Surely any ball with a trajectory such that it would be a goal without a GKs intervention must be a shot on target & a save or at least a save & a “cross on target” if for some reason you want to make two separate categories to distinguish the two.
I didn’t realise Opta had such an odd definition until #MartinezGate
I understand potentially why you wouldn’t want to call it a “shot” but it has to be consistent
I.e
if saved = save
if goal = cross on target
You cant have them be shots on target if goals but not if saves!
My personal opinion is that what should happen is:
Anything from an opposition player that goes into the goal = goal + shot on target
Anything with a trajectory going into the goal from an opposition player that is saved = save + shot on target
Adding the cross category would potentially be more “complete” but it would cause more confusion as it would cause debate between what was a cross on target & a shot on target etc.
Whereas the above definition should be simple to define & use...
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For more information on the metrics I quote in the graphics above please see this thread, it explains how I calculate which cross claims prevent chances & which don’t & how I assign ExG values to each claim & why it’s important to look deeper than “total high balls claimed”!
Have #DeGea’s cross claiming & sweeping numbers changed dramatically this season in comparison to last season?
Below I will look into #DeGea’s sweeping & cross claiming performance in the 19/20 #PremierLeague season & compare it with his performance so far this year!
Claiming 19/20:
#DeGea prevented 0.77 chances per 90 occurring by claiming crosses
Average #PremierLeague GK prevents 1.10 chances per 90 occurring by claiming crosses
So far #DeGea has prevented 0.74 chances per 90 occurring by claiming crosses
#DeGea has performed in a very similar manner against crosses this year with his willingness to claim & his success when doing so remaining roughly the same.
JWP’s FK is class & it would have been difficult for #DeGea to save regardless but yet again he gives himself no chance by getting his body shape wrong given his positioning
He needs to start higher off his line so his body angle doesn’t force him to dive into the goal!
If #DeGea stands ~1yrd forwards he will be able to cover the wall side without diving backwards into his goal + it won’t hinder his ability to defend his side as while it will cut his reaction time slightly the distance to the far post is such that it won’t make a big difference.
If #DeGea moved too far forwards (ie 2 to 3 yards) then obviously it would make high saves to his side difficult & cut his reaction time by a substantial amount thus make any save more tricky but I’m not suggesting such a big change.
When shots are from close range there is simply not enough time for a GK to react therefore they have to get close to the striker & form a premeditated barrier & shrink the effective goal area & force the striker to “just hit the ball at them”
As the images below show
I analysed 800+ 1v1s in the #PremierLeague last year & using a logistic regression model found that the engage & react strategy that #Guiata regularly employs gives a GK a far lower chance of making the save vs the engage & block & the engage & spread premediated strategies.
Every action a GK performs can be separated into 3 categories:
Save-> here the GK attempts to block the ball going into the goal
Distribution-> here the GK attempts to play the ball to a teammate
Interception-> here the GK attempts to stop the ball from reaching an opponent
Evaluating GK intercepting from public data is difficult as most stats providers split intercepting actions between recoveries, tackles, interceptions, punches, & claims, & the differences between the categories are unclear & not relevant to interception difficulty/importance.