Thread by @santhoshd

The Indian Govt continues to ignore @WHO Community Transmission definition, as this @abantika77 interview shows (h/t @soutikBBC)

By Health Secy's concocted criterion, USA -83% active cases fm 19 out of 50 states+DC+Puerto Rico+4 other islands- has local txn, outbreaks/clusters..

https://twitter.com/soutikBBC/status/1287949633260384256

WHO defines Community Txn thus. Can Health Secy clarify
1. How many of 15L cases/daily new 50K cases are from known transmission chains?
2. Why is 23% infected population outcome of Delhi seroprevalence study not "Large"?
3. How many clusters in each Indian city/town/village?...

In a study, IgG antibodies were found in 23% of those sampled in Delhi. If authorities think the study is valid, assuming 80% of infected were asymptomatic & 20 Cr population, Delhi should hv had 3.68L cases by Jul 10. Instead it confirmed only 1.09L...
indianexpress.com/article/explai…

And yet, among the Top 10 nations by case count,

Spain which downgraded from Comm Txn when new cases declined precipitously
Russia where Putin Law prevails

and India are the only ones not classifying themselves as in Comm Txn...
Source: who.int/emergencies/di…

Why are experts, who aren't beholden to the Govt or working in ICMR/Health Ministry, convinced that India is in the Community Transmission stage?...
deccanchronicle.com/nation/current…

Why are individual states (Kerala & West Bengal) declaring that there's community transmission occuring?...
indianexpress.com/article/india/…

This begs the question: why is the Govt obsessed with avoiding the label?

Is it because having frittered away lockdowns w/o scaling infra, the Govt can't yet test everyone or provide comprehensive protection to medical/non-medical staff in every COVID/Non-COVID setting?

A #Pune sero-prevalence study (n=1664, 20 Jul-5 Aug) by @UnivOfPune, @IISERPune, @THSTIFaridabad & @VCMCFoundation, suggests extensive #COVID__19 spread in the areas chosen.

But India still has no community transmission. Only clusters of cases.
Details at cms.unipune.ac.in/~bspujari/Covi…

The 2nd #Delhi serosurvey suggests 29.1% of those surveyed have #COVID__19 anti-bodies.
Sampling done between 1-7 Aug
Total Samples: 15K (NW Delhi 2200, West 2145, Central 1548...)
hindustantimes.com/delhi-news/sec…

According to @Thyrocare, tests they conducted across 2.7L people in 600 Indian cities over the last 7 weeks reveal that 26% of the sampled population had #Covid_19 antibodies.

@velumania projects that up to 40% of Indians might have antibodies by Dec'20.
deccanherald.com/national/one-i…

#Punjab #COVID Anti-body Survey Results (Aug 1-17):
27.7% seroprevalence among 1250 samples taken from containment zones in 5 districts.
(Amritsar: 40%, Ludhiana: 35.6%, SAS Nagar: 33.2%, Patiala: 19.2%, Jalandhar:10.8%).
tribuneindia.com/news/punjab/27…

ICMR's serological survey implies we had 64.68 LAKH #COVID19 infections by early May (Official case count at the time: ~86 thousand).

8.56 Lakh were in officially designated Zero Case districts (233 districts were supposedly infection free in May).
theprint.in/health/india-m…

An @nberpubs working paper by @MinuPhilip3, Debraj Ray & S. Subramanian decoded India's "low" #COVID19 CFR.

Never mind that questions abt under-counting fatalities linger, it suggests that even the official count, age-adjusted, is relatively high.
Paper: nber.org/papers/w27696.…

Authors of a May #COVID19 serosurvey were forced to omit high prevalence data (36% Dharavi; 48% Ahmedabad; 30% Calcutta) according to @ScienceTales in @ttindia

Modi portrays the unplanned lockdown as a success despite mounting evidence to the contrary
telegraphindia.com/india/how-covi…

While #COVID19India data is obfuscated, the experience of patients who needed ICU beds has been horrendous: 4% got it as per routine. 7% had to follow up extensively. 85% had to use clout, escalate via SM, pay bribes.

