Last year #Guaita only saved 36% of the close range 1v1s he faced (only #Kepa & #DeGea were lower)

This is because he rarely forms a premeditated barrier before the shot is struck so gives himself no chance of making the save!

This weakness was exposed again tonight.

#PALNEW
When shots are from close range there is simply not enough time for a GK to react therefore they have to get close to the striker & form a premeditated barrier & shrink the effective goal area & force the striker to “just hit the ball at them”

As the images below show
I analysed 800+ 1v1s in the #PremierLeague last year & using a logistic regression model found that the engage & react strategy that #Guiata regularly employs gives a GK a far lower chance of making the save vs the engage & block & the engage & spread premediated strategies.
To be clear I think #Guaita is a top GK & is a big reason #CrystalPalace are still a #PremierLeague club, I just found & wanted to highlight a particular weakness in his game.

See my pinned tweet for more details on 1v1 strategies:

As people were very interested here is a full breakdown of #Guaita’s 1v1s last year in saved/faced format:

Close range regular: 5/15
Long range regular: 11/16
Forced out of position: 3/5

(Notice the typo in my 1st post it should have been 33%, everything else is correct though)
#Guaita vs the league average:

Close range regular: 33% vs 54%
Long range regular: 69% vs 58%
Forced out of position: 80% vs 25%

Close range regular = very weak
Long range regular = Top 5 in PL
FOOP = outrageously good

The images below show some incredible FOOP 1v1 saves!
#Guaita vs 1v1s

Class at long range as he often trusts his reactions & stays deep. The problem is he continues to trust his reactions even when the 1v1 is close to goal.

He tried to react to 8 close 1v1s so only saved 1. However he saved 4/7 when he made a premeditated barrier.
#Palace fans will be hoping #Guaita can start using the spread & block more as he has shown he is capable of executing those techniques well it’s just he often seems to default to trying to save shots which are far too close to goal with his reactions.

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More from @Jhdharrison1

29 Nov
JWP’s FK is class & it would have been difficult for #DeGea to save regardless but yet again he gives himself no chance by getting his body shape wrong given his positioning

He needs to start higher off his line so his body angle doesn’t force him to dive into the goal!

#SOUMUN Image
If #DeGea stands ~1yrd forwards he will be able to cover the wall side without diving backwards into his goal + it won’t hinder his ability to defend his side as while it will cut his reaction time slightly the distance to the far post is such that it won’t make a big difference.
If #DeGea moved too far forwards (ie 2 to 3 yards) then obviously it would make high saves to his side difficult & cut his reaction time by a substantial amount thus make any save more tricky but I’m not suggesting such a big change.
Read 4 tweets
19 Sep
THREAD:

How important is a goalkeeper’s ability to prevent shots?

Is it of comparable importance to shot stopping ability?

In this thread I will investigate these questions & outline my ExG prevented model using #Alisson as an example.

#PremierLeague #LFC #GKUnion #EPL
Every action a GK performs can be separated into 3 categories:

Save-> here the GK attempts to block the ball going into the goal

Distribution-> here the GK attempts to play the ball to a teammate

Interception-> here the GK attempts to stop the ball from reaching an opponent
Evaluating GK intercepting from public data is difficult as most stats providers split intercepting actions between recoveries, tackles, interceptions, punches, & claims, & the differences between the categories are unclear & not relevant to interception difficulty/importance.
Read 28 tweets
3 Sep
THREAD:

Over the past year has Dean #Henderson staked a realistic claim to be #ManchesterUnited’s number 1 #Goalkeeper ahead of David #DeGea?

I will mainly investigate an area of GKing that receives little statistical analysis:

Cross Claiming & Sweeping

#MUFC #GKUnion
Firstly before that, I think it is well known that #Henderson had an outstanding shot stopping season while #DeGea didn’t.

Here are the numbers:

#Henderson Save%-ExSave +5.88%
#DeGea Save%-ExSave% +0.78%

2 important conclusions should be drawn from these numbers...

#MUFC
1. #DeGea did not have a below avg season, yes he make shot stopping mistakes but he made enough worldy saves to out weigh the mistakes.

2. #DeGea has only once (17/18) had a better shot stopping season in his career (according to PSExG) than #Henderson had this year.

#MUFC
Read 7 tweets
17 Jun
THREAD:

1v1s are incredibly important situations for GKs to master as they correspond to 35% of all goals scored in the 19/20 #PremierLeague!

In this thread I will show how effective various 1v1 strategies are at making saves.

I’m sure #GKcoaches will be v interested in this!
I’ve analysed every single 1v1 situation in the 19/20 #PremierLeague (600+ situations) & calculated using logistic regression the optimum strategy a GK could use to maximise their chance of making the save depending on the situation location & the build-up leading to the chance.
I found that GKs use the following 5 strategies to save 1v1s:

1. Wait deep & then react to the shot
2. Engage & then react to the shot
3. Engage & smother the ball
4. Engage & spread
5. Engage & block

#PremierLeague #GKUnion
Read 16 tweets
29 Mar
THREAD:

Dean #Henderson vs David #DeGea
#PremierLeague Shotstopping 19/20

As requested I will compare the shot stopping performances of the two potential #ManchesterUnited number 1’s.

There will be statistics & 1v1 plots!

🧤⚽️👑

#MUFC #GKAnalysis #GKUnion
Firstly let’s look at post shot expected goals conceded.

@StatsBomb’s PSExG model takes the position of the shot, the position of the defenders, the speed of the shot & the placement of the shot into account in order to calculate whether an Avg GK would save it.
Using this model #DeGea has played almost exactly to the level of an average #PremierLeague goalkeeper & has conceded -0.2 goals more than expected.

#Henderson on the other hand has saved #SheffieldUnited +6.5 more goals than an avg GK would be expected to!
Read 15 tweets
7 Jul 19
THREAD: It’s the #FIFAWWC final today! So it is 1 year since I started a project analysing the goalkeeping at the #FIFAWorldCup2018. So about time I tweet the findings! It is on distribution & how we can go beyond pass completion! #footballanalytics #Lloris #Pickford #Alisson
Firstly, pass completion is the only distributive metric that regularly gets any airtime in the mainstream media.
Websites like @WhoScored & @Squawka regularly compare goalkeepers using pass completion.
#FIFAWorldCup2018 #Goalkeeping #Distribution ImageImageImage
Given the amount of data websites like @WhoScored & @Squawka have you would imagine it is a pretty robust metric?

However, if you think about it it feels like there should be many factors which effect pass competition which have nothing to do with a GKs distributive ability.
Read 33 tweets

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