Exponential Growth: a short thread with pictures

Physicist Albert Allen Bartlett said, referring to overpopulation, "The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function."

It's also the shortcoming of a #crypto trader atm.
So we all saw $ETC's face melting run recently. Look at this disgusting chart. Obviously #cryptocurrencies are all scams, and nothing means anything anymore right?
But have a look at it on Log scale. Log is an exponential scale (same distance between 1 and 10 as it is between 10 and 100).

If crypto follows an adoption cycle, follows Metcalfe's law, then we should expect exponential growth.

This chart looks normal, right?
I'm not 100% on that yellow channel btw, but it looks neat so far hey.

Now check out $BTC in Linear.
Ewww gross. Wouldn't go near it, right?

How about Log?

Will you look at this gorgeous #BTC channel? Such a healthy pattern, showing steady growth. Not the scary, overextended thing we saw in Linear scale.

(Pretty happy with those purple lines I drew a while ago hey!)
6/n: An aside
Those lines have the cycle top being around September October btw, and the target is over $200k. I'm not gonna try to predict an accurate top. That's not my game.

But I did a little thread about why I think the cycle ends there...
$LTC is back to its 2017 ATHs. What happens now?

I think it more than doubles. Just like $ETC.

Here's a rough target, with a linear scale.

And again in Log.

Again, I'm not certain of the channel. But it all looks pretty easy doesn't it?
I believe successful trading is like 65% emotional regulation. The rest is knowing chart patterns and risk management, etc.

Know your biases and limitations.

When it come to #TA, trust the chart, not your heart.
I've been looking at these macro setups on a bunch of #dinocoins. I was watching $ETC for its pattern completion before it hit its 2017 highs.

Seeing that play out gave me confidence in my thesis.

Check out my first thread:

Follow&Retweet pls 😊

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More from @saladpingers

11 May
How to trade Futures on @FTX_Official (not financial advice, obvs)

I only learned about futures a year ago. There are dangers to be aware of, but they're a great way to leverage your capital and multiply your earning potential.

I'mma run you through "buying" some...

I've got a few subaccounts on FTX. Highly recommend you do this, because each one is isolated. If you mess up and lose it all in one subaccount, the rest aren't impacted.

In this account I've got some $ETH and some USD.
You will need something there as collateral.

In Settings, then Margin, you can see what is accepted as collateral. My understanding is that the USD in my subaccount is a stablecoin, not FIAT. So it counts, along with the $ETH. Someone correct me if I'm wrong pls.

You might want your collateral to be non-volatile...
Read 25 tweets
10 May
For anyone who is new to #crypto:
That shakeout/correction/retracement we just had, is a normal part of the market. Despite what influencers on CT might say, no one can predict exactly when it will happen. We will resume #uponly again. But the dump might not even be over.
This is why risk management is so important. If you're using a trading platform, set Stop Losses. Make sure your Margin Fraction isn't too close to your Maintenance Margin Requirement. Don't use leverage if you don't know how to protect yourself.
Also emotional management is super important. Maybe more important. It's your emotions that will get you, making you buy in as something is crashing, hoping to catch the bottom. Or refusing to sell at the top because you want it to go up more.
Read 4 tweets
9 May
I reckon we've got a few months left of this cycle. I believe it's going to top out around September. Based on Stock to Flow. Whether Stock to Flow is correct or not, it is a meme, so will be manifested by traders who are setting bids/asks based on it, etc.
I think in the nearterm, a rising tide can lift all boats. BTC can keep rising. That means hodlers and good traders have profits to deploy to alts. It also means more and more normies enter and go, "Oh BTC is way too expensive now. What's cheap?". That can drive alts up too.
I also think alts can have big drawbacks and the setups would still be in tact/healthy. ETC was vertical. I don't know if the others will be. Here's LTC making its way up. It's messy, but see the red highlighter over those retracements? The alts could do this while BTC flies.
Read 6 tweets
7 May
That was close 😯 Image
What would you do?

#doge Image
The answer was #hodl #doge Image
Read 4 tweets
7 May
Who else was looking at $etc before it broke 2017 ATHs?

Give me a retweet and a follow if you'd be so kind, so I can share my charts and thoughts with more people :)

#etc #altseason #btc #trading
@Zen_Trades1 see this?
Read 5 tweets

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