Thread by @Hedwigkuijpers2

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Understanding Iran; an impenetrable bulwark strategically located between West and East.

A guide to understanding Iran; it's topography, demography, strategies, alliances, economic partnerships, and the future US strategy for Iran.

hedwigkuijpersjournalism.wordpress.com/2021/01/10/und…

1/ To properly understand Iran’s position in the Middle East, one must not only look at its religion, internal affairs or its complex foreign politics, but its topography & history. Iran measures 1,684,000 square kilometers, and is thus larger than the whole of W-Europe combined.

2/The Zagros mountains run 900 km long from the border adjoining Turkey & Armenia to the S-E towards the Strait of Hormuz & its largest harbor of Bandar Abbas. In the North, the Alborz stretch from its border with Azerbaijan, along the Caspian sea to the Afghan border in the East

3/The Iranians are mountain dwellers. The majority of its population lives in the mountains, with even its capital Tehran situated at the foot of the Alborz. The Iranian heartland is hardly inhabited. It consists of two desert plateaus, Dasht-e Kavir & Dasht-e Lut.

4/Right between the Zagros mountains & the 2 plateau's, the landscape forms a natural bridge between the Persian gulf & the Caspian sea. Iran also forms a bridge between the Indian subcontinent & the Mediterranean. It’s a defensive bulwark, impossible to conquer it by land..

5/Iran has always been an attractive to foreign occupiers. While its landscape makes it impossible to conquer by land, its highly diverse demography makes its easy to manipulate. As in many mountain regions, the Iranian ethnic/national groups have retained their characteristics.

6/Any foreign power will try 2 manipulate these ethno-religious groups 2 undermine the power of the central government. Thus, impenetrable but vulnerable 2 manipulation as it is, any Iranian gov. has maintaining internal integrity of the country as primary strategic interest.

7/Saddam quickly discovered that a direct assault through the Zagros mts was not feasible in '80. But British colonialists previously based in Iraq, were able 2 manipulate internal divisions in Iran, as did the Soviets. By doing so, Iran virtually lost its sovereignty during WW2.

8/The view of the contemporary Iranian government toward the US is not only that of ideological animosity, but that it assumed Britain’s former imperialist role of using its occupation of Iraq to manipulate Iranian politics in an attempt to overthrow it by sowing internal discord

9/Iranians were concerned about manipulation by the British & Soviets through Afghanistan. Iranians are thus in their right to assume that the lasting US occupation of it is not related to ‘freedom&democracy’ or ‘saving the Afghans from Talib’, but a strategy to control Iran.

10/US &Saudis have exploited the ethno-religious diversity by supporting a palette of separatist org's among the Arabs of Khuzestan, Balouchistan & the Kurds. Other evidence suggests that they have tried to use Azerbaijan as a launchpad to sow dissent among the Iranian Azeris.

11/To counter these manipulations attempts by its enemies, Iran has not only formed a complex intelligence apparatus on Iranian soil, it has also sought to form its own alliances in its vast surroundings and diminish its enemies’ influence in the region.

12/It has tried to establish a Shiite crescent where the majority population is Shia. The most famous alliance in this crescent is ‘the Axis of Resistance’. Areas included in the Shia Crescent are Lebanon, Syria, Bahrain, Iraq, Iran, Azerbaijan, Yemen, and western Afghanistan.

13/By using its anti-colonialist influence strategy, Iran is winning the war for the Middle East. Though unable to openly confront its enemies, it has tipped the balance in the region to its advantage by developing a sovereign capability to conduct warfare through 3rd parties.

14/Atrocities committed by occupiers only fuel Tehran’s sovereign capability. Aligned by a common enemy, Iran has become the main player in a mosaic of local and regional factions. This capability has even become of higher strategic value than missiles, IRGC or nuclear weapons.

15/Iran has never occupied or harmed the sovereignty of another country. Instead, it has pursued non-state partnerships. By doing so, it has not only sought to aid others sharing its religion or anti-imperialist ideology, it has formed a cocoon of protection surrounding itself.

16/It has been almost 3 yrs since Trump reneged on the 2015 nuclear deal that rolled back Iran’s nuclear activities and placed them under the most rigorous international inspection regime ever implemented anywhere. Yet, his ‘Maximum pressure’ campaign will not make Iran yield.

17/ There is little doubt that the administration’s “maximum pressure” policy is inflicting considerable economic harm on Iran, yet a narrative of ‘survive and resist’ has kept them on their feet.

18/Iran has learned to be self-sufficient over the past four decades, and though its geographics do not lend for major industrial expansion, it has a continuously sought to seek new opportunities and alternative partnerships in the region.

19/Burdened by sanctions, Iran has turned to China, for economic & military support. A leaked document (2020) showed that a 25-yr strategic partnership would be implemented, in which China would invest in Iranian infrastructure, transport & seaports, in exchange for oil supplies.

20/Iran signed China's signature 1-Belt-1-Road plan in 2019. They are currently renovating rails to connect Ürümqi in China’s auton. Uyghur region to Tehran, as well as Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan & Turkmenistan. This plan will make trains across Asia faster than shipping.

21/Turkey, Iran & Pakistan have also announced to revive a transnational rail service linking Istanbul, Tehran and Islamabad this year. The ITI transnat. railroad will enhance connectivity with China's Belt and Road Initiative by providing a rail connection between China &Turkey.

22/By extending the railway to Turkey, Iran positions as a key transportation hub, forming a bridge between West & East, as in history. It's also a way to avoid sanctions, as the ECO countries on this route trade in local currencies & will thus be less affected by sanctions.

23/By sanctioning Iran, the US has actually done more harm to itself than to Iran, as it pushed Iran into the arms of rivals China & Russia with no return. Together with China and Russia, Iran has defeated the US in the “pipeline wars”.

24/Russia, Iran & Turkmenistan hold world’s largest, 2nd- and 4th-largest gas reserves & China will be consumer par excellence this century. Together with the ECO-countries, these partners have revived & planned to revive many more pipeline connections, undermining US’s goals

25/Even when it comes to vaccines, Iran refuses to work with its enemies. Vaccines produced by the US&UK will be banned from entering Iran, its supreme leader has said. “They’re completely untrustworthy”
“It’s not unlikely they would want to contaminate other nations.”

26/When it comes to the economic chessboard, the United States has suffered great losses to Russia and China during the Trump-administration. Both Russia and China have proved reliable future partners for Iran, that was pushed in their arms as a direct result of US sanctions.

27/Iran’s growing partnerships with China and Russia show that Iran is capable of growing beyond its military partnerships in the Middle East, the Shia crescent, and might even become a major player in the world through the following decades.

28/As it is afraid of the ever-growing Iranian influence in the region, the US will not completely back out of the Middle East militarily anytime soon. It cannot eradicate Iranian influence, as every attempt to do so has backlashed horribly.

29/An all-out military confrontation with Iran is too risky for its enemies, as Iran has made efforts in the development of long-distance weapons that can cause a lot of damage and loss of life at home. Iran is no country to capitulate at the slightest attack & will defend itself

30/Yet, its enemies will focus on its minorities & armed opposition even more to harm Iran from within. They will fund, arm & train them more than before. Anti-Iran think-tanks & propaganda machines will be fueled increasingly in an attempt to ignite popular uprisings.

31/Yet at Iran's slightest crackdown on its opposition, its enemies will use the 'Human Rights' card even more. This is a pattern we have witnessed in Syria, Libya and several other countries before.

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