4% did not get an ICU bed at all.
indiatoday.in/india/story/su…

Masterful, even if distressing, summary by Dr @ShashiTharoor of #BJP's #COVID19 failures, scale & data included:
1. Ignored warnings, acted late
2. Shock & awe lockdown
3. National upheaval & spread
4. Economic calamity
5. #Modi not governing but ruling

ICMR 2nd Seroprevalence Survey: 1-7 Aug; 29082 samples, 700 villages/wards, 70 districts.
7.1% of adult population exposed to #COVID19 (vs 0.73% in 11 May-4 Jun survey)
Mumbai: 57.8% (slum); 17.4% (non-slum)
ndtv.com/india-news/cor…

Member of Committee tasked by Central Govt to provide estimates: Half of India's population is likely to have #COVID19 by next Feb.

30% already infected (40.5 CRORE people; official tally 75 LAKH; latest sero-survey estimate: 14%).
ndtv.com/india-news/50-…

States competing with each other to report fewer #COVID19 cases, government asking test providers to not pick up samples, testing dropped by 65%... says Thyrocare.

https://twitter.com/PavitraParekh1/status/1321375519040942081

A @BBCWorld article by @soutikBBC chronicles efforts of @Charakan & other volunteers who painstakingly sifted through print/TV news to record Kerala's #COVID19 deaths. Even a relatively well-administered public health dept sees significant under-counting.
bbc.com/news/world-asi…

Globally, drug/vaccine trials are paused if a participant develops any adverse effects.

@Teensthack reports Bharat Biotech's Covaxin trials continued despite
73 adverse events in 1st batch of 402
18 in 2nd batch of 394
1 hospitalized for viral pneumonitis
economictimes.indiatimes.com/industry/healt…

The Aug-Sep ICMR Serosurvey results estimates >SEVEN CRORE Indians infected. For every officially reported case, 26-32 cases were not. Prevalence up 10x since previous study in May.
Study Estimate: 7,43,00,000
Official Cases: 56,43,477 (22 Sep)
papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cf…

The @IMAIndiaOrg expresses shock over the Indian Government's claim that only 162 doctors lost their lives due to #COVID19 when the toll is actually four and a half times more at 734.

https://twitter.com/IMAIndiaOrg/status/1356915222636679169

The latest serological survey conducted in Delhi suggests over half of the population might already be exposed to #COVIDー19
Conducted: 15-23 Jan 2021
Samples Taken: 28000 across all 272 wards in city
Prevalence: 56.13%
weather.com/en-IN/india/co…

Dodgy entries, fake names & numbers, instances of profiting from unused test kits... what @santoshchitra writes in @IndianExpress about #COVID19 testing might explain why serosurveys show up to 50% of residents infected while official stats remain at 0.8%.
indianexpress.com/article/expres…

No takers for Covaxin even when offered free: of 7 countries mentioned in this story, only Myanmar has accepted Covaxin doses. Subsequent grants to Afghanistan, Barbados & Dominican Republic are also strangely of the UK's Covishield -
indiatoday.in/amp/coronaviru…

Where India is in #COVID19 #vaccination drive: @AnooBhu summarizes in @IndiaSpend.

