Alastair Thompson Profile picture
Jun 11, 2021 21 tweets 17 min read Read on X
Today's #NorthAfrica, #HornOfAfrica and #MiddleEast rainfall forecasts follow.

The images below from @NASA below show 3 north-south cross sections of the Sahara taken this morning.
1. Morocco to Ivory Coast
2. Algeria to Nigeria & DRC
3. Levant to Uganda.
An updated precipitable water animation - 10 Days - for the Sahara. The transit of water in a north easterly direction is finally starting to slow down, albeit not just yet.
10-day rainfall forecasts from four models for North Africa.
Here's an over view of the full area, North Africa and the Middle East this afternoon.
Here's a close up of the Eastern Sahara. There are multiple areas of cloud moving in a north easterly direction, focused on the Sinai.
Here's a close up of the northern area of the last animation. I note however that there is no rainfall expected in the models. There is a small amount of rainfall in Northern Saudi Arabia south of the Jordanian border.
This one shows the Western end of the Sahara where the jets powered by the Atlantic continue to push moisture along the Mediterranean African coast, mostly invisibly.
This animation is more relevant to the #Europe discussion, but it is interesting in so far as yoiu can see how much of the North Western Hemisphere is now covered in cloud. There is water everywhere, and a traffic jam forming in the North Atlantic, caused by the Sahara Jets.
Here are the 10-Day #Ethiopia #HornOfAfrica Rainfall forecasts which continue to grow. The same cannot be said however of the short term rain prospects.
Here are the 48 rainfall forecasts, for rainfall on the 11th and 12th of June for the #HornOfAfrica.
An animation from this afternoon of the Horn.
There were more spectacular #ArabianStorms today. But for some reason it appears that the Saudi Arabian weather radar data was not being received.
There are however numerous spectacular videos at @Arab_Storms of the activity in Eastern Saudi Arabia and Oman today.

Here's some fresh storm runoff in Oman.
10-Day June 11th, accumulated rain forecasts for the #MiddleEast from the GFS, ECMWF, CMC & KMA weather models.

#ArabianStorms

#KSA #Yemen #Oman #Jordan #Sudan #Iran #Syria #GERD #Sudan #DesertRain

الله أعلم
48 Hour June 11th (today and tomorrow), accumulated rain forecasts for the #MiddleEast from the GFS, ECMWF, CMC & KMA weather models.

#ArabianStorms

#KSA #Yemen #Oman #Jordan #Sudan #Iran #Syria #GERD #Sudan #DesertRain

الله أعلم
And finally, June 10th 16-day (GFS) and 12-day (KMA) accumulated rainfall forecasts for the Middle East.
/ENDS

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More from @althecat

Nov 19
ROD ORAM In Memoriam. A Photo Thread.

As some followers in NZ may be aware I am currently at #COP29 in Baku Azerbaijan. My fourth COP. And this is a relatively difficult one. Rod Oram died tragically in a cycling accident in March 2024 when I was back in NZ for my first visit since leaving NZ to spread my wings in 2015.

I caught up with him in Glasgow back in 2021 in the time of Covid.

But I have known him for a lot longer as you will see in the photos in this thread. The oldest pictures I have are from him at the Egypt hosted COP in 2022. My second COP.Image
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His successor in climate coverage @NewsroomNZ's @marcdaalder is attending his first COP this year which got me thinking about NZ's COP UNCCC coverage trailblazer for in person COP coverage.
There is a great spirit of camaraderie among the large COP media pool. In Glasgow he helped me orient myself, which is not an effortless process as the COP process is so big and varied and seemingly endless. But the attendees and guardians from the UNFCCC are all great people too.

Here at #COP29 at the end of 2024 the brilliant Marc Daalder is now filling Rod's shoes as in person COP correspondent. Whilst there are a fair few other Kiwis here we are the only Kiwi Journos here that I know of.

As I had never met him I was quite surprised when Cindy Baxter turned up to meet him and it turned out he was sitting one row away from me.Image
Read 5 tweets
Nov 18
COP29 Erasure – COP29 Media Center Crippled scoop.co.nz/stories/HL2411…
The official video record of COP29 is being erased every 12 hours & nobody here knows
The Media Center for UNFCCC COP meetings was transformed in 2021 in Glasgow during the UK Presidency of the COP. The new high tech set up has cameras in all official meeting places recording the events in full. The content from this system is then made available to media in the MEDIA Center via the IBC (Interational Broadcast Center) platform.
The center also has desks for several hundred journalists to work during the COP.
The first signs came on Thursday day four (14 November 2024) of COP29 last week during the first week of the COP. Ordinarily reporters attending COPs can request access to get files downloaded through a media desk. This can be useful to extract quotes or report on events that we are unable to attend due to timetable clashes etc.
Read 10 tweets
Nov 12
The wrong headed and frankly selfish approach of NZME and STUFF on the issue of the "Fair Digital News Bargaining Bill" [see: mch.govt.nz/our-work/broad…] is deeply problematic for independent and digital native publishing companies such as @Scoop.

