A few reasons why it is so urgent for #Canadians to do everything they can right now to protect their communities from #COVID19 by staying home.
1) We are now at the same point in Wave 2 where we were by the 3rd or 4th week of March, in Wave 1.
cont'd
2) Our test % positivity is as high as when our national lockdown started in March.
3) We are running same (low) number of tests per positive case as at start of the last lockdown.
This means our epidemic is likely now as big & serious as in March.
In #Canada, new per capita #COVID19 cases today are about 50% higher than new cases in the rest of the world, and more than 3X higher than the peak of Wave 1 in Canada.
In #Canada, new per capita #COVID19 cases today are about 75% higher than new deaths in the rest of the world, and we're already nearly halfway to the peak of deaths we saw in Wave 1, and increasing 26%/wk (!!).
sorry--the new deaths are increasing much faster than 27%/wk. Our total deaths in Wave 2 are increasing 26%/wk.
Total Wave 2 #COVID19 deaths in long-term, personal care and retirement homes are exploding in #Manitoba and #Alberta, and are increasing 27-41% per week.
These are very fast, very big increases, and they've been increasing like this for the last 1-2 weeks.
This time around, we don't have full lock-downs to protect us, even though our epidemic is much bigger, we have similar, low test positivity & tests/case numbers as March.
I don't know how to get this across to people who need to start staying home. We are in serious trouble.
For those who want good #COVID19 follows in different provinces, I've started building Twitter lists, which are linked below. Pls let me know who I should add.
This video from medical educator @arslaanjavaeed & colleagues shows how deeply important it is for every single one of us to protect each other right now.
As of July 26, which is last date we have excess mortality data for Canada, I see Canada has 3rd highest % excess mortality among peers.
The absolute number of excess deaths as of July 26 matches cumulative total #COVID19 deaths in #Canada reported by @covid_canada, so I suspect this means we're doing a good job of counting our COVID deaths, and that only a relatively small % of them would have died without COVID.
Other countries, such as USA, seem to be greatly under-reporting, since as of July 26, they had a cumulative excess mortality of nearly 250,000 deaths but are only reporting that number of COVID-19 deaths as of this week.