1. Electric vehicles drive peak oil demand.

2. Electrification is accelerating.

3. Alberta oil (esp. oil sands) need an energy transition plan, not just a climate plan.

Canada needs AB to be prosperous. Clinging to the status quo won't accomplish that.
2/Here' the interview with BloombergNEF's Dr. Nikolaos Soulopoulos I referred to.

BNEF is the gold standard of EV adoption forecasts. My guess is that it will be revising its sales forecasts every few years.

Disruption is here.
3/Speaking of disruption, here's my essay arguing that the 2020s will be this energy transition's disruptive decade just as the 1920s was the disruptive decade of the last energy transition.
energi.media/markham-on-ene…
4/Batteries will be the most disruptive technology driving electrification of transportation.

Dr. Harrop predicts 1,000 mile batteries by 2030.

Long trips, cold weather, apartment charging - objections to EV adoption eliminated.
5/The harbinger of EV supremacy, the Ford F-150 Lightning.

Why? Because pickup trucks were supposed to be hard to electrify. Turns out it's' not.

6/If you're an tech adoption wonk, here's Jeff Turner, clean mobility lead for Dunsky Energy Consulting, explaining why EVs will hit the inflection point on the S-curve in 2025.
7/BNEF says policy is the difference between strong EV adoption and a net-zero scenario (100% global sales by 2035). Well, here's the type of policy he's talking about.

Expect to see this strategy spread after COP26.
8/E-semis or hydrogen for long-haul freight and other heavy-duty applications?

Scott thinks electric will be competitive by the end of the decade.
9/Let's not forget light and medium-duty commercial vehicles. That's a huge global market. Amazon says 100,000 e-vans by 2030.
energi.media/energy-climate…
10/Mobility as a Service could be a game-changer, by lower transportation costs 4x-10x (@TonySeba).

MaaS is already here in some US cities (eg Las Vegas), but expect the rollout to start in just 2-3 years).
11/Canada was slow out of the blocks, but EV manufacturing is growing thanks to big investments from GM, Ford, and Canada's auto supply chain.
energi.media/energy-climate…
12/Speaking of Canada's auto supply chain, how cool is this Canadian-designed and soon to be built EV?

Great name! Who's buying an Arrow when it hits the market?
13/No discussion of EVs would be complete without electric transit. @JosipaPetrunic of @CUTRIC_CRITUC is THE Canadian expert in this area.

14/Energi Media has well over 100 interviews, columns, stories, etc. on electric transportation. You can find most of them in the Electric Transportation category of the Energi Student Resources portal.
energi.media/student-resour…

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More from @politicalham

22 May
1/Vivian Krause got one thing right:

For 10 years starting in 2009 the Tar Sands Campaign received a total of $40 million to oppose the oil sands and pipelines that shipped bitumen to market.

Beyond that, most of what she wrote is incorrect, inaccurate, wrong, or torqued.
2/What is astonishing to a journalist is just how many errors she has made in her Postmedia op-eds, her blog posts, and her public presentations.

Errors of fact.

Errors of interpretation.

Errors wrought by ignorance of the oil/gas industry.

She isn't malicious, she's dumb.
3/She has been influential because Canadian oil/gas leaders, Harper and the CPC, and Jason Kenney and the UCP have used her to further populist narratives.

Her work was weaponized to advance a political agenda.

She was, and still is, a useful idiot for conservatives.
Read 4 tweets
13 May
1/Re. Line 5 as an excuse to build Energy East...

According to CERI, a federally regulated pipeline requires 9 years to review/approve. Add another 3-4 years to build EE.

So, let's say EE is in service by 2035. What's going on in Eastern Canada then?

ceri.ca/studies/compet…
2/Well, Quebec's ban on the sale of gasoline cars takes effect in...2035.

Wouldn't that be lovely timing? Alberta rides to the rescue just as one-third of the Eastern Canadian market says goodbye.

May we assume Ontario consumers might also buy a few EVs?
energi.media/energy-climate…
3/Well, we'll just export the crude oil that Quebec doesn't want, you say.

Here's IEA oil analyst Olivier Lejeune that global peak oil demand will arrive by the late 2020s or early 2030s.
Read 7 tweets
7 Apr
1/This morning @ShayeGanam asked me what Alberta should do about the potential of losing 50-75% of oil/gas jobs by 2050. My reply:

1. Better leadership (political and business)

2. Create a coherent climate plan

3. Create an energy transition plan

4. A sense of urgency!
2/Here's my interview with Chris Severson-Baker of @Pembina about urgency for @jkenney govt to put in place a robust climate plan to reassure investors worried about climate risk.
#ABleg #OOTT #CDNpoli
3/Here's my Oct. 22, 2019 (day after federal election) column arguing that a showdown between #Alberta and #Canada is inevitable given AB is 36% of national GHG emissions, O&G is 26%, and oil sands are 10%.

energi.media/markham-on-ene…
Read 6 tweets
6 Feb
1/In this innocent tweet, Mr. Chomyn (a prominent Alberta UCP conservative) exposes for all to see what is wrong with the conservative energy worldview:

He misunderstands the fundamentals of the energy transition.

This is a big deal, Albertans.
2/What's really happening:

The global energy system is being transformed by a vast army of new energy technologies centred on clean, abundant, and cheap electricity.

Wind, solar, batteries, and EVs are just the tip of the iceberg.

There are thousands more behind the scenes.
3/What conservatives think is happening:

That the energy transition is driven by policy.

Which, in turn, is driven by govts.

It follows, then, that political ideology and political action are to blame for Alberta's woes.

Change govts, you save AB's oil/gas economy.
Read 23 tweets
5 Feb
"...Canada will not be able to fill that (petroleum) demand if we continue to let ideologically driven governments and activists shut in our products." - Cory Morgan in Suits & Boots email

Uh, energy transition, dude.

It's technology, markets, capital - not ideology.
2/Watch today's interview with battery scientist @JamesTFrith of @BloombergNEF and tell me that change is driven by "ideology" and not market changes created by new, better technologies.

#energytwitter #EVs #batteries #ABleg
3/Frith explaining why battery prices are falling so rapidly.

Here's the irony for Morgan: engineers make oil/gas production possible...and they're responsible for ever-improving batteries.

Should we believe they can do one thing but not the other?
Read 4 tweets
30 Jan
1/The Allan inquiry into foreign funding of anti-Alberta energy campaigns gets a third extension. Report is now due May 31.

For anyone who isn't familiar with my 2019 deep dive on Krause:

energi.media/deep-dives/deb…
2/Why another extension?

"Requests for extensions to the original schedules of public inquiries, regardless of the mandate, are not unusual," says Steve Allan.

The Commissioner makes it sound like a great deal of work has been done.

Highly unlikely.
3/The "foreign funding" is $40 million over roughly 10 years (2008 to 2018) from US charities to the Tar Sands Campaign, which had a shifting "membership" of 50 to 100+ Canadian ENGOs, First Nations, and communities.

It appears Greenpeace got the most: ~$250,000/yr.
Read 27 tweets

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