Today's forecasts for #NorthAfrica, and the #HornOfAfrica follow.

This 1st image shows the monsoon spreading westwards across the Bay of Bengal. I think it is relevant to the rains in Africa but you will need to wait till the final tweet to see how.

#Ethiopia #Sudan #GERD #Nile
The strength of the West African Monsoon continues to grow as you can see in the animation above. During the current active period (See also #EuropeBigWet) the Sahara is forecast to reach a point where there is water over most of the great desert. Here are 10d rainfall forecasts.
This image this evening shows a cluster of #ArabianStorms around Medina yet again and storms over Yemen. Storms are also forming over Ethiopia but this is not yet the rainy season. The westerly wind can also be seen - and my understanding is this will eventually bring big rains.
Here are todays June 8th 12 & 10-Day rainfall forecasts for the #HornOfAfrica

#Ethiopia #SouthSudan #Sudan #GERD #Somaliland #Somalia #Djibouti #Eritrea #Yemen
I am changing up the short range forecasts to two days. I.E. today and tomorrow's rainfall. There is a huge range between the model forecasts. We shall soon see which is right.
Here is an animation of the #HoA today at sunset and after. The cloud builds until sunset and continues after. We have seen this with westerlies before. Today's clouds are directly over the Abbay watershed - i.e. feeding the #GERD
Here you see a wider view of the #HornOfAfrica today before dark.
And here is a closeup of today's #ArabianStorms arranged symmetrically in an arc from the Oman Border to the mountains north of Medina.
Which brings us to the live report section courtesy of @Arab_Storms wonderful account which is well worth a follow.

Here we have a flooded riverbed in Oman
A hail storm south of Samail, also in Oman
10-Day June 8th, accumulated rain forecasts for the #MiddleEast from the GFS, ECMWF, CMC & KMA weather models.

#ArabianStorms

#KSA #Yemen #Oman #Jordan #Sudan #Iran #Syria #GERD #Sudan #DesertRain

الله أعلم
48 Hour June 8th (today and tomorrow), accumulated rain forecasts for the #MiddleEast from the GFS, ECMWF, CMC & KMA weather models.

#ArabianStorms

#KSA #Yemen #Oman #Jordan #Sudan #Iran #Syria #GERD #Sudan #DesertRain
12 & 16 Day June 8th, accumulated rain forecasts for the #MiddleEast from the KMA and GFS weather models.

#ArabianStorms

#KSA #Yemen #Oman #Jordan #Sudan #Iran #Syria #GERD #Sudan #DesertRain
Which brings me to the conclusion of today's forecasts and as promised an explanation for the first image - showing the monsoon over South East Asia expanding West.

In the regular 384 hour rainfall forecast above you see rainfall on the coast of Yemen.
This animation shows what is expected to cause this rain - that is an gradual extension of monsoon rains across Pakistan and the Arabian Sea, reaching Yemen at the very end.
This animation shows a view of the underlying water in the atmosphere which is also moving West over the course of the simulation.

And at the end of this period westerly winds coming off this monsoon, as I understand it, are what power the big rainy season in the #HornOfAfrica.
/ENDS

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More from @althecat

8 Jun
Today's #EuropeBigWet update. Russia is getting pummelled. Italy is on fire with thunderstorms and central Europe is getting busy.

For context click on the hashtag for earlier episodes. This has been building up for a while. Thread....
It started modestly even though the warm air over Europe is increasingly saturated with moisture. And then as the day got hotter the thunderstorms got active.
This afternoon Italy in particular looks as if it is undergoing something potentially rather dangerous.
Read 11 tweets
8 Jun
This thread needs some additional context lest it be interpreted as suggesting that #KelloMedia @KelloMedia is an unreliable source.

But deep fakes are a problem and authenticating recordings and videos in this day and age is a significant problem.
This recording stands out because:
a) its explosive nature and
b) because of its wide dissemination and the implications that come from it in relation to the fairness of the election.
c) because it was explicitly denied by the Prime Minister.
The also addresses two wider issues, the first of which relates to elections everywhere, and the second which relates to the specific conditions of this election.

In the CPJ safety handbook for journalists misinformation is directly addressed. cpj.org/2021/06/ethiop…
Read 36 tweets
8 Jun
After acknowledging this recording is fake
@KjetilTronvoll tweeted this BBC news report based on it.

Media and those involved in peace & conflict need to be careful with unverified information when engaged in an information warfare environment.
Here is his earlier tweet. He claims that a high ranking party member of the Prosperity Party authenticated it for him.

The lesson in this is simple: If you don't know whether incendiary information is true or false don't spread it.
The @guardian has now published a ill-considered incendiary op-ed by @KjetilTronvoll containing his reckons on a subject he doesn't appear to be treating with care. He seeks resignations over a complex war the details of which remain far from clear. theguardian.com/global-develop…
Read 14 tweets
7 Jun
Let me get this straight professor. You now acknowledge inadvertently spreading misinformation/disinformation in the lead up to this election, you continue to accuse the #Ethiopian Govt. of engaging in it.
As a professor of peace/conflict studies you would be aware that this is Ethiopia’s first shot at a real free and fair democratic election, and you would be aware of the already heightened domestic very lethal tensions, and not just in Tigray. And yet you continue to stoke these.
The Ethiopian Govt is clear they have asked Eritrean troops to leave but they have not yet left, even though undertakings to do so were provided to the U.S.

It is also clear that Tigrayan forces initiated this war and continue - with assistance unknown - to pursue it.
Read 4 tweets
7 Jun
Today's #Sahara & #HornOfAfrica rainfall forecasts follow.

It is now two weeks till the first open democratic #Ethiopian election.
To open here's a high resolution satellite image of the Nile Basin from Cairo to Lake Victoria including Eastern Ethiopia where the #GERD dam is located, and where the Blue Nile - source of much of the Nile's flow - originates in Lake Tana (the heart shaped lake).
We will zoom in on the #HornOfAfrica starting with the wider picture. On the left side of this image you can see a #WesternSahara water transport event which is significantly impacting weather conditions in Europe. (See more in the attached thread )
Read 17 tweets
7 Jun
Today's #EuropeBigWet Update.

The main source of water into the European zone remains a flow of water across the Sahara north, now on a broad front bringing rain along a 1700km wide front from France to the Aegean.
Notably the unusual circulation of thunderstorms north of the Black Sea has grown to 2000kms wide and now extends all the way to the Baltic. This system appeared with the #WesternSaharaPlume and appears to be fed by it.
This animation from @Meteoblue shows an apparently connected outflow heading East across northern Russia.
Read 10 tweets

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