Thread by @althecat

This thread needs some additional context lest it be interpreted as suggesting that #KelloMedia @KelloMedia is an unreliable source.

But deep fakes are a problem and authenticating recordings and videos in this day and age is a significant problem.

https://twitter.com/althecat/status/1402210577221554176

This recording stands out because:
a) its explosive nature and
b) because of its wide dissemination and the implications that come from it in relation to the fairness of the election.
c) because it was explicitly denied by the Prime Minister.

The also addresses two wider issues, the first of which relates to elections everywhere, and the second which relates to the specific conditions of this election.

In the CPJ safety handbook for journalists misinformation is directly addressed. cpj.org/2021/06/ethiop…

In this case we have a recording, probably assessed carefully by @KelloMedia and deemed important enough to run. And it is ideal example to help those who are supporters of democracy to understand both issues.

This is the report.

It is presented very dramatically and you need to fast forward to get to the audio and the subtitles. The audio is not great, and broken in places, and for this reason probably impossible to verify with confidence.

It is understandable that @KelloMedia published it as its the sort of explosive piece of media that can influence the outcome of an election.

#KelloMedia is doing a good job of championing the issue of election freedom in relation to the Oromo people, numbered at 37 Million and the largest ethnic group in Ethiopia making up 35% of the population of 112-114 million.

It is also a fact that there is a militant violent separatist wing of the Oromo who have killed numerous people. There is an ongoing militarised security clampdown underway in Ethiopia seeking to stop it. And that large numbers of Oromo politicians are in jail.

@KelloMedia is doing a great job of highlighting these issues and (I am making an assumption here) but I presume that they are also seeking to ensure that Oromo people cast their votes to achieve as much Oromo representation as possible as a result of this election.

Their latest report is great. Highlighting a very newsworthy story about a student, Mohammed Deksiso, who spoke up at his graduation ceremony about Oromo human rights abuses and has now disappeared.

The story highlights the level of justified disappointment felt by the Oromo about how the courts and security services are dealing with Oromo in general and Mohammed Deksiso specifically and rightly holds the Premier Abiy Ahmed and the Chief Justice to account for this.

All that said though, @KelloMedia is not an external dispassionate observe and cannot be expected to be. This is an election and their focus is the interests of a large section of Ethiopian society, the Oromo, who as I have said have legitimate grievances.

This far the story is not that different from that in most elections. Most media publications have allegiances, several of UK newspapers certainly do. Politics and elections are competitions for power.

But this Ethiopian Election is unique in some of the challenges it faces.

And these unique challenges make it a uniquely dangerous and momentous exercise of democratic freedoms.

Top of the list here is that this is the first free democratic election in Ethiopia's very long history. So everybody is going into this with a lot of hope for the future.

Secondly it is taking place with an active war underway in Tigray. And a volatile dispute over the #GERD dam with two neighbours.

This means there are lots of parties who have an interest in the outcome. And who may be interfering in it actively.

Thirdly the leaders of the former Government are the people who are now at war with the current government.

Fourthly, the international community was asleep at the wheel when former President Trump started interfering with the #GERD situation in ways that may have contributed to the Tigray War.

Fifthly, and this is important, the U.S. is an historic ally of Ethiopia and also a country in which the former rulers TPLF have a lot of influence.

Sixthly Abiy Ahmed is the recipient of a Nobel Peace Prize, and the fact that his Government is now involved in a war in which terrible atrocities are happening is pretty much the only story that the international media are interested in covering.

So how does this impact on @KelloMedia, who are not connected to the Tigrayan people directly?

Well in politics the enemy of your enemy is at times your friend and these dynamics are playing our massively in this election, making it inordinately complicated.

As the genocide and human rights abuses accusations against Abiy Ahmed are the context of the election, it naturally follows that this is the basis that he and the Prosperity Party have to fight the election on. And it is a very hard hand to play.

And as the former rulers of Ethiopia, former allies of the U.S. are now so influential internationally, he also has to fight this election internationally, against both the media and foreign diplomatic services and political lobby groups.

Add in the ethnic tensions, exacerbated by Abiy Ahmed's actions in arresting significant numbers of Oromo and this election is taking place in the middle of a powder keg of intrigue.

These days ordinary elections have now become seething cauldrons of misinformation. Add into that mix a war, several insurgencies and a powerful well connected diaspora and the perfect villain narrative and you might think it impossible for Abiy to win. And maybe he won't.

Which takes us back to the either deepfake or real recording. One of the reasons it is so plausible that he is allegedly heard saying that he will rule for 10 years is that everybody thinks Abiy will win.

And indeed he probably will. Inspite of all of this.

And the lack of a strong Oromo candidate on the ballot is a contributor to this but it is not the only one.

When a nation is under attack, as Ethiopia currently is, the people will often turn to the leader who they think is the strongest and most able to protect the country.

In these circumstances one person's human rights / justice abuses are another's strong leadership.

Which takes me back to @KelloMedia's latest, very well done report. Which if you haven't watched you should.

The story of the disappearance of fresh faced teenager Mohammed Deksiso contains quite a lot. And not all of it is an indictment of Abiy Ahmed.

In particular that the story is being told at all is hopeful. And not only by @KelloMedia also by @addisstandard a courageous newspaper published in Addis Ababa.

And its being published during this election.
addisstandard.com/news-police-in…

The @addisstandard & @KelloMedia accounts of the story are fair. There is criticism of the Govt. yes but also a reasonably nuanced discussion of the surrounding circumstances. There are also responses from official sources. Including support from Govt. agencies for investigation.

On the other hand, much of the other context listed above this thread is missing. Because the audiences already know this.

However form an international perspective from the likes of @Guardian contributor @KjetilTronvoll all this context is missing.

In watching the leadup to this election over the last two months I personally am encouraged greatly by what I see. And I am appalled by the shallowness of so much of the international coverage, though there are bright spots.

I wish Ethiopia and its 112-114 million people a good election.

And I ask the international media to try harder to actually pay attention to what is really going on here.

The story is not what you think it is.

I.E. this is not a story about genocide in Tigray.

/ends

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