Citibank 1/11: Week Ahead – key data/ events:
#USD: CPI MoM – Citi: 0.6%, median: 0.5%, prior: 0.4%; CPI YoY – Citi: 2.7%, median: 2.5%, prior: 1.7%; PI ex Food, Energy MoM – Citi: 0.2%, median: 0.2%, prior: 0.1%; CPI ex Food, Energy YoY – Citi: 1.6%, median: 1.5%, prior: 1.3%
#USD: CPI MoM – Citi: 0.6%, median: 0.5%, prior: 0.4%; CPI YoY – Citi: 2.7%, median: 2.5%, prior: 1.7%; PI ex Food, Energy MoM – Citi: 0.2%, median: 0.2%, prior: 0.1%; CPI ex Food, Energy YoY – Citi: 1.6%, median: 1.5%, prior: 1.3%
Citibank 2/11: - Citi analysts expect a solid increase of 0.23%MoM in core CPI in March with upside risk for many components. The team expects March to show the start of price gains for a number of components that have been held down by soft demand.
Citibank 3/11: Retail Sales – Citi: 6.3%, median: 5.4%, prior: -3.0%; Retail Sales ex Auto – Citi: 4.9%, median: 4.8%, prior: -2.7%; Retail Sales ex Auto, Gas – Citi: 4.9%, median: 6.3%, prior: -3.3%; Retail Sales Control Group – Citi: 4.7%, median: 6.9%, prior: -3.5% -
Citibank 4/11: Citi analysts expect a strong rebound in retails in March with upside risks seen for many components in the retail control group. This could also help keep prices for various goods elevated after increases over the last year.
Citibank 5/11: #EUR: German #ZEW Expectations, Apr Forecast: 75.0 Prior: 76.6; ZEW Current Assessment, Apr Forec: -65.0 Prior: -61.0 - The 3rd wave of infections & prospect of longer & harder lockdowns could weigh down expectations & in particular current assessment of ZEW in Apr
Citibank 6/11: #NZD: #RBNZ Monetary Policy meeting: Citi cash rate forecast; +25bp (no change), Prev; +25bp (no change) – despite further improvements in global activity, MPC will likely continue to convey a dovish message given the unexpected negative Q4 2020 GDP result of -1.0%
Citibank 7/11: is a reminder that the path to complete recovery is not linear.
#AUD: Australian March Labor Force: Citi employment change; +35k, Prev; +88.7k, Citi unemployment rate forecast; 5.6%, Prev; 5.8% - improvements in employment conditions & job vacancies in Feb/ March
#AUD: Australian March Labor Force: Citi employment change; +35k, Prev; +88.7k, Citi unemployment rate forecast; 5.6%, Prev; 5.8% - improvements in employment conditions & job vacancies in Feb/ March
Citibank 8/11: suggest another positive month for jobs growth. April and possibly May data however could exhibit more volatility from the end to JobKeeper program.
#CAD: BoC Business Outlook Survey (Q1) - the overall BOS indicator thus should remain at supportive levels,
#CAD: BoC Business Outlook Survey (Q1) - the overall BOS indicator thus should remain at supportive levels,
Citibank 9/11: with similar strength expected in measures related to future sales expectations and investment plans. More firms indicating capacity constraints would be a further sign that core inflation measures will return closer to target in H2-2021.
Citibank 10/11: #CNH: China GDP (%YoY) 1Q: Citi 16.0, Consensus 18.9, Previous 6.5 – Citi analysts maintain their growth forecast for China at 16%YoY for 21Q1 with risks tilted to the upside. Despite the “stay put” policy on Chinese New Year (CNY) travels, economic activities in
Citibank 11/11: in Jan and Feb remained robust, and the recovery on track. Manufacturing and services PMIs both accelerated more than expected in March, pointing to a strengthening in the growth momentum.
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