Part 1 of my thoughts on the subject can be found here.

"Google's Support For Democracy And Media In NZ" scoop.co.nz/stories/HL2411…
Other medium sized digital native publications including @NewsroomNZ and @TheSpinoffTV are in a similar position to us - as well as a large group of smaller independent digital and print publications across New Zealand.
.@Google has made it very clear to the Government that it will withdraw its support for NZ media companies should this Bill pass. It considers the proposal to be a link tax and that the precedent that this would create for how the internet works globally is something that it cannot accept. As this is a global policy issue it will not back down on this.
Read 11 tweets
Nov 5
The final pre-election comedy roasts of @realDonaldTrump VIDEO-THREAD

/1 Jimmy Kimmel

Trump Ratchets Up Rhetoric, Epstein Bombshells Dropped & Jimmy's Electio... via @YouTube
/2 Stephen Colbert

Senior Women Back Harris In Iowa | America's Fresh Start | Trump vs. The... via @YouTube
@YouTube John Oliver on with Stephen Colbert.

The Weirdest Moments Of John Oliver's 11 Seasons Hosting "Last Week Toni... via @YouTube
Read 14 tweets
Oct 26
Who owns RCP politics?

Because…

it’s headline arithmetic system is borked

259 to 269 electoral votes ain’t possible Image
That said at the moment This is now Trump’s election to lose in the polling. And the turning point was September 30th. Image
What happened on September 30th?

A lot of really bad shit in Gaza. And through most of October.

So it looks like if Kamala Harris loses the election it is because of Democratic Party support for Israel’s Genocide. Image
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Read 5 tweets
Oct 26
U.S. warns Tehran against retaliation after Israeli strikes in Iran Haaretz haaretz.com/us-news/2024-1…
The Biden administration has told Tehran through an intermediary that it should avoid responding to the Israeli strikes in Iran on Friday and allow the U.S. to bring an end to the ongoing cycle of hostilities between the nations,

The messages were relayed through a third-party country that maintains diplomatic relations with Iran, indicating that the U.S. would increase its efforts in the coming days to achieve an agreement to end the war in Gaza and Lebanon. An Iranian response to the strike, the message warned, would hinder the American diplomatic efforts in the region.

Since the start of the Israeli strikes in Iran on Friday night, the U.S. administration has been signaling that this move aligns with President Biden's requests to Israel to target only military sites, rather than oil production facilities or Iran's nuclear program.

In the weeks leading up to the strike, Biden provided Israel with a ballistic missile defense system, while also publicly opposing an Israeli strike that would harm Iran's oil industry, due to concerns that such an action would destabilize oil markets and increase global energy prices.

A senior administration official said Biden encouraged "Prime Minister [Netanyahu] to design a response that served to deter further attacks in Israel while reducing risk of further escalation."

The administration clarified that the U.S. did not participate in the Israeli strike, but it's warning to Iran included a message that an Iranian response against Israel might lead to direct U.S. involvement in the conflict.

"Should Iran choose to respond, we are fully prepared to once again defend against any attack ... If Iran chooses to respond once again, we will be ready, and there will be consequences for Iran once again," a senior administration official said. "This should be the end of this direct exchange of fire between Israel and Iran."

In the days leading up to the IDF offensive, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken visited the Middle Eastin an effort to revive negotiations for a ceasefire in Gaza and the release of Israeli hostages held there.

The French government convened an international conference in Paris on the war in Lebanon, aiming to build a global consensus for ending the conflict based on UN Security Council Resolution 1701. France also sent a direct message to Iran, urging it to avoid responding to the Israeli strike to avoid disrupting these efforts.
… continues.
The Americans are currently examining two possible deals regarding Gaza. One option is a "small deal" under which a single-digit number of hostages held by Hamas would be released, and Israel would announce a two-week ceasefire in the region. It remains unclear if this deal would include the release of a certain number of Palestinian prisoners. The goal of this deal would be to lay the groundwork for a larger agreement, with precise details to be negotiated during the limited cease-fire, ultimately leading to the release of all hostages and an end to the war.

Meanwhile, a more extensive deal is also being considered, one that would involve the release of all hostages, an agreed-upon number of Palestinian prisoners, an Israeli withdrawal from Gaza, and an end to the war. This option currently appears less likely and is expected to face strong opposition from Prime Minister Netanyahu's coalition partners from the far-right parties – Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich.

Both ministers have voiced opposition to reopening negotiations for a hostage deal and expressed disapproval in security cabinet discussions of even a smaller deal that would include a temporary cease-fire. The U.S. administration is aware of their opposition but hopes that if Hamas agrees to one of the proposals, public pressure in Israel might compel the government to agree to the deal.

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