As of Nov 20, here are the odds of death in Canadians diagnosed with #COVID19

Without the help of every single one of us, many more will die.

Protect your loved ones, neighbours, friends, colleagues and fellow Canadians.

If you can, STAY HOME
To those who already shared the first tweet, I had to delete it because the image showed up black on some devices. Here's the one you can share.

Please help get the word out.
Our case fatality rates have been improving as we diagnose more cases, but we are now running as few tests per diagnosed case as in spring.
The infection fatality ratio for #COVID19 is roughly 1%. When you look at Canada's excess mortality up to July 26 (11,419%), the absolute number of excess deaths is very similar to the number of reported C19 deaths by that date.
I don't think #Canadians are inherently more likely to die of #COVID19 than people from other countries (or I sure hope not).

But I do think we have ENORMOUSLY underestimated our cases, and that this raises our CFR (which is diagnosed deaths/diagnosed cases).
I don't think it's surprising that we have many more cases than we think. Look at our neighbour to the south, w/ whom we share the world's longest undefended border.

But I don't think we're doing better than in Wave 1, because we're not running more tests/case than we did then.
ok. hopefully some food for thought for everyone. I believe our epidemic is at least 5 times bigger than we think, possibly 10X bigger, because we're missing an enormous number of cases, probably because we're rationing testing to the symptomatic and high risk settings.
Almost no situational awareness--no real awareness of where the epidemic is exploding, how fast, how big. We're relying on hospitalization and death data to make decisions in the middle of exponential Wave 2 growth.
And if you notice in the Wave 2 tables at the top of this thread, the W2 case fatality rate is now increasing in all provinces, a sure sign that our deaths reported today are outstripping the cases we report today....a very, very bad sign considering that cases are growing fast.
For those who don't follow me regularly, the data come from @covid_canada @CIHI_ICIS @RyersonNIA @NoLore @OurWorldInData

Here's a summary of the sources/methods.
Finally, for the folk getting nasty because you don't think these numbers can be true, you might want to look at my profile to see what I do for a living. These are our numbers, whether or not you accept this. Our actions and words matter, and so do yours. Protect others.

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More from @MoriartyLab

19 Nov
Any excess mortality experts out there?

I'm looking the cumulative excess mortality tracker table on @OurWorldInData


As of July 26, which is last date we have excess mortality data for Canada, I see Canada has 3rd highest % excess mortality among peers. Image
The absolute number of excess deaths as of July 26 matches cumulative total #COVID19 deaths in #Canada reported by @covid_canada, so I suspect this means we're doing a good job of counting our COVID deaths, and that only a relatively small % of them would have died without COVID. Image
Other countries, such as USA, seem to be greatly under-reporting, since as of July 26, they had a cumulative excess mortality of nearly 250,000 deaths but are only reporting that number of COVID-19 deaths as of this week.
Read 50 tweets
16 Nov
#Canadians, political leaders in provinces with Wave 2 #COVID19 epidemics

You MUST act NOW.

#Manitoba and #Quebec are in crisis. #Alberta, #Ontario, #Saskatchewan will be there soon.

This is NOT overreaction. PLEASE read this thread. Please share it. PLEASE ACT.

I've been watching per capita DEATHS in #Canada & high income peer countries with pop >20M

Peers: 🇹🇼🇦🇺🇰🇷🇯🇵🇩🇪🇮🇹🇬🇧🇺🇸🇪🇸🇫🇷


Because #Canadian #COVID19 case fatality rate (% of confirmed cases who die) has remained stubbornly high.

It's the 3rd highest, after 🇮🇹🇺🇸.
We will soon reach the highest case fatality rate among our peer countries & we've barely started Wave 2.

Look at this graph. Watch it every day. #Canada is NOT doing ok

When we get #COVID19 more of us die than in Spain, France, the USA.

Please, please see this and act.
Read 29 tweets
15 Nov
Nov 15

#COVID19 cases, deaths, case fatality rates

#Canada, provinces
•Country peers (high income, pop >20M)
•Longterm care, retirement homes
•Weekly, daily % changes (7-day avg)


Data: @covid_canada @NoLore @RyersonNIA @CIHI_ICIS @OurWorldInData
#COVID19 #CANADA Take-home 1

Wave 2 started later in Canada than peer countries BUT
•Deaths ↑ faster than peers (27% wkly)
•Cases ↑ 23% wkly
•Case fatality rate (CFR) ↑ 3.2% wkly

Worst death numbers, CFR in order
#Quebec, #Manitoba, #Alberta, #Ontario
#COVID19 #CANADA Take-home 2

•Deaths ↑ 10% wkly
•Cases ↑ 10% wkly

Worst death numbers, in order
#Quebec, #Manitoba, #Ontario, #Alberta

Worst case numbers, in order
•Quebec, Ontario, Alberta, Manitoba (deaths will follow)
Read 12 tweets
14 Nov
Nov 13 update

#COVID19 cases, deaths

#Canada, provinces
•Comparison to country peers (high income, pop >20M)
•Longterm care, retirement homes
•Weekly, daily % changes (7-day avg)

See thread

Data: @covid_canada @NoLore @RyersonNIA @CIHI_ICIS @OurWorldInData
#COVID19 DEATHS/100K (+% daily growth rate)

QC 10+4%
MB 9+7%
AB 4+5%
ON 4+3%
BC 2+3%
SK 1+19%

#COVID19 CASES/100K (+% daily growth rate)

QC 711+3%
MB 697+6%
AB 575+4%
ON 359+3%
BC 327+4%
SK 251+6%

Read 34 tweets
13 Nov
Nov 13 update

#COVID19 cases, deaths

#Canada, provinces
•Comparison to country peers (high income, pop >20M)
•Longterm care, retirement homes
•Weekly, daily % changes (7-day avg)

See thread for details.

Data: @covid_canada @NoLore @RyersonNIA
#COVID19 DEATHS/100K (+% daily growth rate)

🇺🇸USA 22+2%
🇫🇷FRA 19+7%
🇬🇧UK 13+6%
QC 10+4%
MB 9+7%
🇨🇦CAN 5+4%
AB 4+6%
ON 4+3%
BC 2+3%
SK <1+19%

#COVID19 CASES/100K (+% daily growth rate)

QC 696+3%
MB 665+6%
AB 554+5%
ON 349+3%
BC 314+5%
SK 245+7%
🇹🇼TAI 1+0%

Read 8 tweets
11 Nov

There's something troubling about our #COVID19 death rates in the 2nd wave

I've calculated total per capita case & death numbers since Aug 17 (2nd wave) & compared these to values for our peer countries (high income, pop >20M)

Peers: 🇦🇺🇫🇷🇩🇪🇮🇹🇯🇵🇰🇷🇩🇪🇹🇼🇬🇧🇺🇸

Thread 🧵
Nov 11

Cumulative Wave 2 COVID-19 CASES (per 100K ppl)

Per 100K ppl, starting Aug 17 (% increase last 7d)

QC 663 (+17%)
MB 599 (+44%)
Peers 553 🇦🇺🇫🇷🇩🇪🇮🇹🇯🇵🇰🇷🇪🇸🇹🇼🇬🇧🇺🇸
AB 519 (+28%)
Canada 399 (+23%)
ON 329 (+22%)
BC 292 (+31%)
SK 225 (+47%)

Data: @covid_canada
The average #COVID19 per capita case number in our peer countries is higher than today's value for #Canada, although our number has increased by 23% in the last 7 days (not good).

This makes sense, though--our cases started growing later than in many European countries & US

Read 18 tweets

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