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Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) Profile picture
@IHME_UW
May 6, 2021 • 13 tweets • 6 min read • Read on X
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This morning, we're releasing a major change in our COVID-19 model (➡️covid19.healthdata.org). We're now incorporating excess mortality to approximate the total COVID-19 death rate worldwide.
Our understanding of the magnitude of COVID-19 to date has been much worse than what we have been thinking. 🗓️ We are also extending our COVID-19 projections out to September 1, 2021 (they previously went out to August 1, 2021).
With this total COVID-19 mortality adjustment, these are the countries that we estimate currently have the highest total COVID-19 deaths .vs. reported COVID-19 deaths: Image
This map reflects what we estimate to be the total COVID-19 death rate through May 3, 2021: Image
What kind of statistical methods are we using to calculate total COVID-19 mortality? Dr. Murray explains:
Reported COVID-19 mortality is strongly related to how much testing a country has done. So total COVID-19 mortality includes predicted ratios, and we've used these kinds of statistical methods in our annual #GBDstudy.
Key takeaways on our new modeling approach outlined below. 📺 To watch the full video of Dr. Murray discussing total COVID-19 mortality, visit: bit.ly/IHME-Episodes Image
Our press release on this major update to our modeling methods ⬇️ healthdata.org/news-release/c…
Detailed description of our new excess mortality methods ⬇️ healthdata.org/special-analys…
COVID-19 is a larger cause of a death in the United States than the 1918 influenza pandemic, says IHME Director Dr. Christopher Murray. The total population size of the US was much smaller back then, so it's not the same rate. ➡️covid19.healthdata.org
In addition to incorporating total COVID-19 mortality, we've also extended our projections out to September 1 (they previously went out to August 1). Dr. Murray shares key model insights 📈🌍🌏🌎⤵️

COVID-19 model📊covid19.healthdata.org
Full video 📺 bit.ly/IHME-Episodes
COVID-19 is the #1 cause of death in the world this week. We are observing about 30,000 deaths per day and estimate that 21% of people globally have been infected as of May 3. healthdata.org/sites/default/… Image
We are expecting 9.4 million cumulative deaths from COVID-19 by September 1, 2021 at the global level, according to our model. That’s an extra nearly 2.5 million deaths from now until September 1.

COVID-19 model 📊 covid19.healthdata.org
Full video 📺 bit.ly/IHME-Episodes

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More from @IHME_UW

Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) Profile picture
Dec 1, 2023
Despite impressive achievements made to test and treat #HIV/#AIDS, there are still significant inequities in access to care globally. Investment is key to addressing these gaps in care. #WorldAIDSDay Image
According to the Global Burden of Disease (#GBDstudy): Since the 1980s more than 30 million people have died from #AIDS-related illnesses
863,000 #HIV-related deaths occurred in 2019
36.8 million people were living with HIV in 2019
70.7% of people living with HIV in 2019 lived in sub-Saharan Africa

🔎bit.ly/410Asqu
Read 7 tweets
Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) Profile picture
Mar 23, 2023
All US states struggled during the pandemic, but were outcomes across states equal? Not according to analysis from @UW’s IHME examining state-by-state comparisons of health outcomes, education loss, & economic performance from Jan 1, 2020-July 31, 2022 🧵 bit.ly/COVID_By_State Title: Did politics make a difference? The states with the
The research examined how 5 🔑 areas affected each state’s pandemic performance:
-Social, racial & economic inequities
-Health care capacity
-Political influence
-COVID-19 mandates
-Economic & educational trade-offs
Did your state’s government make use of healthcare services for COVID-19 vaccinations?

Among states that voted Democrat in 2020, states with stronger health systems had the highest rates of vaccine uptake, but not among states that voted Republican. “The initial response from states in March of 2020 was fai
Read 10 tweets
Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) Profile picture
Feb 17, 2023
A previous COVID infection may result in natural immunity against severe disease (hospitalization & death) for all variants (≥ 88% at 10 months post-infection).
This is on par with 2 doses of mRNA vaccines (@moderna_tx, @pfizer), finds new IHME study. bit.ly/COVIDReinfecti… Immunity from any previous COVID-19 infection, regardless of
As the most comprehensive analysis to provide evidence on natural immunity protection by COVID-19 variants, the study includes data for ancestral, Alpha, Delta, and Omicron BA.1 variants. The study did not include data on infection from Omicron XBB and its sublineages.
Natural immunity from COVID-19 infection was seen to wane and vary by variant infection. For instance, past infection with pre-Omicron variants provided substantially reduced natural immunity against reinfection with Omicron BA.1. At the 40-week mark, ancestral, Alpha, and Delta COVID-19 va
Read 8 tweets
Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) Profile picture
Feb 16, 2023
The global burden of cancer in children is often overlooked despite being a distinct subgroup with unique epidemiology, clinical care needs, & societal impact. For International Childhood #Cancer Day, we want to address the burden inequities that exist around the world #ICCD2023 IHME acknowledges International Childhood Cancer Day 2023
Childhood cancer (affecting ages 0-19) was the #9 leading cause of childhood disease burden globally in 2017. Children in low-income places are most impacted: 82% of global childhood cancer DALYs occurred in low & middle socio-demographic Index locations.
»healthdata.org/research-artic…
More than 11 MILLION YEARS of healthy life were estimated to be lost due to childhood cancer in 2017. Collectively childhood cancers were the #6 biggest contributor to total cancer burden when compared to individual cancers in adults (such as lung, liver, stomach, colon & breast) ALT TEXT Contribution of childhood cancer to global cancer (
Read 5 tweets
Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) Profile picture
Dec 19, 2022
What's going on with #China and #COVID-19?

Model 📈 covid19.healthdata.org
Blog 🗨️ bit.ly/IHME-Episodes
Briefings 📊 healthdata.org/covid/updates

Here's the breakdown: a thread 🧵 The daily reported COVID-19 death rate per 1 million in Chin
What we're expecting in #China:
- Major #omicron epidemic in coming months
- According to our reference scenario, we expect 323,000 total deaths by 4/1/23
- Infections to peak around 4/1, but we expect number of susceptible individuals to sustain transmission months after April
What about #vaccines?

Although there is a high #vaccination rate, there's comparatively low effectiveness of the vaccines used in #China against Omicron & the large gap since vaccination for many individuals means that 80% of the population is susceptible to #Omicron infection.
Read 13 tweets
Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) Profile picture
Mar 11, 2022
🆕 ✨According to a new @theLancet study on excess deaths, IHME’s Haley Comfort, Spencer Pease, & Stefanie Watson discuss there were 18 MILLION #ExcessDeaths due to the pandemic in 2020 & 2021. Read their post about the study in @ThinkGlobalHlth ⤵
thinkglobalhealth.org/article/covid-…
💡What are #ExcessDeaths? It’s a measure comparing the trends of deaths in previous years vs. deaths during the #COVID19 pandemic. The abnormal spike in deaths during 2020 and 2021 → excess deaths
Deaths ⬆️ than expected: #India, #US, #Russia, #Mexico, #Brazil, #Indonesia, #Pakistan accounted for over half the world’s 18mil excess deaths, partially due to population size
Read 6 tweets

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