Points on #Afghanistan from yesterday's #DOD presser w/@PentagonPresSec in this THREAD. 1/n

defense.gov/Newsroom/Trans…
Q: Gen Milley has recently mentioned that securing Kabul Airport will be essential for keeping embassy presence not just for the US but for other countries after the withdrawal is completed & that there could be an int'l force assembled to do that... 2/n
...I wondered whether @SecDef agrees w/this & whether he's been talking to @NATO partners or others about organizing such a force.

MR. KIRBY: Certainly the secdef recognizes the key hub that is the airport there in Kabul & the impact that will have... 3/n
...not just for the US but other nations in terms of decisions about their diplomatic presence. So it's a factor that is being brought into discussions & deliberations inside our govt about what kind of a footprint would be required to help protect the work of our diplomats...4/n
...The president has been clear that we will maintain a diplomatic presence in #Afghanistan going forward. As I said, that means having that airport be accessible & open. And we're just not there yet in terms of what that looks like going forward... 5/n
...So, I won't speculate on what sort of force that would look like and who would comprise it. But clearly a measure of security at the Kabul Airport will be an important factor as we, again, pursue this new bilateral relationship with #Afghanistan. 6/n
Q: Today we heard Mitch McConnell criticizing the #Afghanistan pullout. He was basically saying that giving up the high ground while the enemy is still in the battlefield isn't a strategic move. Wondering if I could get your reaction to that? 7/n
MR. KIRBY: @POTUS's been very clear that our troops accomplished the mission for which they were sent to #Afghanistan. & that was to prevent that country from being used a safe haven for terrorist attacks on our homeland... 8/n
...& there hasn't been another attack on the homeland emanating from #Afghanistan since 9/11. @POTUS believes the mission has been completed & he's given us a new one. & that is to conduct a safe & orderly deliberate withdrawal from AFG & that's what we're focused on now... 9/n
...& so, the enemy at play here are terrorist attacks & terrorist groups that would do us harm. & again, the terrorist threat emanating from #Afghanistan has been diminished. Not extinguished by any means but diminished... 10/n
...& that is also why @POTUS has directed us to make sure that we can put in place an over the horizon capability so that we can continue to protect Americans from terrorist attacks emanating from that country & we're going to do that, we're working hard on that. 11/n
Q: #DOD used to release numbers on troops that were stationed in #Afghanistan, #Iraq, & #Syria as part of its regular database of personnel where they were assigned to states & int'l locations but that practice ceased during the Trump admin... 12/n
...Will #DOD resume releasing this info as part of the admin's commitment to transparency?

MR. KIRBY: We're working through specific policy decisions on that right now. But we have talked in broad brushes since January about troops that are deployed... 13/n
...to #Iraq & #Syria & #Afghanistan...I just said less than 1,000 in Syria & I think the number in Iraq is roughly 2,500. We're not talking specifics in #Afghanistan for all the reasons that I've covered before and that's to maintain a measure of operational security. 14/n
...Make sure that the withdrawal can continue to occur on pace & that we're not divulging more info than what is necessary. & we want to make sure that everybody gets out safely. & so, we have definitely curtailed the delivery of some data WRT #Afghanistan for those reasons. 15/n
Q: @CENTCOM released its update of the #Afghanistan withdrawal saying it's up to 25% today. Could you elaborate on what's going on with the withdrawal there? And is there any more understanding of what over the horizon means? & have any basing agreements been signed yet? 16/n
MR. KIRBY: I'm not going to elaborate further on what the @CENTCOM release said. I've been pretty religious about not doing that. I'm going to adhere to that line. If what you mean by--what is over the horizon mean, I assume you mean what's that going to physically look like.17/n
...& how that's going to be executed. We're still working our way through that. You saw that Gen McKenzie was in the region recently, & he got asked about that, & we're still putting the pieces together of exactly what an over-the-horizon #counterterrorism capability... 18/n
...is going to look like for the long term. You heard @SecDef say this in Brussels, we already do have some over-the-horizon #counterterrorism capabilities just by dent of forces we already have in the region & other long-range capabilities that we have outside the region... 19/n
...So there's already some over-the-horizon #counterterrorism capability. We know we need to think through this more deliberately & we're thoughtfully going forward as we get closer to completing the withdrawal & we're working on that. 20/n
... I don't have anything specific with respect to basing opportunities in the region that are ongoing diplomatic discussions about that, and I simply won't be able to get ahead of that. 21/n
Q: The military uses words like retrograde & orderly withdraw to describe what's going on in #Afghanistan. But given the fact that the #Taliban have not been defeated, could this move be described as a retreat? 22/n
MR. KIRBY: No. & I don't want to rehash the answer I gave earlier, so I would refer you back into the transcript of the mission that the president has given us, & the seriousness with which we are executing it... 23/n
...The mission in #Afghanistan, the reason troops were sent there--that mission has been accomplished, we now have a new one & that is to withdraw all our forces from AFG, but also to transition to a new bilateral relationship with AFG across the govt... 24/n
...diplomatically, econ, pol, & certainly from a security perspective. Our relationship w/Afghan National Defense & Security Forces will cont, but in a different way. & you heard @SecDef talk about what that looks like. So that's the mission & that's what we're focused on. 25/n
Q: Could you speak to the logic of pulling out of #Afghanistan while we're trying to counter Chinese influence & #China is very close to AFG & it seems logical that once we pull out they might want to go in there. So is that at all a concern for @SecDef? 26/n
MR. KIRBY: Our concern is making sure we get everybody out in a safe orderly way. & that's the mission at-hand. @POTUS's being clear that the mission for which our troops were sent has been accomplished... 27/n
...I wouldn't want to speculate about what nations might or might not try to influence things in #Afghanistan going forward. It would be our hope that there's a peace process in AFG that is Afghan led & that the Afghan people have a voice in and again a continued govt... 28/n
...that the Afghan people have a voice in that this is their country. & that int'l actors respect that sovereignty & respect the will of the Afghan people so that they might get to a pol end to this conflict & a peaceful future that we can all be proud of. That's the hope. 29/29

