Thread by @UKandEU

Our next #IsolationInsight event on 'The Future of the EU' is about to start

Speakers:

@HelenHet20
@simonjhix
@lisaocarroll
Loukas Tsoukalis
@anandMenon1 (chair)

Watch LIVE here:

We'll be live-tweeting from this thread...

.@simonjhix: "In the medium term, Brexit is a challenge to the EU. There will be a UK model of exit."

"At some point, the UK model will seem quite attractive, which could be politically very difficult for the EU."

.@HelenHet20: "The EU's reaction to #Brexit was primarily defensive, but there was an opportunity to face the euro-ins and euro-outs question head on."

"Instead, it was seen as a potential long-term threat to the EU's credibility."

Loukas Tsoukalis: "The EU is much weaker as a result of #Brexit - any country leaving is a big loss, but especially the UK."

"But the UK's exit has also made the EU more governable, taking the country out that was the biggest objector to EU integration."

.@lisaocarroll: "#Brexit has shown the EU can be unified when it has a common opponent, but we've also seen in recent weeks the opposite of that."

. @simonjhix: "There was a plausible to the Commission managing vaccine procurement. The #Brexit experience established its reputation for holding together the EU."

"This is potentially a very dangerous moment for @vonderleyen."

. @simonjhix: "The Commission does not have the authority or legitimacy to govern during crises, partly by design. Member states have preferred to pick second-rate politicians as Commission president."

Loukas Tsoukalis: "The vaccine message from Brussels is mixed, as usual. We avoided an undignified scramble for vaccines among 27 national governments."

"But the Commission has been slow and has not done a good job. We shouldn't draw long-term conclusions from this crisis."

. @HelenHet20: "The idea that in the middle of a pandemic you can create health policy for the EU is absurd. You need the political authority there before the emergency happens."

. @simonjhix: "The Commission resolved member state competition over vaccines and negotiated knock down prices, but they didn't reckon with the impact on the prioritisation of deliveries."

Loukas Tsoukalis: "The Commission's calculations have all been economic, they didn't reckon with the long-term impact of lockdowns."

"We may have better prices than the UK, but we don't have the vaccines."

"Commission bureaucrats were probably over-sensitive on prices."

Loukas Tsoukalis: "There is no doubt that jointly borrowing €750bn with a strong redistributive bias in favour of weaker member states is a game changer. It's arguably the most important decision taken since the creation of the euro."

. @simonjhix: "The recovery fund is a genuine first step towards a fiscal union. But the major fiscal guns still sit overwhelmingly at national level."

"The problem is managing the single market is at EU level while the instruments for managing the economy are domestic."

. @HelenHet20: "In fiscal terms, the Recovery Fund is a big deal, but that it's not backed by common taxation means it's not as big a moment as some have suggested."

"The fund has also tangled up a whole series of issues, including on rule of law."

. @simonjhix: "Every time the EU takes a major step forward, it is always said it'll be a game changer but I'm deeply sceptical."

"The attention of voters and the media will remain on national politics, not on Brussels. Politics is national but policy is at EU level."

Loukas Tsoukalis: "There is no doubt that the nation state remains at the centre of the EU. European politics is secondary at best."

"But economic integration is far ahead of political integration. The EU is more important than most EU citizens perceive it to be."

. @HelenHet20: "The origins of the Recovery Fund were in rescuing the likes of Italy and allowing them to pursue substantial fiscal stimulus."

"It's not just about how voters react to what goes on in Brussels. The EU is in the middle of national politics in Italy."

Loukas Tsoukalis: "The crux of the matter in Italy is economic stagnation over the last 20 years. This is more to do with domestic policies than the EU level."

"Well-performing countries can better deal with tensions between domestic and EU level."

Loukas Tsoukalis: "The Greeks had largely themselves to blame for their situation in 2009/10. But EU partners imposed on them impossible conditions."

"The political explosion caused some anti-EU sentiment. But membership of the EU is an existential issue."

. @lisaocarroll: "The Covid crisis is different to the eurozone crisis. Feelings are visceral among the public and they will seek to blame the EU if it is seen as culpable."

"This is an existential moment for the EU."

Loukas Tsoukalis: "Solidarity is not immediately forthcoming in the EU."

"But there's no doubt that domestic politics affects outcomes at EU level. Paris and Berlin worry about the impact in Rome."

Loukas Tsoukalis: "A few years ago it was the ECB that tried to save Italy and it does not have the legitimacy. This time it was political leaders, which is different."

. @simonjhix: "The EU is accumulating fundamental issues and has not been able to address them, inc macroeconomic governance and rule of law issues."

"These will come back. The inability or appetite for taking on Orban undermines the EU."

. @simonjhix: "Merkel's exit won't be as important for the EU as people think. Another centrist German leader will mean continuity."

"A different type of leadership in Germany may be more assertive of narrow German national interests."

. @HelenHet20: "Laschet's victory doesn't suggest a major change of direction for Germany."

"There are serious questions for the CDU about its geopolitical choices, such as Nord Stream. Merkel's exit might open up a change on German, and therefore EU, China policy."

Loukas Tsoukalis: "A small difference after Merkel's exit means the next German chancellor will not have the same weight at EU level."

"It's going to be a very difficult period with German and French elections, which means they will find it hard to take tough decisions."

. @simonjhix: "Elections make it more difficult for national leaders to commit to fiscal solidarity. They may also be more willing to take on the Commission."

. @lisaocarroll: "We don't know if the NI Protocol will be viable. The UK and EU didn't use the time to plan how it would be implemented."

"Decision-making has been incredibly opaque on these issues. The Protocol isn't working and this is not a sectarian issue."

. @lisaocarroll: "All sides have responsibility for creating a Protocol that cut right to the issues of sovereignty and identity in Northern Ireland. You do that at your peril."

"These discussions and decisions should have happened 2 years ago."

. @simonjhix: "Some of the issues in NI are teething problems that can be addressed, but ultimately there has to be regulatory checks somewhere - north-south or east-west."

"It is deeply destabilising to the Good Friday Agreement. It will be a festering wound."

Loukas Tsoukalis: "There is a cross-party consensus in the US on the rift between the US and China, and worsening relations with Russia."

"The EU has a difficult decision of whether to follow the US into a potential new Cold War or steer a course between."

. @HelenHet20: "Brexit complicates the EU's position. The UK has made a strategic decision on China."

"Britain is now lined up with the US on Russia and China where the EU isn't. The UK has its own difficulties."

. @simonjhix: "Putin wanted Brexit because it would make it easier to do business with the EU. We didn't think about these geopolitical questions."