Nov 22 update

#COVID19 cases, deaths, case fatality rates

#Canada, provinces w/ >200 cases/100K ppl
•Country peers (high income, pop >20M)
•Long-term & personal care, retirement homes
•Weekly % changes

Data: @covid_canada @NoLore @RyersonNIA @CIHI_ICIS @OurWorldInData
A few reasons why it is so urgent for #Canadians to do everything they can right now to protect their communities from #COVID19 by staying home.

1) We are now at the same point in Wave 2 where we were by the 3rd or 4th week of March, in Wave 1.

cont'd
2) Our test % positivity is as high as when our national lockdown started in March.

3) We are running same (low) number of tests per positive case as at start of the last lockdown.

This means our epidemic is likely now as big & serious as in March.
In #Canada, new per capita #COVID19 cases today are about 50% higher than new cases in the rest of the world, and more than 3X higher than the peak of Wave 1 in Canada.
In #Canada, new per capita #COVID19 cases today are about 75% higher than new deaths in the rest of the world, and we're already nearly halfway to the peak of deaths we saw in Wave 1, and increasing 26%/wk (!!).
sorry--the new deaths are increasing much faster than 27%/wk. Our total deaths in Wave 2 are increasing 26%/wk.

Total Wave 2 #COVID19 deaths in #Manitoba #Alberta and #BritishColumbia are now increasing 35-45%/wk (!!!!!!!)
Total Wave 2 #COVID19 deaths in long-term, personal care and retirement homes are exploding in #Manitoba and #Alberta, and are increasing 27-41% per week.

These are very fast, very big increases, and they've been increasing like this for the last 1-2 weeks.
This time around, we don't have full lock-downs to protect us, even though our epidemic is much bigger, we have similar, low test positivity & tests/case numbers as March.

I don't know how to get this across to people who need to start staying home. We are in serious trouble.
For those who want good #COVID19 follows in different provinces, I've started building Twitter lists, which are linked below. Pls let me know who I should add.

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More from @MoriartyLab

23 Nov
Nov 22

Since March, 1 of every 29 #Canadians diagnosed with #COVID19 has died

This video from medical educator @arslaanjavaeed & colleagues shows how deeply important it is for every single one of us to protect each other right now.

Please, we beg you, if you can, STAY HOME
@IrfanDhalla @picardonhealth @Aaron_Derfel @SharkawyMD @ninan_abraham1 @RyersonNIA @AlexUsherHESA @katecallen @drandrewb @dementiarehab @LeylaDAsadi @MargaretAtwood

Would you consider amplifying this video trying to help Canadians understand the seriousness of #COVID19 ?
Read 8 tweets
23 Nov
#Canadians

You MUST stay home right now whenever you can.

You MUST protect your families, neighbours, friends, colleagues & communities from #COVID19.

This Nov 22 update tells you why.

Please read it, share it with others who may not understand how critical our situation is.
If you live in #Quebec

I of every 19 people diagnosed w/ #COVID19 has died since March.

💔🖤🖤🖤🖤🖤🖤🖤🖤🖤🖤🖤🖤🖤🖤🖤🖤🖤🖤

Protect others your family, neighbours, friends, colleagues, community.

If you can, please stay home.
If you live in #Ontario

I of every 30 people diagnosed w/ #COVID19 has died since March.

💔🖤🖤🖤🖤🖤🖤🖤🖤🖤🖤🖤🖤🖤🖤🖤🖤🖤🖤🖤🖤🖤🖤🖤🖤🖤🖤🖤🖤🖤🖤

Protect others your family, neighbours, friends, colleagues, community.

If you can, please stay home.
Read 6 tweets
22 Nov
Nov 21

#COVID19 cases, deaths, case fatality rates

#Canada, provinces w/ >200 cases/100K ppl
•Country peers (high income, pop >20M)
•Long-term & personal care, retirement homes
•Weekly % changes

Data: @covid_canada @NoLore @RyersonNIA @CIHI_ICIS @OurWorldInData
Read 6 tweets
21 Nov
#Canadians

As of Nov 20, here are the odds of death in Canadians diagnosed with #COVID19

Without the help of every single one of us, many more will die.

Protect your loved ones, neighbours, friends, colleagues and fellow Canadians.

If you can, STAY HOME
To those who already shared the first tweet, I had to delete it because the image showed up black on some devices. Here's the one you can share.

Please help get the word out.
Read 17 tweets
19 Nov
Any excess mortality experts out there?

I'm looking the cumulative excess mortality tracker table on @OurWorldInData

ourworldindata.org/grapher/excess…

As of July 26, which is last date we have excess mortality data for Canada, I see Canada has 3rd highest % excess mortality among peers. Image
The absolute number of excess deaths as of July 26 matches cumulative total #COVID19 deaths in #Canada reported by @covid_canada, so I suspect this means we're doing a good job of counting our COVID deaths, and that only a relatively small % of them would have died without COVID. Image
Other countries, such as USA, seem to be greatly under-reporting, since as of July 26, they had a cumulative excess mortality of nearly 250,000 deaths but are only reporting that number of COVID-19 deaths as of this week.
Read 50 tweets
16 Nov
#Canadians, political leaders in provinces with Wave 2 #COVID19 epidemics

You MUST act NOW.

#Manitoba and #Quebec are in crisis. #Alberta, #Ontario, #Saskatchewan will be there soon.

This is NOT overreaction. PLEASE read this thread. Please share it. PLEASE ACT.

1/
I've been watching per capita DEATHS in #Canada & high income peer countries with pop >20M

Peers: 🇹🇼🇦🇺🇰🇷🇯🇵🇩🇪🇮🇹🇬🇧🇺🇸🇪🇸🇫🇷

Why?

Because #Canadian #COVID19 case fatality rate (% of confirmed cases who die) has remained stubbornly high.

It's the 3rd highest, after 🇮🇹🇺🇸.
We will soon reach the highest case fatality rate among our peer countries & we've barely started Wave 2.

Look at this graph. Watch it every day. #Canada is NOT doing ok

When we get #COVID19 more of us die than in Spain, France, the USA.

Please, please see this and act.
Read 29 tweets

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