~94 LAKH doses so far, 5.06 CRORE more doses to meet Govt's 3 Cr target (2 doses/person), before the next priority group (elderly/co-morbid) of 27 Cr people/54 Cr doses.
indiaspend.com/covid-19/a-mon…

Thanks to #ModiTax of #AtmaNirbharBharat, India's premier bio labs are busy trying to prove imported plastics have no Indian alternatives, instead of working on #SARSCoV2 genome sequencing; achieve barely 4.4% of 80,000 sequences target by 24 Feb.
thewire.in/health/india-g…

Data implying #CovidVaccine are working:
1. Israel
In 60+ age group (90% vaccinated): Infections 41%⬇️, Hospitalizations 31%⬇️. In <60 age group (30% vaccinated), Infections 12%⬇️, Hospitalizations 5%⬇️ (n=250K)
nature.com/articles/d4158…

2. UK
Vaccinated health-care workers 53% less likely to test positive Vs unvaccinated colleagues. (n=46K)...

3. Earlier, @ClalitHealth released data based on vaccinated & unvaccinated Israelis (600K each)...

21-27 Days after 1st dose
Morbidity 66%⬇️, Severity 80%⬇️, Mortality 84%⬇️

7 Days after 2nd dose
Morbidity 94%⬇️, Severity 92%⬇️, Mortality 85-100%⬇️
translate.google.com/translate?sl=i…

The @NEJM has a detailed study published based on the @ClalitResearch data:
nejm.org/doi/full/10.10…

While E484Q & L452R #COVID19 mutations have been discovered elsewhere earlier, the combination of both is novel to India.
timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/covid-19…

Migrant workers bore the brunt of the draconian Apr-May 2020 lockdown. The Jharkhand government has now discovered that workers flown back by employers to restart work had to repay the airfare.
hindustantimes.com/india-news/far…

A @BBCWorld investigation described by @jugalrp here reveals that there was either no consultation at all, or no records exist of any consultation, before Modi announced the planet's harshest lockdown.
[English version:

https://twitter.com/jugalrp/status/1375063109816045570

]

Science-deniers globally hv struggled to sound rational while mocking #COVIDー19 precautions. BJP's Assam Health Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma asserts that masks are unnecessary because he says so & because the beauty parlour business ought to flourish.

Globally, nations are in race to get all eligible vaccinated ASAP.

In Indian health bureaucrat's world, some people don't "need" it (not health workers? Or statistically unlikely to die if infected?) but "want" it.

Seinfeld's Soup Nazi concedes defeat.

https://twitter.com/ANI/status/1379396386798465032

Modi will soon put India back at #2 in global #COVID19 table.

Despite attempts to prevent him from doing so... under-testing, under-reporting, fudging, ignoring data that 1 official case = 90 uncounted.

Not 2nd Wave, it's #Modiwave. #ModiHaiToMumkinHai

theprint.in/health/india-i…

Gujarat's pandemics: #COVIDSecondWave + Data Suppression.

Official Vadodara fatalities are 272 since Mar2020. However, just two hospitals saw 300 deaths in the last week.

Rajkot saw 184 deaths 8-12 Apr, but the "Death Audit Committee" recorded only 32.
timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/vadodara/…

Madhya Pradesh Medical Edu Minister says there's no award for hiding deaths. Meanwhile Modi crows about low fatalities every chance he gets.

Cremations only in Bhopal (08-12 Apr):
259 under COVID protocol

Madhya Pradesh official state-wide count:
135.
ndtv.com/india-news/mad…

Uttar Pradesh: flourishing black market in COVID19 testing, 4-7 days for results, 2 days for hospital beds, shortage of every infra/human resource needed... so shocking that UP Law Minister officially complained. How believable are the official numbers?
newsclick.in/COVID-19-UP-He…

.@CDDEP director R Laxminarayanan tells @billyperrigo it is probable India's cumulative count is 400 Million rather than official 13M figure.

Recall a serological survey last yr established tht in parts of UP/Bihar, only 1 in 130 cases was being reported.
time.com/5954416/india-…

In a @BBC story, @BBCVikas describes the Remdesivir black market (Rs 24000, 5x MRP) &
RT-PCR test delays
Near absence of Beds, Oxygen, X-Ray & CT Scans
Furnaces melting in crematoria
SM flooded with appeals for help.