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More from @JJSchroden

25 May
Interest items on #Afghanistan from yesterday's #DOD presser w/@PentagonPresSec in this THREAD. 1/n

defense.gov/Newsroom/Trans…
.@SecDef spoke w/#Pakistan's COAS, Gen Bajwa, to discuss shared regional interests & objs. During the call, the sec reiterated his appreciation for PAK's spt for the #Afghanistan peace negotiations & expressed his desire to cont to build on the US-PAK bilateral relationship 2/n
Q: Getting back to #Pakistan, its Foreign Ministry put out a statement today ruling out the possibility of any US mil bases for the post-withdrawal from #Afghanistan #counterterrorism effort. Is there anything that the US is looking for right now from PAK... 3/n
Read 20 tweets
19 May
Comments by @PentagonPresSec on #Afghanistan at yesterday's #DOD presser in this THREAD. 1/n

defense.gov/Newsroom/Trans…
Q: In @US4AfghanPeace's testimony today, he said that the withdrawal is proceeding w/o any sig interference from the #Taliban & that he expects that to cont to be the case. You said you assumed there would be attempts by the TB to interfere. Have you changed your assessment? 2/n
MR. KIRBY: We would agree that thus far, the retrograde continues at pace, the withdrawal continues at pace with nothing more than some minor harassing attacks that have had no impact, so we agree w/that assessment. We certainly hope that that remains the case, going forward. 3/n
Read 16 tweets
18 May
I attended #SOFIC today, at which GEN Rich Clarke, the commander of @USSOCOM spoke. My notes from his speech (paraphrases, not quotes unless specified) are in this THREAD. 1/n
- #COVID19 has impacted @USSOCOM's operating culture—caused #SOF to look at where they need to be, how they interact, etc
- The withdrawal from #Afghanistan will bring changes. SOF were first ones in, will be the last ones out. Will spark a new era of opportunity for SOF. 2/n
- #SOF today are almost unrecognizable from SOF that invaded #Afghanistan in 2001. 20 years of the necessity of combat has been the mother of all inventions. SOF have had urgent warfighting needs for 20 years, and will continue to have these going forward. 3/n
Read 26 tweets
12 May
Today, the House Armed Services Committee held a full hearing for "An Update on #Afghanistan."

Witnesses were ASD David Helvey (OSD) & BGen Matt Trollinger (Joint Staff). It was a *long* hearing. I'll post a summary in this THREAD. 1/n
(If you'd like to watch the whole thing, here's the link: armedservices.house.gov/2021/5/full-co…. Note that what follows aren't quotes, but my paraphrases of their comments). 2/n
Chairman Smith opening remarks: This hearing will focus on key questions, such as: What is the process for US withdrawal from #Afghanistan & what’s our strategy going forward? Also, what our lessons learned from the past 20 years? 3/n
Read 87 tweets
26 Apr
NEW RELEASE!

Very excited to post this report by my team @CNA_org from a congressionally-mandated study led by @Pamela_Faber on whether DOD policies & activities adequately account for the roles of #women & #gender in #terrorist groups.

cna.org/CNA_files/PDF/… 1/n
For the study, the team researched & ID'd the roles of women & gender in terrorist groups; assessed whether current DOD counterterrorism (CT) & countering violence extremism (CVE) strategy, policy, & activities incorporate gender considerations; ... 2/n
... and identified gaps, risks & opportunities for DOD in the areas of strategy/policy/doctrine, training & education, operations & programs, and conceptual understanding. 3/n
Read 11 tweets
25 Apr
The debate contained within these tweets is a critical one: the question of to what extent the #Taliban will try to seize Kabul by force—as opposed to using force in support of a political track—is one I see many people grappling with here. 1/n
My view is that the #Taliban will press the mil front in 2022 but in a calibrated way—ie, they won’t “empty the madrassas” in a Tet style offensive, but will likely cont surrounding & pressuring provincial capitals. If the opportunity presents to seize 1/more, they’ll take it 2/n
But they know they can’t win militarily so long as the AAF/Commandos are in tact & the #ANDSF doesn’t fracture—neither of which are likely to happen so long as US security assistance $$ continues at scale. I assess it will until at least 2024. 3/n
Read 8 tweets

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