Thread by @anasalhajji

Thread.. Friday night rant
1- Political comments about 4 oil producers: #Iran, #Iraq, #Libya & #Yemen:

End of crises in these countries requires dismantling all militias. That leads to another chaos as unemployment, poverty & crimes rise, while #Europe is flooded with refugees.

2- This explains the push by Europeans to integrate the militias into the army, despite their war crimes against humanity. Also, they do not want to pay to rescue these countries from being failed states. So militias are serving local and foreign interests at once

3- Now add Venezuela into the mix! Who has interest in dismantling the militias? Biden? No.
Without jobs, what will young men and women do? 🤔
It is an old political trick by politicians: if you do not keep them busy, they will be busy with you!

4- For the current Iranian regime, their nightmare is to end the role of all militias, including those whom they sent to other countries. The last thing they want is military-trained young men demonstrating against the regime for lack of jobs and opportunities

5- So what should the US and the Arab Gulf states do? Just press for the return of all Iranian militias. But Iran will not do it despite the massive economic cost and all other difficulties. Reason? The cost to the regime from returning them is higher than financing them

6- Iraq will collapse into a total chaos if the militias are dissolved. That means the US might need to go back, or millions of refugees will flood Europe. That explains why the West is turning the blind eye to the human rights abuses of these militias

7- Enter “climate change” ... Assuming all the good intentions, climate change and its massive media coverage is coming at the expense of covering the human tragedies in these countries. But if you think these countries will even care about climate change, think again

8- It took 7 tweets to get to the main point:
While Europe and the US benefit from the existence of militias in these 5 oil countries, the same militias will ruin the climate change efforts. It is not on their agenda!
#OOTT #Oil

9- Any western country that cares deeply about climate change has to think twice before destabilising an oil-producing country. That exposes the hypocrisy of climate change: Either you incorporate human rights into it, or you turn the blind eye to it!

10- But the moment they incorporate human rights into climate change they have to accept a delay in implementation. They need to find a balanced approach. “Climate purists” do not care, since many want lower global population anyway #Climate #OOTT

11– while the aforementioned countries will ignore climate change issues, their supplies of oil will remain volatile ... for a long time... and that must be a major assumption in any oil market outlook #Oil

12- Solving the above issues requires true global leaders... Since we do not have them, 😔expect chaos to continue. Here I mean the policy chaos in Europe & the US as climate change policies clash with #HumanRights

13- Now #Iran is electing a new president. It does not matter whether he is conservative or moderate. The existence of militias is essential to the regime. The Shah was overthrown by domestic pressure, despite some international support. The regime understands this point.

14- Hence, the regime can take the international heat, especially that it knows that a military coup similar to that of 1953 that was orchestrated by the US and Britain then will not happen now, especially that the Godfathers of current regime participated in it!

15- sum up:
1- climate change clash with human right leads to failure
2- oil market volatility
3- militias serve domestic & foreign interests
4- All issues related to Iran & its involvement in other countries will stay for a long time
5- Venezuela might end up frozen in time