Have #DeGea’s cross claiming & sweeping numbers changed dramatically this season in comparison to last season?
Below I will look into #DeGea’s sweeping & cross claiming performance in the 19/20 #PremierLeague season & compare it with his performance so far this year!
Claiming 19/20:
#DeGea prevented 0.77 chances per 90 occurring by claiming crosses
Average #PremierLeague GK prevents 1.10 chances per 90 occurring by claiming crosses
So far #DeGea has prevented 0.74 chances per 90 occurring by claiming crosses
#DeGea has performed in a very similar manner against crosses this year with his willingness to claim & his success when doing so remaining roughly the same.
Another key statistic is that not only has #DeGea’s frequency of pressurised sweeping actions increased so has the distance he is sweeping from his goal line
#DeGea gets a lot of criticism for his shot prevention skills (sweeping & claiming) & the statistics do show he prevents fewer shots occurring than an avg #PL GK but recently his sweeping numbers have improved & hint he has the ability to become an above avg sweeper!
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JWP’s FK is class & it would have been difficult for #DeGea to save regardless but yet again he gives himself no chance by getting his body shape wrong given his positioning
He needs to start higher off his line so his body angle doesn’t force him to dive into the goal!
If #DeGea stands ~1yrd forwards he will be able to cover the wall side without diving backwards into his goal + it won’t hinder his ability to defend his side as while it will cut his reaction time slightly the distance to the far post is such that it won’t make a big difference.
If #DeGea moved too far forwards (ie 2 to 3 yards) then obviously it would make high saves to his side difficult & cut his reaction time by a substantial amount thus make any save more tricky but I’m not suggesting such a big change.
When shots are from close range there is simply not enough time for a GK to react therefore they have to get close to the striker & form a premeditated barrier & shrink the effective goal area & force the striker to “just hit the ball at them”
As the images below show
I analysed 800+ 1v1s in the #PremierLeague last year & using a logistic regression model found that the engage & react strategy that #Guiata regularly employs gives a GK a far lower chance of making the save vs the engage & block & the engage & spread premediated strategies.
Every action a GK performs can be separated into 3 categories:
Save-> here the GK attempts to block the ball going into the goal
Distribution-> here the GK attempts to play the ball to a teammate
Interception-> here the GK attempts to stop the ball from reaching an opponent
Evaluating GK intercepting from public data is difficult as most stats providers split intercepting actions between recoveries, tackles, interceptions, punches, & claims, & the differences between the categories are unclear & not relevant to interception difficulty/importance.
I’ve analysed every single 1v1 situation in the 19/20 #PremierLeague (600+ situations) & calculated using logistic regression the optimum strategy a GK could use to maximise their chance of making the save depending on the situation location & the build-up leading to the chance.
I found that GKs use the following 5 strategies to save 1v1s:
1. Wait deep & then react to the shot 2. Engage & then react to the shot 3. Engage & smother the ball 4. Engage & spread 5. Engage & block
Firstly let’s look at post shot expected goals conceded.
@StatsBomb’s PSExG model takes the position of the shot, the position of the defenders, the speed of the shot & the placement of the shot into account in order to calculate whether an Avg GK would save it.
Using this model #DeGea has played almost exactly to the level of an average #PremierLeague goalkeeper & has conceded -0.2 goals more than expected.
#Henderson on the other hand has saved #SheffieldUnited +6.5 more goals than an avg GK would be expected to!