Guess who's not reading. #WhereIsPM?
bbc.com/news/world-asi…

What if it turns out #COVIDIsAirborne? Pls spend 15 minutes on this peer-reviewed @TheLancet paper by @trishgreenhalgh, @jljcolorado, @kprather88, @zeynep, @DFisman and Robert Chip Schooley. Fairly accessible to a layperson.
#COVID19ON
thelancet.com/journals/lance…

Surat: 2 crematoriums cremated >700 last week. Official toll: 175.
Lucknow: 1 crematorium had twice the bodies on 6 days than govt count for city.
Bhopal: 187 cremated in 2 crematoriums. govt count 5.
Ahmedabad: 63 bodies left 1 hospital, govt count: 20.
reuters.com/world/india/no…

8AM Covid patient deteriorates.
10AM Finally manage to contact UP's "Integrated COVID Command Centre"
12PM ICCC says sending ambulance
9PM Ambulance comes. Hospital says no bed. Family contacts ICCC. No alternative
1AM Patient passes away at hospital gates
timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/lucknow/h…

Bangalore's War Room seems to be in a unilateral ceasefire against COVID19. Many pvt hospitals haven't received O2 for 3 days.

Swastik Hospital bought it in the black market, paying 6 lakh to fill 90 cylinders (cost 60000 normally) with 24 hrs' worth O2.
bangaloremirror.indiatimes.com/bangalore/cove…

Those praising Adar Poonawalla for Rs 400 & 600 per dose, recall wht he said abt 157.50: "It is not that we aren't making profits. We aren't making super profits, key to re-investing".

Charge us 2.5x & 3.8x more, add capacity & make more super profits.
ndtv.com/video/exclusiv…

Rohtak, Haryana: 3 crematoria handled 23 deceased under COVID protocols on a single day (21st Apr 2021).

The last time any COVID death was officially reported in Rohtak (see chart below the masthead) was on the 14th.

#धन्यवाद_मोदीजी for "world's lowest Fatality Rate".

Contrary to SII's claim that Covidshield pricing for states & pvt hospitals are absurdly low compared to those in other countries, @PrabhaRaghavan & @sasi_anil explain that India costs are 50-370% more than in other nations.
indianexpress.com/article/india/…

Low positivity rates after vaccination to date, say Health Ministry/ICMR:
Covishield
10Cr recvd 1 dose, 17145 (0.02%) +ive
1.57Cr recvd 2 doses, 5014 (0.03%) +ive

Covaxin
93Lk recvd 1 dose, 4208 (0.04%) +ive
17.4Lk recvd 2 doses, 695 (0.04%) +ive
thenewsminute.com/article/only-t…

Bharat Biotech confidently charges even more than the rates SII set for Covishield; demands Rs 600 per dose from state governments, Rs 1200 per dose from private hospitals.
#VaccineDiscrimination

Gautam Budh Nagar (NOIDA), Uttar Pradesh: official pandemic deaths between 1-23 April is 137. One crematorium alone performed 1185 cremations (865% more than officially reported count for entire district) under COVID protocols, as @ShikhaTOI reports:
timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/noida/fro…

Gujarat: Over 2 days (Apr 22-23), official pandemic deaths across Ahmedabad, Gandhinagar, Vadodara, Surat, Rajkot, Bhavnagar, Jamnagar were 191.

Cremations in those metros under COVID protocols added up to 1404 (735% more).
Source: @sandeshnews
sandesh.com/2-in-two-days-…

In an NYT article, @gettleman, @sameeryasir, @HariNYT & @suhasiniraj compile evidence similar to recent posts in this thread, presenting the horrifying chasm between official fatality counts & cremations occurring in various states.
nytimes.com/2021/04/24/wor…

Questioned about under-counting fatalities, Manohar Lal Khattar, Haryana's BJP CM:
We should not have debates over data now... Those who died will never come back. We will try our best to save everyone. No point debating if deaths is actually more or less.
indianexpress.com/article/india/…

