.@SecDef spoke w/#Pakistan's COAS, Gen Bajwa, to discuss shared regional interests & objs. During the call, the sec reiterated his appreciation for PAK's spt for the #Afghanistan peace negotiations & expressed his desire to cont to build on the US-PAK bilateral relationship 2/n
Q: Getting back to #Pakistan, its Foreign Ministry put out a statement today ruling out the possibility of any US mil bases for the post-withdrawal from #Afghanistan#counterterrorism effort. Is there anything that the US is looking for right now from PAK... 3/n
...in terms of what happens after the withdrawal is complete and is there any update on other possible basing agreements in the region for doing #counterterrorism operations, once the Afghan withdrawal is done? 4/n
MR. KIRBY: I don't have any specific updates in terms of the potential for overseas basing there, after our withdrawal. These are obviously diplomatic discussions that are ongoing & are clearly not complete. We're exploring a range of options and opportunities... 5/n
...to be able to provide a credible & viable over-the-horizon #counterterrorism capability & there's lots of ways you can do that. Overseas basing is just 1 of them. So nothing to report on that front. & I certainly wouldn't speak to, in any greater detail, WRT any 1 country. 6/n
Again, the @SecDef's discussion this morning was very useful & dealt with a range of bilateral opportunities that our two countries have going forward. 7/n
Q: A follow up Q on #Pakistan. The previous admin had to stop all financial aid to PAK because the previous admin believed they were not cooperating in the fight against terrorism. Is this new admin reviewing that policy or has it -- where do you stand on that? 8/n
MR. KIRBY: At this time, U.S. security assistance to #Pakistan is still suspended, and I won't get into speculating one way or another about if or whether that will change going forward. 9/n
Q: General McKenzie is in the area making some statements & talked also to the press. Reporting a piece from our colleagues from @AP leaves us under the impression that a vacuum is coming. Is the US committed to the security and to help allies and partners in the area? 10/n
MR. KIRBY: Of course we are. & we've said this time and time again. Just because we are removing our troops & ending our mil mission in #Afghanistan doesn't mean that we're walking away from the region. Nothing could be further from the truth. 11/n
There's still going to be a robust US presence in the Middle East, in the @CENTCOM area of responsibility. I think what Gen McKenzie was referring to was just that we need to be aware of the potential for other nation-states, with our absence from #Afghanistan... 12/n
...what kind of actions they might take. But there's absolutely going to be no diminution of our commitment to our allies and partners in the region, none whatsoever. 13/n
Q: How many US troops are in #Afghanistan right now?
MR. KIRBY: We're not giving out exact numbers of our troops there as we cont this withdrawal.
Q: Well, can we ballpark it? Can we say, you know, half have left, anything like that? 14/n
MR. KIRBY: No, I'm really not able to do that. We're going to confine our assessments to the assessments that you see every Tuesday coming out of @CENTCOM. & I recognize that you would like more data. I do & frankly, so does Gen McKenzie and his staff. 15/n
But I hope you also recognize our need to be somewhat circumspect in terms of the amount of info that we give out, particularly on a weekly basis so as not to violate operational security, so as not to provide info that could actually put our people in harm's way. 16/n
I know you share our desire to make sure that doesn't happen. & as I told you last week, & I'll reiterate it again that as the retrograde, the withdrawal continues & the capabilities in #Afghanistan get progressively smaller, I would expect & you should expect that... 17/n
...the way we package the information and how much we give is also going to change, too, again, to make sure that we're not putting anybody in more harm's way than they already are. 18/n
Q: On #Pakistan you said that sec assistance still remains suspended. We have seen @SecDef & AMB Sutherland spoke to his counterparts in PAK. At least can you say that there is a discussion about the sec assistance to PAK to be resumed or is it on the table? 19/n
MR. KIRBY: I won't go beyond what I said in the question previous. 20/20
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Q: Gen Milley has recently mentioned that securing Kabul Airport will be essential for keeping embassy presence not just for the US but for other countries after the withdrawal is completed & that there could be an int'l force assembled to do that... 2/n
...I wondered whether @SecDef agrees w/this & whether he's been talking to @NATO partners or others about organizing such a force.
MR. KIRBY: Certainly the secdef recognizes the key hub that is the airport there in Kabul & the impact that will have... 3/n
Q: In @US4AfghanPeace's testimony today, he said that the withdrawal is proceeding w/o any sig interference from the #Taliban & that he expects that to cont to be the case. You said you assumed there would be attempts by the TB to interfere. Have you changed your assessment? 2/n
MR. KIRBY: We would agree that thus far, the retrograde continues at pace, the withdrawal continues at pace with nothing more than some minor harassing attacks that have had no impact, so we agree w/that assessment. We certainly hope that that remains the case, going forward. 3/n
I attended #SOFIC today, at which GEN Rich Clarke, the commander of @USSOCOM spoke. My notes from his speech (paraphrases, not quotes unless specified) are in this THREAD. 1/n
- #COVID19 has impacted @USSOCOM's operating culture—caused #SOF to look at where they need to be, how they interact, etc
- The withdrawal from #Afghanistan will bring changes. SOF were first ones in, will be the last ones out. Will spark a new era of opportunity for SOF. 2/n
- #SOF today are almost unrecognizable from SOF that invaded #Afghanistan in 2001. 20 years of the necessity of combat has been the mother of all inventions. SOF have had urgent warfighting needs for 20 years, and will continue to have these going forward. 3/n
Today, the House Armed Services Committee held a full hearing for "An Update on #Afghanistan."
Witnesses were ASD David Helvey (OSD) & BGen Matt Trollinger (Joint Staff). It was a *long* hearing. I'll post a summary in this THREAD. 1/n
(If you'd like to watch the whole thing, here's the link: armedservices.house.gov/2021/5/full-co…. Note that what follows aren't quotes, but my paraphrases of their comments). 2/n
Chairman Smith opening remarks: This hearing will focus on key questions, such as: What is the process for US withdrawal from #Afghanistan & what’s our strategy going forward? Also, what our lessons learned from the past 20 years? 3/n
Very excited to post this report by my team @CNA_org from a congressionally-mandated study led by @Pamela_Faber on whether DOD policies & activities adequately account for the roles of #women & #gender in #terrorist groups.
For the study, the team researched & ID'd the roles of women & gender in terrorist groups; assessed whether current DOD counterterrorism (CT) & countering violence extremism (CVE) strategy, policy, & activities incorporate gender considerations; ... 2/n
... and identified gaps, risks & opportunities for DOD in the areas of strategy/policy/doctrine, training & education, operations & programs, and conceptual understanding. 3/n
The debate contained within these tweets is a critical one: the question of to what extent the #Taliban will try to seize Kabul by force—as opposed to using force in support of a political track—is one I see many people grappling with here. 1/n
My view is that the #Taliban will press the mil front in 2022 but in a calibrated way—ie, they won’t “empty the madrassas” in a Tet style offensive, but will likely cont surrounding & pressuring provincial capitals. If the opportunity presents to seize 1/more, they’ll take it 2/n
But they know they can’t win militarily so long as the AAF/Commandos are in tact & the #ANDSF doesn’t fracture—neither of which are likely to happen so long as US security assistance $$ continues at scale. I assess it will until at least 2024. 3/n