#B16171 variant is 6.8-fold less susceptible to neutralization by sera from infection & vaccinated (Pfizer & Moderna) subjects. Despite this, most of the sera from convalescents (79%) & all from vaccinated subjects were still able to neutralize the variant biorxiv.org/content/10.110…
#Covaxin retains efficacy against #B1617: Only minimal reductions in the neutralization observed against B1617; Neutralization reduction by a factor of 1.95 & 1.8 was observed against the B1617 variant for B1 (D614G) & B117 variant, respectively. biorxiv.org/content/10.110…
#B16171 variant is highly pathogenic in hamsters than B1 (D614G) variant! B1617 demonstrates higher pathogenicity evident with reduced body weight, higher viral load in lungs & pronounced lung lesions as compared to B1 biorxiv.org/content/10.110…
Potential impacts of #B1617 variant on Vaccine Effectiveness or therapeutics, or reinfection risks, remain uncertain. However, it is highly transmissible. Lab studies suggest a limited reduction in neutralization by antibodies; however, real-world impacts may be limited
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
The #Indian variant (#B16172) may be the most transmissible variant yet identified!!
This variant is 60% more transmissible than the #UK variant (#B117), & 2.6 times more transmissible than the original strain (B1)!
The #B16172 has now become the dominant variant in almost all key states on India. Data patchy (n=4480 since Jan. 2021 of which 1690 B.1.617+) but clear patterns. Data courtesy @TWenseleers
According to a new modelling study shared by @TWenseleers, the Indian VOC #B16172 would have a growth rate advantage of 7% per day over B.1.617.1 or of 10% per day relative to the UK variant B.1.1.7.
A very interesting yet a bit complicated paper. First, let’s go through the key findings of the paper:
1) the distribution of viral loads observed in asymptomatic population was indistinguishable from what has been reported in hospitalized populations 1/
2) regardless of symptomatic status, approx. 50% of individuals who test positive for #SARSCoV2 seem to be in noninfectious phases of the infection 2/ pnas.org/content/118/21…
3) just 2% of infected individuals carry 90% of the virions circulating within communities, serving as viral “supercarriers” & likely also superspreaders 3/
The WHO declared a coronavirus variant first identified in India, B.1.617, as a “variant of concern,” the agency’s fourth such designation wsj.com/articles/coron…
One can understand the gravity of this announcement: The Indian variant, #B1717 is now clubbed with UK #B117, SA #B1351 & Brazil’s #P1
I think this data is saying "Take B.1.617 very seriously and surge test, contact trace, support isolation of cases & contacts, ring vaccinate - NOW" @chrischirp Look, experts from UK are sounding alert on a variant originated from here! And what was our response?
Is there any role of large-scale vaccination in containing the ongoing surge in #India? The current estimate of herd immunity threshold is around 60%-70% based on the estimate with old variant #D614G. 1/
With the advent of new, more transmissible #variants, the estimate for a herd immunity threshold may further go up. The pace of inoculation is very sluggish, inoculated a meagre 2.0 % of our population with 2 doses! May take few years to reach anywhere near the threshold 2/
We are currently on the ascending limb of an outbreak propelled by a highly transmissible virus with a high reproduction number (Ro). Further, there is confusion over what it means to reach herd immunity 3/
Have we reached to the peak of 2nd #Covid wave in India? May be, yes! Its already 2.5 months in to it. Most badly affected countries peaked within 1.5-3 months of onset of a new surge. Is it too early to comment? 1/
More interesting would be to see which way our curve goes: the UK/Israel or the US way! While both UK/Israel took 1.5-2 months to flatten their curves w/ strict lockdowns & aggressive vaccination, US had a long plateau (>3.5 months) 2/
However, there is heterogeneity in caseloads: While states like MH, UP, CG, PB, DL are showing ⬇️ in case load, some southern & eastern states (KA, KL, AP, TN, WB, ) still reporting cases in high numbers! What is driving Covid in these states? 3/ indiatoday.in/coronavirus-ou…