Delhi -
Period: 18-24 April 2021
Official Fatalities: 1938
Cremations in 26 crematoriums under COVID19 Protocols: 3096 (59.8% More)
ndtv.com/delhi-news/del…

UP CM Ajay Bisht orders action against hospitals notifying lack of oxygen.
Meanwhile a Meerut hospital gets 150 cylinders daily, needs 300-400. A Firozabad hospital needs 100, gets 10. Agra hospitals discharged 1000 patients on 24th Apr due to lack of O2.
telegraphindia.com/india/coronavi…

While the Bisht-empowered police hunt down people who ask for help on Social Media, @psychia90 & Utpal Pathak report that UP residents are dying without even being tested. Another dastardly trick that explains the unbelievable UP COVID statistics.
scroll.in/article/993462…

"As scientists we provide evidence, policy is the job of govt" - Genetics Consortium INSACOG Chairman.

INSACOG has a duty to Indian citizens who employ them. It shd have directly warned citizens when the Modi govt shoved their findings under the carpet.
reuters.com/world/asia-pac…

Meerut, Uttar Pradesh, Period: Apr 19-30 2021

Official Count: 36
Surajkund Crematorium's registered COVID cremations: 264

Surajkund is 1 of 6 Meerut crematoria for Hindus, Jains & Sikhs. Besides, Muslims are ~36% of Meerut's population.
newslaundry.com/2021/05/01/ups…

Lucknow, Uttar Pradesh, Period: Apr 07-14, 2021
Official Deaths: 124
COVID Deaths according to Crematoria: > 400
ndtv.com/india-news/utt…

Lucknow, Uttar Pradesh, Period: 22-28 Apr 2021
Official COVID19 Deaths: 162
Bodies cremated in 2 Hindu crematoria: 1049

Deaths recorded in Muslim/Christian graveyards not included.

https://twitter.com/RishabhP14/status/1388488195201974273

Delhi, Period: 18-27 Apr 2021
Official COVID19 Deaths: 3049
Those laid to rest in cemetaries/crematoria under COVID19 protocols: 6958
(Data from Muslim burial grounds not included)
indianexpress.com/article/india/…

Bhopal, Period: 1-30 Apr 2021
Official COVID19 Deaths: 109
Those laid to rest in 4 crematoria/kabristans under COVID19 protocols: 2567
1273 "non-COVID" deaths also managed by these 4 (count in pre-COVID Apr'19 was 500). Bhopal has 10 crematoria/kabristans.
indianexpress.com/article/india/…

Gujarat; 15 Apr-02 May
Official COVID19 Deaths in some areas: 1591
COVID Deaths in crematoria: 13186 (830% MORE)

Hindutva Cheerleaders say don't worry, India's CFR is low. That's only because BJP strongholds are massively under-reporting. Visit @deepakpatel_91's timeline.

5500 Concentrators, 3200 Cylinders, 1.36L Remdesivir injections landed in Delhi Airport in the past 5 days: aid to Atmanirbhar Bharat.

No official will say what happened to them; Bihar, Delhi, Jharkhand, Odisha, Punjab, TN, WB hvnt recvd any of it yet.
scroll.in/article/993973…

Reporting only 12% of COVID fatalities registered in crematoria of 7 major cities & other areas in April isn't enough for Gujarat. It reduced RT-PCR testing by 30% in Ahmedabad (1.37L from 1.89L on 23 Apr). 40 of the city's 80 testing centres are shut.

https://twitter.com/deepakpatel_91/status/1389425802257764353

Varanasi, Uttar Pradesh, Modi's parliamentary constituency:
Harishchandra & Manikarnika ghats normally see 80-90 cremations daily, up to 300-400 now. Most death reports list cardiopulmonary failure.
Official COVID deaths: 10-11 daily.
bbc.com/news/world-asi…

