Thread by @AdamAbebe

#Primer on #Ethiopian Politics

#Unitarist Vs #Federlaist

- Has little to do with level of #decentralisation of power ordinarily associated with these notions

A critical mass of Ethiopians support #federalism-incl most, if not all, forces within ruling party - incl Abiy - 1

For #ethnonationalists, I believe, any politics based on individual #equality (citizenship or republican politics) is #Unitarist - so #Nigeria, #Kenya (which ban ethnic parties), #Germany and #UnitedStates are Unitary, regardless of their robust federal/devolved structures - 2

What ethnonatioanlists consider #federalist is actually politics based on #ethnicity - (which goes beyond ethnic federalism) - much like Arend Lijphart's prototypical #consociational system - so soemthing like #Belgium and #BosniaHerzegovina, but for 80+ ethnic groups – 3

For this group, current #Constitution isn't #consociational enough - as at national level it is pretty majoritarian. #TPLF sought to bypass this extraconstitutionally thru the #EPRDF, which was a consociational party, but only for 4 groups - with the South squeezed into one – 4

So preferred outcome in a potential #dialogue for #ethnonationlists, such as #TPLF, #Oromo opposition, is to preserve status quo, and, if possible, elevate the extraconstitutional EPRDF arrangement to the constitution, i.e. a fully consociational system for 80+ regions - 5.

A #consociational arrangement (#ethnically bounded #federalism plus ethnic #powersharing at the central level) for such a #diverse country with 80+ would, I believe, be an unprecedented experiment (unprecedented does not necessarily mean unworkable) - 6

#Unitarists want to dilute current ethnic federal system, mainly w changes to #electoral (mixed), #government system (presidential), strengthened protection for #minorities in regions, and, if possible, modifying ethnic #boundaries of region, but not to abolish #Federalism – 7

My piece for @ForeignPolicy argues that a #compromise can be found, thru radical mental shift that focuses on #dialogue to decide #HOW these issues should be decided, rather seeking dialogue while conditioning it on contested outcome redlines.

foreignpolicy.com/2021/04/01/eth…

- END

For this group, current #Constitution isn't #consociational enough - as at national level it is pretty majoritarian. #TPLF sought to bypass this extraconstitutionally thru the #EPRDF, which was a consociational party, but only for 4 groups - with the South squeezed into one – 4

So preferred outcome in a potential #dialogue for #ethnonationlists, such as #TPLF, #Oromo opposition, is to preserve status quo, and, if possible, elevate the extraconstitutional EPRDF arrangement to the constitution, i.e. a fully consociational system for 80+ regions - 5.

A #consociational arrangement (#ethnically bounded #federalism plus ethnic #powersharing at the central level) for such a #diverse country with 80+ would, I believe, be an unprecedented experiment (unprecedented does not necessarily mean unworkable) - 6

#Unitarists want to dilute current ethnic federal system, mainly w changes to #electoral (mixed), #government system (presidential), strengthened protection for #minorities in regions, and, if possible, modifying ethnic #boundaries of region, but not to abolish #Federalism – 7

My piece for @ForeignPolicy argues that a #compromise can be found, thru radical mental shift that focuses on #dialogue to decide #HOW these issues should be decided, rather seeking dialogue while conditioning it on contested outcome redlines.

foreignpolicy.com/2021/04/01/eth…

- END