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Anas Alhajji Profile picture
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10 Jul, 6 tweets, 3 min read
OMG! 🔥
This is one of the times where I deeply hate to be correct & spot on. I tweeted about this last year.. reality bite..

#Oil #OOTT

University of Calgary suspends admission for oil and gas engineering program calgary.ctvnews.ca/university-of-… via @CTVCalgary
This is from August 19, 2020
This is from December 2018

another one from December 18:

This is from March 17, 2020

This is from June 14, 2020

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More from @anasalhajji

Anas Alhajji Profile picture
12 Jul
Thread on global oil production: Shale & Sanctions

1. The results are in. Only a few got it right! It is Canada. The US doubled its production by 2019, then production declined in 2020. This explains why the majority went for the US.
see chart in next tweet #Oil #OOTT Image
2. The chart below is a production index of the top 12 producing countries. It shows that the highest increases came from Canada, the US, and Iraq.

Anything below 100 is a decrease. In the case of Venezuela, production in 2020 is only about 17% of what it was in 2000. #OOTT Image
3. Here are changes in the production of crude & condensates between 2010 and 2020:
The US added 5.83 mb/d. Virtual tie between Iraq & Canada at around 1.62 mb/d, followed by Gulf states: Saudi Arabia, UAE, & Kuwait.

Now, look at the decline. Venezuela leads by 2.2 mb/d
#oil Image
Read 14 tweets
Anas Alhajji Profile picture
1 Jul
🔥Thread on why #OPEC+ meeting was delayed. Please feel free to quote.

1- The baseline for the calculation of the adjustments agreement of April 2020 was the oil production of October 2018. It has been used in all adjustments since then, including today's proposal
#OOTT #oil
2- Today's proposal consists of two parts:

a- Increase production by 2 mb/d between August & December in 400 kbd monthly installments.

b- Extend the production cut agreement from April 2022 to December 2022.

The objective is to bring order, stability & clarity to the market
3- The above are based on OPEC+ agreement to use October 2018 production as a base. All OPEC+ members appear to agree on it except the UAE

Some oil industry leaders in the UAE believe the UAE made a mistake by agreeing to a bad deal that used October 2018 as a base.
#OPEC #Oil
Read 11 tweets
Anas Alhajji Profile picture
19 Jun
Thread.. Friday night rant
1- Political comments about 4 oil producers: #Iran, #Iraq, #Libya & #Yemen:

End of crises in these countries requires dismantling all militias. That leads to another chaos as unemployment, poverty & crimes rise, while #Europe is flooded with refugees.
2- This explains the push by Europeans to integrate the militias into the army, despite their war crimes against humanity. Also, they do not want to pay to rescue these countries from being failed states. So militias are serving local and foreign interests at once
3- Now add Venezuela into the mix! Who has interest in dismantling the militias? Biden? No.
Without jobs, what will young men and women do? 🤔
It is an old political trick by politicians: if you do not keep them busy, they will be busy with you!
Read 15 tweets
Anas Alhajji Profile picture
17 Jun
Get this:
BP predicted in 2010 that OCED energy consumption in 2030 will be only 6% higher than in 2010 & that energy consumption between 2020 & 2030 will be virtually flat.
Fact from BP itself: OECD consumption between 2010 and 2019 was double the predicted growth: 12%
#OOTT
As for oil, it predicted the percentage of oil consumption in the global energy mix to decline from around 33% to 29% by 2020. Well, it remains at around 33%! That means all the expected decline to 2030 is now in the next decade.
BP predicted in 2010 that global oil + liquids consumption will be around 94 mb/d in 2019. Actually, it was around 100 mb/d! Off by a whipping 6 mb/d!

This is reality folks!
Read 4 tweets
Anas Alhajji Profile picture
2 Jun
Thread on #oil
1-6 Over the years, I have done a lot of work on the optimal price of oil

OPEC leaders will operate in the sweet spot. Where is the sweet spot now?

Based on my mode, we are already in it. Things start getting sour when Brent is above $75, bitter below $68. #OOTT
2-6 The above are rounded numbers. Of course, the actual results are not rounded. The model is based on several assumptions. The main one is that major producers focus on the long run. Their objective is to prolong the demand for oil as much as they can. #SaudiArabia #OPEC #OOTT
3-6 Short-term fluctuations above $75 or below $68 have no impact on the "sweet spot". Major oil producers should increase production if the price is TRENDING above $75 and prepare to cut if it is trending below $68, if they want to stay in the "honey barrel"!
#Oil #OOTT #OPEC
Read 7 tweets
Anas Alhajji Profile picture
1 Jun
1-5 It is ironic that it was a pro-Trump website that made a big story out of nothing and claimed that the Biden Administration imported Iranian oil.
Aside from being a confiscated oil, it was seized and brought to the US by the Trump Administration. 🔥
2-5 Even preparations to request court approval to sell the oil were made during the Trump administration. The company that owns the tanker contacted the Trump Administration to inform them it might have unknowingly loaded Iranian oil while thinking it was Iraqi #oil. #Iran
3-5 My view: this official contact by the company that owns the tanker ruined an undercover operation that forced the seizure of the ship!

Remember, such crude oil shipments to China take place all the time. Why only this one is confiscated?
Better yet, see next
Read 5 tweets

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