The N440K variant seems to be increasing in Indian samples. Overall 4.9% of Indian submissions to GISAID contain the substitution, but Jan-Apr, it is 8.82% & in Apr, 10%...
biorxiv.org/content/10.110…

... but CCMB Advisor says there's no need to panic over the N440K's shorter incubation period & higher infectivity.
newindianexpress.com/states/andhra-…

Lucknow, Uttar Pradesh; 05 May 2021
Official COVID19 fatality count (entire district): 38
Cremated in 2 ghats in city by 9PM: 130
Report mentions that daily cremations at 2 ghats declined fm 250 a week ago to 130. 28th April's official fatalities were 13.

https://twitter.com/PragyaLive/status/1390179473069264897

Bengaluru; 18-22 Apr
Official COVID19 Fatalities (inc. 17 Apr): 527
Data from 6 Crematoriums (1 unavailable)+ Christian/Muslim graveyards: 860
thenewsminute.com/article/tnm-in…

Parts of Gujarat; Period: 01 Apr - 05 May
Official COVID19 fatalities: 1996 (official # for entire state for entire period - 3402)
Cremations under COVID protocols: 22480 (1126% more)
Data from Gujarat 'papers posted by @deepakpatel_91.

While India gasps in COVID19 agony, Tejasvi Surya communalizes pandemic response. Reads 16 Muslim names out of 212 War Room employees, lies that they were sacked the day before & insinuates they were responsible for a completely unrelated bribery scam.
thenewsminute.com/article/future…

UP govt sets up 700 "Help Desks" for cows, with Oximeters & Thermal Scanners. 5.73L cattle seem to be in better shape than humans who reportedly are "dropping like flies" in the pandemic.

Officials clarified that medical equipment was for staff, not cows.
newindianexpress.com/nation/2021/ma…

Lakhimpur, Uttar Pradesh: BJP MLA tells Bisht "there isn't a village that isn't gripped by COVID19." Lakhimpur is UP's largest district, had >40L residents in 2011.

Yet UP's official Lakhimpur figures are 48 deaths in 30 days (daily avrg 1.6) & 3767 active cases.

Who's lying?

The extent to which India under-counts varies depending on source.

In a terrifying @IHME_UW projection, cases peaked at 89.67 LAKHS on 26 Apr. Daily fatalities will peak at >15,000 on 17 May. Cumulative deaths are > 7 LAKHS (296% of official 2.36L)
covid19.healthdata.org/india?view=cum…

Gopalganj, Bihar
Official COVID19 fatalities in last 15 days: 2
COVID19 fatalities in Salempur, 1 village in Gopalganj, in last 15 days: 10
theguardian.com/world/2021/may…

Kasaragod, Kerala; 3 Feb 20 - 6 May 21
State's count of district's COVID19 fatalities: 122
District Medical Officer's count: at least 286
(DMO's total/active/recovered counts fail to account for 396 patients)
newindianexpress.com/states/kerala/…

Bhopal, Madhya Pradesh; Month of April 2021
Official COVID19 fatalities: 104
COVID19 Fatalities according to Crematoria: 2557, 2458% more
(out of a total 3811 cremations)
tribuneindia.com/news/nation/bh…

Lalitpur, Uttar Pradesh
Official fatalities in one month: 44
13 Villages (1K-7K population/village): "Cough-Fever" in every house
Pavangaon: 90% of population is ill
Shahpura: 80% of population is ill
Eravani: 50 died, no tests or treatment
bhaskar.com/local/mp/news/…

Travesty: COVID19 vaccines cost in pvt sector is world's costliest in a country ranked 138 in GDP per capita - @RemaNagarajan.

Modi govt in court says initial cost low bcos it was bulk purchase. Which genius proposed states shd purchase individually then?
timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/at-rs700…

In a @Telegraph article by @joerwallen, @Samaanlateef & @benfarmerDT, a Lucknow doctor states that official tally is only 5% of actual COVID19 deaths across UP.

