1) THREAD
I'm working through a thought experiment concerning #BTC and #ETH. It is totally theoretical and speculative but definitely has a > 1% of becoming a reality. So if you have exposure to either or both, GET IN HERE!
Would love others' input....
I'm working through a thought experiment concerning #BTC and #ETH. It is totally theoretical and speculative but definitely has a > 1% of becoming a reality. So if you have exposure to either or both, GET IN HERE!
Would love others' input....
2) #Bitcoin and #Ethereum undoubtedly have some ideological differences. If you disagree with that statement, then the thought experiment will be lost on you and you may return to your alternate reality!
3) #BTC is far more #cypherpunk, rebellious, anti-state, defensive-minded, underground, and "bring down the banks/government/state"
#ETH is more speculative, less hostile, less "religious", more enterprise-friendly, and probably less inclined to subvert nation-wide regulations
#ETH is more speculative, less hostile, less "religious", more enterprise-friendly, and probably less inclined to subvert nation-wide regulations
4) I am not trying to say which is "right."
I am just of the opinion that #BTC would be more likely to resist nation's regulations and live in a grey market/as a dark-net currency than #ETH.
I am just of the opinion that #BTC would be more likely to resist nation's regulations and live in a grey market/as a dark-net currency than #ETH.
5) And as we speak, governments are waking up to #crypto and that means they are currently trying to figure out how to "control" it
So, here's the actual scenario/though experiment...
So, here's the actual scenario/though experiment...
6) I could see a world in which a govt, like the US govt, basically picks a side. They try and choose a #cryptocurrency that they think will play nice and then hammer the rest.
In this, scenario, what side do you think #BTC falls on??
In this, scenario, what side do you think #BTC falls on??
7) The govt could conclude that #bitcoin is already "too far out of the bag" for them to really co-opt.
And since #ETH is still building out its final form AND a bit less "f*ck-the-state", could try and designate it the "US-preferred" crypto.
And since #ETH is still building out its final form AND a bit less "f*ck-the-state", could try and designate it the "US-preferred" crypto.
8) Obviously, this is stupid and what #BTC is built for BUT...
It could certainly shake out MANY retail investors, force the "institutional herd" to give up their positions, and crater the #btcprice.
Meanwhile, #ETH, while "selling out", could soar in price and adoption.
It could certainly shake out MANY retail investors, force the "institutional herd" to give up their positions, and crater the #btcprice.
Meanwhile, #ETH, while "selling out", could soar in price and adoption.
9) So again, in this scenario, #ETH just decides to conform to US regulations and #bitcoin falls outside of US laws maybe because of #coinjoin or a lack of audibility/traceability thanks to #Taproot or another upgrade
10) I know this is similar to the VERY exhausted "what if the government bans #BTC?" FUD but with the added twist of opening its arms to the already 2nd largest #crypto.
The combo of a #BTC ban (or unfavorable status) with a vote of confidence for (in this case) #ETH could.....
The combo of a #BTC ban (or unfavorable status) with a vote of confidence for (in this case) #ETH could.....
11) create (nearly) unstoppable network effects that crush #BTC to 1/10th its current size and #ETH to 50x its current size.
All before people actually wake up and realize that #privacy, #censorship-resistance, and seizure-resistance are of the utmost importance.
All before people actually wake up and realize that #privacy, #censorship-resistance, and seizure-resistance are of the utmost importance.
12) And I know the game theory about how if US bans #BTC then it's to another country's advantage to adopt it.
But I wonder if, basically, endorsing the #2 crypto would be enough to give #ETH, essentially, global "escape velocity"
But I wonder if, basically, endorsing the #2 crypto would be enough to give #ETH, essentially, global "escape velocity"
13) And I know the US govt will probably roll out their own #CBDC BUT doing something like described above could be a way to really gut-punch #BTC and maybe at least buy them enough time to create/co-opt something else they much prefer
14) Alright, well that's it!
If you stuck around this long for my brain dump, I appreciate it. And I am open to any feedback, criticisms, or alternative theories in this made-up reality I constructed!
If you stuck around this long for my brain dump, I appreciate it. And I am open to any feedback, criticisms, or alternative theories in this made-up reality I constructed!
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
