#Canadians
As of Nov 20, here are the odds of death in Canadians diagnosed with #COVID19
Without the help of every single one of us, many more will die.
Protect your loved ones, neighbours, friends, colleagues and fellow Canadians.
If you can, STAY HOME
As of Nov 20, here are the odds of death in Canadians diagnosed with #COVID19
Without the help of every single one of us, many more will die.
Protect your loved ones, neighbours, friends, colleagues and fellow Canadians.
If you can, STAY HOME
To those who already shared the first tweet, I had to delete it because the image showed up black on some devices. Here's the one you can share.
Please help get the word out.
Please help get the word out.
Our case fatality rates have been improving as we diagnose more cases, but we are now running as few tests per diagnosed case as in spring.
The infection fatality ratio for #COVID19 is roughly 1%. When you look at Canada's excess mortality up to July 26 (11,419%), the absolute number of excess deaths is very similar to the number of reported C19 deaths by that date.
I don't think #Canadians are inherently more likely to die of #COVID19 than people from other countries (or I sure hope not).
But I do think we have ENORMOUSLY underestimated our cases, and that this raises our CFR (which is diagnosed deaths/diagnosed cases).
But I do think we have ENORMOUSLY underestimated our cases, and that this raises our CFR (which is diagnosed deaths/diagnosed cases).
I don't think it's surprising that we have many more cases than we think. Look at our neighbour to the south, w/ whom we share the world's longest undefended border.
But I don't think we're doing better than in Wave 1, because we're not running more tests/case than we did then.
But I don't think we're doing better than in Wave 1, because we're not running more tests/case than we did then.
ok. hopefully some food for thought for everyone. I believe our epidemic is at least 5 times bigger than we think, possibly 10X bigger, because we're missing an enormous number of cases, probably because we're rationing testing to the symptomatic and high risk settings.
Almost no situational awareness--no real awareness of where the epidemic is exploding, how fast, how big. We're relying on hospitalization and death data to make decisions in the middle of exponential Wave 2 growth.
And if you notice in the Wave 2 tables at the top of this thread, the W2 case fatality rate is now increasing in all provinces, a sure sign that our deaths reported today are outstripping the cases we report today....a very, very bad sign considering that cases are growing fast.
For those who don't follow me regularly, the data come from @covid_canada @CIHI_ICIS @RyersonNIA @NoLore @OurWorldInData
Here's a summary of the sources/methods.
Here's a summary of the sources/methods.
Finally, for the folk getting nasty because you don't think these numbers can be true, you might want to look at my profile to see what I do for a living. These are our numbers, whether or not you accept this. Our actions and words matter, and so do yours. Protect others.
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