Official fatalities in April: 3759. If the doctor is right, fatalities exceed 75000.
telegraph.co.uk/global-health/…

April
Jamnagar/Morbi/Porbandar: 244 official COVID deaths. Crematoria: ~2640-2940
Rajkot: 12 official deaths on 21st. One crematorium: 60-70
Kanpur: 22 official deaths on Apr 23-24. Crematoria: ~150
Patna: 39 official deaths on 25-26 Apr. 1 crematorium: 92
article-14.com/post/bjp-state…

After evidence from Israel/UK's vaccination drives, data from Italy: 13.7 million Italians vaccinated between 27 Dec 20- 03 May 21; 35 days after first dose, 80% reduction in infections, 90% reduction in hospitalisation & 95% reduction in deaths.
reuters.com/business/healt…

Madhya Pradesh, 1 Mar-30 Apr
Official COVID deaths (52 districts): 1752

Last rites in 26 districts: 26399
"Non-COVID": 14785 (200% normal count)
"COVID": 11467 (6500% official tally for 52 districts)
Khandwa had 147 last rites in Mar, but uncategorized
bhaskar.com/local/mp/bhopa…

Buxar, Bihar, 05-14 May 2021
Official COVID deaths in 10 days: 1
(according to Bihar State Bulletins)
Cremations in 1 crematorium: 789
(according to Divisional Commissioner)
scroll.in/latest/995184/…

Jhansi, Uttar Pradesh; 01 Mar - 19 May 2021
Official COVID Deaths in entire district: 318
Death Certificates issued by Municipal Corporation: 1354 (300 more pending)
Comparative Figures in 2020:
01 Apr-30 Jun: 677
01 Jan-31 Mar: 526
amarujala.com/uttar-pradesh/…

Gursarai Block, Jhansi, Uttar Pradesh; 01 Apr - 19 May 2021
Official COVID Deaths in the block: 0
Deaths reported by Gram Pradhans in villages: 178
(Health Dept yet to investigate or distribute medication)

The Modi govt will reduce RT-PCR %age fm 63% to 40% of overall tests & focus on RAT instead.

On 20th May, RT-PCR was down to 51.3%, which might explain how positivity declined recently. RT-PCR found 17.2% positivity while RAT found only 8.3% yesterday.
ndtv.com/india-news/in-…

Madhya Pradesh, 01 Mar - 30 Apr 2021
Official COVID19 deaths: 1752 (state data, covid19india.org)
Last rites with COVID protocols: 1,02,002 (according to Opposition leader Kamal Nath)
If accurate the latter is 5800% more than official count.
jabalpurexpress.com/showpage.php?t…

Using data from @Divya_Bhaskar, calculations by @aashishg_ & @muradbanaji indicate 40,000 excess deaths in Gujarat between 1 Mar-10 May 2021, 10x official COVID19 fatalities.

Disclaimer: Excess deaths may not all be due to COVID but hard to guess what else might be the cause.

Tripura's COVID19 "data is just the tip of the iceberg. Actual situation is much worse... shortage of tests means we do not know real positivity rate" - BJP MLA & ex-Health Minister, Sudip Roy Barman. Tripura is governed by BJP.
@Tanmoy_cborty reports:
thewire.in/politics/tripu…

Given tht the Modi govt knew our population size, it can't cite absolute vaccination stats & pat itself on the back. Hilariously, even in that category, it pretends that China doesn't exist.

Doses/population unit matters for immunity. May's vaccination stats worse than April's.

The incompetence at the heart of Modi's vaccine "strategy" is... breathtaking. The cynical attempt to position himself as Pharmacist of the Planet has put global efforts to battle the pandemic at grave risk.

