94 crore people need to be immunized in India as of now. So that's 188 crore doses of #CovidVaccine needed. 28 crore doses already made. Around 160 crore doses needed. 25% of this to Private sector is 40 crore. Assume 3/4th of this 25% get #COVISHIELD and 1/4th get #Covaxin
At ₹600 per dose that's a cool ₹18,000 crore for @SerumInstIndia and at 1200 per dose, ₹12000 crore for @BharatBiotech . Pvt.hospitals get to make approx. ₹6000 crore as service charge.Overall cost to public ₹36,000 crore. @adarpoonawalla has said Covishield got him a small
profit at ₹150/dose and Krishna Ella said one dose of Covaxin wd be cheaper than a bottle of mineral water. Taking them at their word had Govt fixed the price of vaccine even at ₹300 per dose,procured them directly and distributed to Pvt sector the 25% doses they said they wd,
total cost to Govt wd be just ₹12000 crore. Add the ₹6000 crore hospital service charge and the total cost wd hv been ₹18000 crore. Also more affordable vaccines to ppl at ₹150 per dose. To benefit 2 companies public have to shell out ₹36000 crore
at a time when their finances are already crumbling. Obviously as more vaccines come in it may not be just 2 companies but a few more and the math wd change.Duty of Govt at any time is to put people first. During a pandemic even more so. It is still not too late to change course
Get the manufacturing cost from vaccine makers. Give them a decent profit for their efforts. Buy their entire vaccine production and distribute. Free at Govt vaccine centers and ₹150 per dose at pvt. Centres.
PS:My math is weak. Recheck the numbers. #covid19 #covid

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More from @sumanthraman

24 Apr
An important thread on the #Oxygen situation in Tamil Nadu. This information is obtained after speaking to some of the manufacturers including R.Kannan former President of the AIIGMA.
1.Tamil Nadu+Puducherry daily Oxygen production is usually around 420 Metric Tons. #CovidIndia
(Inox 140 MT, Praxair100 MT, National Oxygen Puducherry 40 MT)are among the large producers of O2 in TN/Py. Others are small manufacturers.
2.This 420 MT includes both Industrial and Medical Oxygen.
3.Right now demand has gone up to around 500-520 MT/day. Shortages hv started
4. Increasing capacity of existing plants can be done in two ways. One by getting them to maximize capacity they can add maybe 5% more. By allowing air separator plants to supply 93% O2 instead of 99% O2 as PSA plants are already allowed,may help them add another 10% capacity.
Read 10 tweets
17 Apr
நடிகர் #விவேக் இறந்ததற்கு காரணம் தடுப்பூசியா?இல்லை,என்று திட்டவட்டமாக மருத்துவர்கள் கூறிவிட்டார்கள். அவர் இதயத்தில் ஒரு முக்கிய ரத்த குழாய் 100% அடைப்பு ஏற்பட்டிருந்தது.இது ஒரு நாளில் ஏற்பட வாய்ப்பில்லை. Whatsapp இல் வரும் செய்திகளை நம்பாதீர்கள். Covid தடுப்பூசி பாதுகாப்பானது.
உலகெங்கும் 50 கோடிக்கும் அதிகமான மக்கள் இதனை செலுத்திக்கொண்டு நலமாக உள்ளனர்.தடுப்பூசிகளால் ஏற்படும் தீவிரமான பக்கவிளைவுகள் அபூர்வமானவை(v. rare).பல கோடி மக்களுக்கு இந்தியாவில் தடுப்பூசி போடப்பட்டுள்ளது.சில நூறு நபர்களுக்கு பக்கவிளைவுகள்.அவர்களில் பெரும்பாலானோர் குணமடைந்துள்ளனர்
நாம் தினசரி எடுத்துக்கொள்ளும் பல மருந்துகளைவிட தடுப்பூசிகளால் ஏற்படும் பக்க விளைவுகள் மிகவும் குறைவு.
நாம் எப்போதுமே ரிஸ்க் வெர்சஸ் ரிவார்ட் என்று பார்ப்போம் . தடுப்பூசி போடுவதில் அதிக ரிஸ்க் இருக்கிறதா அல்லது Covid நோய் வந்தால் அதிக ரிஸ்க் உள்ளதா?
Read 4 tweets
11 Apr
My take on what the result of the #TamilNaduElections could be. This is based on hundreds of conversations with people across the State including politicians, journalists and public over the last 5 days. The feedback I got is in this thread... #tamilnaduelection2021
1.Chennai:DMK seems headed for a comfortable win. AIADMK will be happy if they get more than 3-4 seats out of the 16.
2. Northern Belt: Vanniar consolidation has happened. Only question is how much. And has there been a counter polarization of other castes against AIADMK-BJP?
Out of the 78 seats in the Vanniar/Northern Belt there is a tight contest with a 50-50 split.
3. Kongu belt is clearly an AIADMK +edge area. They expect to win around 70% of the 58 seats in the region. If they do badly here, game over.
4. Cauvery Delta is a DMK+ win area.
Read 15 tweets
10 Apr
@the_hindu reminded me it was the birth anniversary of an extraordinary physician and teacher of ours, Dr.A.M.Selvaraj. Prof.AMS as he was known was a legend in his life time. Immaculately dressed in a 3 piece suit & smoking a pipe, he reminded us of a "propah" British gentleman
His ability to diagnose tough cases had few equals and his evening clinic would go on from 5 p.m. until 2 a.m. or beyond. Sometimes patients wd just sleep over in the clinic and he wd see them in the morning. His laid back demeanor hid a razor sharp mind.
So many of the patients who came to see him were those whom other docs had not been able to diagnose and so one wd see a variety of clinical conditions. He had some kind of an intuition that enabled him to make the diagnosis, sometimes even without a systematic review.
Read 5 tweets
15 Mar
Why the #AIADMKManifesto promise of a Govt job for every family is simply not possible.Thread....
TN has around 14 lakh State Govt employees. Roughly that would cover around 56 lakh people ( 4 ppl per family). Let us take only BPL families to see if this promise is feasible
TN has around 60 lakh BPL families. Presumably if one of them had a Govt job they wouldn't be below the poverty line. So this means that 60 lakh Govt jobs have to be given. That means number of Govt employees will go up from 14 lakh to around 75 lakh.
Now let us do the math. Today around 62% of State's revenues goes towards salaries and pensions for Govt staff. 1 lakh crore goes just for this. Salary component alone is around 65000 crore. If number of Govt staff increases by 5 times, wage bill alone goes up to 3.2 lakh crore
Read 8 tweets
25 Feb
The inescapable conclusion is that the 2nd wave of #Covid has stared in India. Not just in Maharashtra or Kerala. Cases are rising in many States,Punjab, Telangana,Tamil Nadu, Karnataka,Delhi etc.This is a big worry as we have wasted the last month by not speeding up vaccination
of the vulnerable. We cannot lockdown the economy again but we need to do the following ASAP.
1.Reintroduce the ban on crowds, large gatherings, rallies.
2.Enforce fines for not wearing masks.
3.Speed up vaccination by opening 24*7 vaccination centers
4.Encourage work from home
for those workers who can.
5.Start ICE campaign perhaps with celebrities saying that #COVID19 risk very much remains and that precautions must continue to be taken.
6.Enhance capacity for monitoring for new strains
7.Get rid of this app based registration process
Read 5 tweets

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