Citibank 1/11: Week Ahead – key data/ events:
#USD: CPI MoM – Citi: 0.6%, median: 0.5%, prior: 0.4%; CPI YoY – Citi: 2.7%, median: 2.5%, prior: 1.7%; PI ex Food, Energy MoM – Citi: 0.2%, median: 0.2%, prior: 0.1%; CPI ex Food, Energy YoY – Citi: 1.6%, median: 1.5%, prior: 1.3%
Citibank 2/11: - Citi analysts expect a solid increase of 0.23%MoM in core CPI in March with upside risk for many components. The team expects March to show the start of price gains for a number of components that have been held down by soft demand.
Citibank 3/11: Retail Sales – Citi: 6.3%, median: 5.4%, prior: -3.0%; Retail Sales ex Auto – Citi: 4.9%, median: 4.8%, prior: -2.7%; Retail Sales ex Auto, Gas – Citi: 4.9%, median: 6.3%, prior: -3.3%; Retail Sales Control Group – Citi: 4.7%, median: 6.9%, prior: -3.5% -
Citibank 4/11: Citi analysts expect a strong rebound in retails in March with upside risks seen for many components in the retail control group. This could also help keep prices for various goods elevated after increases over the last year.
Citibank 5/11: #EUR: German #ZEW Expectations, Apr Forecast: 75.0 Prior: 76.6; ZEW Current Assessment, Apr Forec: -65.0 Prior: -61.0 - The 3rd wave of infections & prospect of longer & harder lockdowns could weigh down expectations & in particular current assessment of ZEW in Apr
Citibank 6/11: #NZD: #RBNZ Monetary Policy meeting: Citi cash rate forecast; +25bp (no change), Prev; +25bp (no change) – despite further improvements in global activity, MPC will likely continue to convey a dovish message given the unexpected negative Q4 2020 GDP result of -1.0%
Citibank 7/11: is a reminder that the path to complete recovery is not linear.

#AUD: Australian March Labor Force: Citi employment change; +35k, Prev; +88.7k, Citi unemployment rate forecast; 5.6%, Prev; 5.8% - improvements in employment conditions & job vacancies in Feb/ March
Citibank 8/11: suggest another positive month for jobs growth. April and possibly May data however could exhibit more volatility from the end to JobKeeper program.

#CAD: BoC Business Outlook Survey (Q1) - the overall BOS indicator thus should remain at supportive levels,
Citibank 9/11: with similar strength expected in measures related to future sales expectations and investment plans. More firms indicating capacity constraints would be a further sign that core inflation measures will return closer to target in H2-2021.
Citibank 10/11: #CNH: China GDP (%YoY) 1Q: Citi 16.0, Consensus 18.9, Previous 6.5 – Citi analysts maintain their growth forecast for China at 16%YoY for 21Q1 with risks tilted to the upside. Despite the “stay put” policy on Chinese New Year (CNY) travels, economic activities in
Citibank 11/11: in Jan and Feb remained robust, and the recovery on track. Manufacturing and services PMIs both accelerated more than expected in March, pointing to a strengthening in the growth momentum.

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh

Keep Current with Francesc Riverola - 🎗

Francesc Riverola - 🎗 Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!


Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @Francesc_Forex

14 Apr
UBS 1/4: Don't expect the #volatility lull to last.
Wall Street’s most prominent gauge of investor anxiety, #VIX index of implied stock #volatility, closed at a fresh pandemic-era low near 16.7 last week. But we see reasons to expect periodic bouts of higher volatility near term
UBS 2/4: First, investors are likely to be torn between optimism over accelerating growth and worries over higher inflation. Second, optimism over the course of the pandemic is being tested by the spread of new variants of the virus.
UBS 3/4: Finally, we expect volatility to be driven by increased institutional and retail activity in the options market, along with the increased share of growth stocks in major indexes. However, investors can take advantage of this backdrop.
Read 4 tweets
14 Apr
ING Bank 1/5: Latest #eurozone production figures are weak, but the future looks bright
Industrial production in the eurozone is being held up by input shortages at the moment. This will lead to weaker growth in the first quarter, but underlying demand is strong and that makes us
ING Bank 2/5: upbeat about prospects for the bloc as it reopens later in the year.
February industrial production showed a decline of 1% compared to January. Production had fully recovered to pre-pandemic levels at the start of the year but dipped back later.
ING Bank 3/5: The decline will mean that the manufacturing contribution to GDP may disappoint a bit given the strong performance seen in the fourth quarter, adding to our view of another GDP contraction in 1Q before the economic rebound starts.
Read 5 tweets
14 Apr
Deutsche Bank 1/4: Talking of #vaccines, while we went into yesterday expecting that the CPI reading would dominate attention, the bigger news story instead turned out to be on the pandemic, as the US authorities recommended that the Johnson & Johnson vaccine be paused
Deutsche Bank 2/4: after there were 6 reported cases of a severe blood clot. Though this was among a total number of over 6.8 million who’d received the vaccine in the US, all of the cases happened in women aged between 18 and 48, with symptoms occurring 6-13d after #vaccination
Deutsche Bank 3/4: We should hear more on the issue shortly, with the CDC saying that they’d convene a meeting of the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices today to look further at the cases. Nevertheless, the move is already having ramifications elsewhere,
Read 4 tweets
14 Apr
OCBC Bank 1/4: Overall, the #DXY index was left south of the 92.00 support. This leaves the near-term technical picture bearish for the broad USD, with the immediate target at the 55-day MA (91.52). This round of USD weakness is EUR- and JPY-led, rather than cyclicals-led as in
OCBC 2/4: the case in early-Feb & mid-March. Overlay this with resurgence of confirmed cases in places like India & Canada, & the J&J vaccine set-back, this lack of reaction from the cyclicals may be a reflection that the vaccination / recovery positives have been fully priced in
OCBC Bank 3/4: Large short positions for the likes of AUD and CAD were pared among the non-commercial accounts were pared in 2H 2020, but there is no sign of net longs building this year. Overall, there is room to question the structural global recovery / weak USD theme.
Read 4 tweets
14 Apr
Forex Live 1/5: FX #options expiries for 14 Apr 10am NY cut
There are some sizable ones layered for #EURUSD closer towards 1.1900 but also near current levels, even for tomorrow, so that might attract price action with key resist seen closer towards 1.1990-00 region at the moment ImageImage
Forex Live 2/5: That said, the dollar looks vulnerable across the board with 10-year #Treasury yields also sitting on the cusp of a soft bottom closer to 1.60%, so there's that to consider.

Going over to #USDJPY, that has seen the pair fall below 109.00 - where there are some
Forex Live 3/5: modest and chunky expiries seen this week.
Technically speaking, the break below 109.00 also sees the pair likely to push lower to test the 23 March low @ 108.40 so this just adds to the conviction.

All of that ties together with general dollar sentiment and how
Read 5 tweets
14 Apr
Citibank 1/7: US #CPI strong on transitory components & solid shelter prices
Citi analysts take – the strong increase in March US core CPI released overnight is in line with upside surprises expected in the coming months as a number of components normalize.
Citibank 2/7: Key shelter prices in CPI however show signs of potential earlier-than-expected firming with another solid increase in owners’ equivalent rent (OER), the key shelter price component of consumer price inflation and the largest share of CPI.
Citibank 3/7: Overall, US core CPI in March rises 0.339%MoM, stronger than consensus for 0.2%. Meanwhile core CPI YoY rises to 1.6% and headline CPI gains 0.6%MoM on strength in energy (+5%) and food (up a modest 0.1%).
Read 7 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!

This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal Become our Patreon

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!