@Planet_Deb writes:
time.com/6052370/modi-d…

Not only did 2000 test positive officially (10-14 Apr) in Hardwar & cases rise 1800% in Uttarakhand during Kumbh Mela, it spread COVID19 across India. @HannahEP and @AakashHassan cite instances in Kashmir, Madhya Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh, Bihar & Karnataka.
theguardian.com/world/2021/may…

Estimating scale of Uttar Pradesh's under-counting is impossible. Anecdotal weekly evidence in late Apr-

Hardoi: 175 cremations. Earlier 2-3.
Kannauj: 420 cremations, Earlier 56-70.
Besides, due to surge/superstition, uncounted burials/cremations at home.
hindustantimes.com/india-news/cov…

How are cases undercounted in India?
1. India's tests/1000 is ranked a dismal 71st globally
2. Less accurate Rapid Antigen Test widely used

In Haryana, there's a 77% difference in results, RAT Vs RTPCR (6.09% vs 10.83% positivity). Unfortunately, no data available at India level

The story of Saeed Naqvi's COVID19 battle in the context of misgovernance & politicking by Modi & Kejriwal is poignant.

Farah Naqvi's "system" was friends, contacts & generous strangers. Heart-warming that the Naqvi family had one that came to the rescue.
thewire.in/health/saeed-n…

Patna, Bihar; May 2021
Official fatalities: 446
COVID19 protocol cremations (3 crematoria): 1648 (370% more)

Rural Bihar: data gathered by @DainikBhaskar fm officials indicate another 447 COVID19 deaths. 3162 more died exhibiting symptoms bt untested
bhaskar.com/local/bihar/pa…

The closest a common citizen can come to summarizing India's Vaccine "Drive"' in numbers.

Purchase, supply & administration of doses - all can be described as a crawl at best. A direct result of twiddling thumbs last year while other nations raced to lock up supply.

After exaggerating his "Vaccine Maitri", Modi flew Jaishankar to USA to beg for doses fm the same Biden who Modi campaigned against on US soil.

US announced a 25M tranche: India gets some out of 7M doses to Asia & some out of 6M shared with 12 other geos:
whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/…

Mix incompetence, illiteracy, cronyism and disdain for the federal nature of the Union.

What can possibly go wrong?

Pvt Hospital price references:
(1) countercurrents.org/2021/06/privat…
(2) financialexpress.com/lifestyle/heal…

Irony died. While US Nat Sec Advisor @JakeSullivan46 explains to press that USA will ship vaccines to India as the latter is in a troubling surge, Indian Home Minister tells press that Modi is "successful" in the battle against COVID19.

Vaccination progress in few states
Doses administered as %age of 2019 population depicted here. Interesting to find out how many doses/population *supplied* to GJ vs other states.

Doses data - COVID19India.org
Population from the National Commission on Population

9 Jun: India posted 6139 COVID19 fatalities bcos of a stat reconciliation by Bihar (5424, 7 Jun to 9375, 8 Jun). Still doesn't account for glaring inaccuracies.

Patna
Official old stats: 1223; new stats: 2293.
COVID protocol cremations in just 3 ghats in just Apr-May: 3243.

Madhya Pradesh's official COVID19 fatalities: 4904 in Jan-May'21.
Excess deaths in '21 Vs '19 according to Civil Regn System: 190000 (3800% more)

In May
2021: 1,70,000 (Excess deaths 4800% more than 2894 official COVID19 count)
2019: 31,000
2020: 34,000
bhaskar.com/local/mp/bhopa…

Tamil Nadu: Data from 6 hospitals across the state for Apr-May 2021, compiled by @aadhirabharathi

Official COVID19 fatalities: 863
Total Deaths in hospitals: 11699
Excess deaths in 2021 Vs 2019: 7262 (841% more than official COVID count)
thenewsminute.com/article/data-6…

Faridkot's Vipan Mittal got a COVID19 test report on 22nd Apr. He hadn't taken any. His persistent hunt for reasons uncovered the Kumbh Mela scam - at least 1 Lakh out of 4 Lakh tests conducted were fictitious. @IshitaMishraTOI reports:
timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/how-an-l…