support #Leave now - likely not out of conviction but due to perception ..

11. that the 2016 #EURef set up a new norm to be adhered to. This may overstate present #Leave support & possibly #Conservative #BXP support & could affect election outcomes as much polling is reweighted to represent the 2016 #Leave/#Remain split or past stated preferences.

12. Why is a Hung Parliament good for Britain and nothing to be afraid of? UK politics has struggled for quite some time with an issue of representation. In 2015, #Cons won a majority by winning 60% of English seats on 40% of popular vote.

13. A majority is effectively ruled by a minority government. The splitting of votes that happened then, thanks to #UKIP and can have a repeat this time around. A hung parliament will put electoral reform back on the agenda. This is desirable and can prevent the further...

14. fragmentation of political landscape. FPTP is not great in more pluralistic and heterogenous societies; it also makes (a few) perceived marginal MP's easy targets for bullying and potentially very targeted foreign interference as in essence, only a few votes matter (not all)

15. A second referendum is desirable as the current #Brexit deal was not advocated or campaigned for, even by the #Leave campaign. The 2019 election may well produce the following outcome.. a small Conservative majority, but easily significantly more than 17.4 million votes for..

16. Parties advocating a #confirmatory #PeoplesVote. While #Cons and #BXP may very likely together significantly less than 17.4 million votes, even 16.8 million votes. This will or could be yet another shock to the perceptions of #democratic norms, but will deprive the right wing

17. Of abusing the term of "the will of the people". What we have seen in the past 3.5 years is the stuff that democracies die off. #Brexit @simonjhix @SimonTilford @ImranRasul3 @SiobhanBenita @lewis_goodall @mirko_draca