JWP’s FK is class & it would have been difficult for #DeGea to save regardless but yet again he gives himself no chance by getting his body shape wrong given his positioning
He needs to start higher off his line so his body angle doesn’t force him to dive into the goal!
If #DeGea stands ~1yrd forwards he will be able to cover the wall side without diving backwards into his goal + it won’t hinder his ability to defend his side as while it will cut his reaction time slightly the distance to the far post is such that it won’t make a big difference.
If #DeGea moved too far forwards (ie 2 to 3 yards) then obviously it would make high saves to his side difficult & cut his reaction time by a substantial amount thus make any save more tricky but I’m not suggesting such a big change.
It just requires a small tweak & given its a dead ball it should be something that is pretty easy to do all he needs to make sure is that his dive angle (ie the point from his shoulders across to the near post) isn’t into the goal.
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When shots are from close range there is simply not enough time for a GK to react therefore they have to get close to the striker & form a premeditated barrier & shrink the effective goal area & force the striker to “just hit the ball at them”
As the images below show
I analysed 800+ 1v1s in the #PremierLeague last year & using a logistic regression model found that the engage & react strategy that #Guiata regularly employs gives a GK a far lower chance of making the save vs the engage & block & the engage & spread premediated strategies.
Every action a GK performs can be separated into 3 categories:
Save-> here the GK attempts to block the ball going into the goal
Distribution-> here the GK attempts to play the ball to a teammate
Interception-> here the GK attempts to stop the ball from reaching an opponent
Evaluating GK intercepting from public data is difficult as most stats providers split intercepting actions between recoveries, tackles, interceptions, punches, & claims, & the differences between the categories are unclear & not relevant to interception difficulty/importance.
I’ve analysed every single 1v1 situation in the 19/20 #PremierLeague (600+ situations) & calculated using logistic regression the optimum strategy a GK could use to maximise their chance of making the save depending on the situation location & the build-up leading to the chance.
I found that GKs use the following 5 strategies to save 1v1s:
1. Wait deep & then react to the shot 2. Engage & then react to the shot 3. Engage & smother the ball 4. Engage & spread 5. Engage & block
Firstly let’s look at post shot expected goals conceded.
@StatsBomb’s PSExG model takes the position of the shot, the position of the defenders, the speed of the shot & the placement of the shot into account in order to calculate whether an Avg GK would save it.
Using this model #DeGea has played almost exactly to the level of an average #PremierLeague goalkeeper & has conceded -0.2 goals more than expected.
#Henderson on the other hand has saved #SheffieldUnited +6.5 more goals than an avg GK would be expected to!
THREAD: It’s the #FIFAWWC final today! So it is 1 year since I started a project analysing the goalkeeping at the #FIFAWorldCup2018. So about time I tweet the findings! It is on distribution & how we can go beyond pass completion! #footballanalytics#Lloris#Pickford#Alisson
Firstly, pass completion is the only distributive metric that regularly gets any airtime in the mainstream media.
Websites like @WhoScored & @Squawka regularly compare goalkeepers using pass completion. #FIFAWorldCup2018#Goalkeeping#Distribution
Given the amount of data websites like @WhoScored & @Squawka have you would imagine it is a pretty robust metric?
However, if you think about it it feels like there should be many factors which effect pass competition which have nothing to do with a GKs distributive ability.