Here’s a nice example of neutral set positions making saves easier

I’ve already discussed #Henderson’s propensity to set quite low this season & here even though he’s taller than #Pickford he tips an almost identical shot into the roof of the net while #Pickford catches it

#ENG
Another key detail from this clip is how #Pickford moves back to his line while #Henderson moves forwards.

This tiny difference in distance thus reaction time can impact on a GKs ability to make the save as it can be the difference between getting 2 hands to the ball & 1 hand.
In this clip #Pickford & #Henderson also make lots of saves with their feet when the service is lower & #Henderson actually struggles with these too as his lower set position means he needs to get his hands out of the way so it doesn’t even give him an advantage for low shots
By the way this is not a dig at #Henderson at all!

He’s a top GK & a great shotstopper!

I just found this clip this lunchtime & thought I would share it as it really powerfully highlighted to me that even the best athletes can struggle if their set position is off.

#ENG
Here’s a tweet I did looking at how one of the factors which contributed to #Henderson conceding this goal was his low set.
Here’s another tweet which I did which had a look at how in the 2nd leg his save was possible partially due to his more upright initial positioning (although it should be noted I feel he could still have been more upright but at least he seems to have improved it somewhat!)

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More from @Jhdharrison1

9 Mar
#Henderson’s cross claiming has been exceptional in his first 5 #PremierLeague appearances

#Henderson boasts a 100% claim success rate while being twice as active the average #PL GK!

His claiming is preventing #ManchesterUnited conceding chances worth ~0.4 ExG per game!

#MUFC
For comparison, #DeGea cross claiming numbers this year are:

Chances Prevented = 0.81
(Only 41% of DH)

ExG Prevented = 0.15
(Only 35% of DH)

Average Claim Distance = 4.5yrd (Only 78% of DH)

Claim Success = 95%
(95% of DH)

Catch Fraction = 58%
(104% of DH)

#ManchesterUnited
For more information on the metrics I quote in the graphics above please see this thread, it explains how I calculate which cross claims prevent chances & which don’t & how I assign ExG values to each claim & why it’s important to look deeper than “total high balls claimed”!
Read 6 tweets
7 Mar
Surely @OptaJoe have to change this definition?

How can you classify a cross-shot as not a shot on target if it’s stopped by the GK but as a shot on target if it goes in!

Surely this definition screws up their ExG model? It’s artificially removing nongoal shots?!

#FPLCommunity Image
Surely any ball with a trajectory such that it would be a goal without a GKs intervention must be a shot on target & a save or at least a save & a “cross on target” if for some reason you want to make two separate categories to distinguish the two.

#PremierLeague #FPL
I didn’t realise Opta had such an odd definition until #MartinezGate

I understand potentially why you wouldn’t want to call it a “shot” but it has to be consistent

I.e

if saved = save
if goal = cross on target

You cant have them be shots on target if goals but not if saves!
Read 5 tweets
21 Feb
THREAD:

Have #DeGea’s cross claiming & sweeping numbers changed dramatically this season in comparison to last season?

Below I will look into #DeGea’s sweeping & cross claiming performance in the 19/20 #PremierLeague season & compare it with his performance so far this year! Image
Claiming 19/20:

#DeGea prevented 0.77 chances per 90 occurring by claiming crosses

Average #PremierLeague GK prevents 1.10 chances per 90 occurring by claiming crosses

Key points

• Attempts to claim infrequently

• Mostly successful when he does attempt to claim

#MUFC Image
Claiming 20/21:

So far #DeGea has prevented 0.74 chances per 90 occurring by claiming crosses

#DeGea has performed in a very similar manner against crosses this year with his willingness to claim & his success when doing so remaining roughly the same.

#MUFC Image
Read 7 tweets
29 Nov 20
JWP’s FK is class & it would have been difficult for #DeGea to save regardless but yet again he gives himself no chance by getting his body shape wrong given his positioning

He needs to start higher off his line so his body angle doesn’t force him to dive into the goal!

#SOUMUN
If #DeGea stands ~1yrd forwards he will be able to cover the wall side without diving backwards into his goal + it won’t hinder his ability to defend his side as while it will cut his reaction time slightly the distance to the far post is such that it won’t make a big difference.
If #DeGea moved too far forwards (ie 2 to 3 yards) then obviously it would make high saves to his side difficult & cut his reaction time by a substantial amount thus make any save more tricky but I’m not suggesting such a big change.
Read 4 tweets
27 Nov 20
Last year #Guaita only saved 36% of the close range 1v1s he faced (only #Kepa & #DeGea were lower)

This is because he rarely forms a premeditated barrier before the shot is struck so gives himself no chance of making the save!

This weakness was exposed again tonight.

#PALNEW
When shots are from close range there is simply not enough time for a GK to react therefore they have to get close to the striker & form a premeditated barrier & shrink the effective goal area & force the striker to “just hit the ball at them”

As the images below show
I analysed 800+ 1v1s in the #PremierLeague last year & using a logistic regression model found that the engage & react strategy that #Guiata regularly employs gives a GK a far lower chance of making the save vs the engage & block & the engage & spread premediated strategies.
Read 8 tweets
19 Sep 20
THREAD:

How important is a goalkeeper’s ability to prevent shots?

Is it of comparable importance to shot stopping ability?

In this thread I will investigate these questions & outline my ExG prevented model using #Alisson as an example.

#PremierLeague #LFC #GKUnion #EPL
Every action a GK performs can be separated into 3 categories:

Save-> here the GK attempts to block the ball going into the goal

Distribution-> here the GK attempts to play the ball to a teammate

Interception-> here the GK attempts to stop the ball from reaching an opponent
Evaluating GK intercepting from public data is difficult as most stats providers split intercepting actions between recoveries, tackles, interceptions, punches, & claims, & the differences between the categories are unclear & not relevant to interception difficulty/importance.
Read 28 tweets

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