#INFA and a widening gyre.

July 22nd #Japan #Olympics2021 weather update, rain, wind, rain and more rain. This is not looking at all ok.

TL/DR: the model forecasts for East Asia have changed. And gotten significantly worse.
Here's a high resolution satellite image of Typhoon #INFA which is continuing to defy all predictions.

But the potential impacts of this storm both for those in its path and for the wider region are getting steadily worse.
Yesterday's thread can be found here >>

TL/DR the only hope at this point is that the models can't compute this right, and what they say will happen doesn't.

It's now time for prayer, and for Japan to prepare for widespread catastrophic rainfall.
All for a storm which doesn't yet exist.
Here we are now calling this #3rdStorm. The first 2 being #Cempaka (causing catastrophic and lethal flooding in south China) and #INFA which keeps getting stronger and more menacing and has the Eastern seaboard of China in its path.
The image above from the tip of the tail of #INFA's widening gyre. And this is where 3rd storm is expected to appear (i.e. where the Cyclonegenesis is expected to begin), albeit now later than originally expected, which for me at least is now a source of hope. Here's a live view.
If you squint & look very closely at the nook of the corner to the left of the tail faint traces of what could be rotation are there.
& If there's a tropical low in there then its a mystery why it hasn't been designated by JTWC as an area of interest requiring investigation yet.
A low if it is present should be rotating counter clockwise. And once we see that we will know #3rdstorm is forming.

You can watch this live here >> zoom.earth/#view=25,156.7…
I can see two changes in the latest model forecast.

1/ The first is that #3rdStorm development has slowed.

Left: Today's 6pm forecast for 25th July 00hrs
Right: Yesterday's forecast for 25th July 00hrs
And the 2nd difference is the intensity forecast for #INFA which is now significantly higher.

And it seems likely that it is this that is making the difference in the forecast.
But since the initiation data for the latest model was run, #INFA has now strengthened still further. And it could weaken at any time too. Very Severe Cyclones can do that. Or change direction. But in this case it doesn't seem likely that #INFA will weaken.
And here is the full reasoning behind their current intensity and track forecasts.

[Source: metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/jtwc.html]
The texts are easily understandable.


NOTE: The Yellow Sea is the sea west of Korea and it leads towards Beijing.
The final part of the discussion is on the models.

The model shown above is the latest ECMWF above.

The GFS has a completely different view however. And the forecasts I have been mainly using have been the GFS forecasts. The GFS shows #INFA skirting the coast, far enough way to remain strong. A worst case prediction.
To make things worse in the GFS forecast (see previous tweet) #INFA slows down and does a little shimmy whilst off shore from Shanghai.
But one thing the two models agree on is #3rdStorm. The ECMWF has a slightly worse trajectory for the Olympics, but the timing, intensity and track of this (yet to appear) fast moving, not particularly strong storm is effectively identical.
In the JTWC forecast they say


This is the ECMWF ensemble mean model.
And this is the EPS Ensemble models long-range rainfall forecast. Here we see that nearly all of Japan is forecast to get rainfall of 2 inches with peaks at a more modest 7.5 inches (20cm) but still a lot.
But this could well explain the lack of interest in the professionals in #3rdStorm. Everyone's eyes are entirely on #INFA. Here is the GEFS (GFS ensemble) model rainfall solution which is also not too bad for Japan.
Here are the latest (single model) rainfall solutions for the big two global models. 10 days

Right: GFS

Which are similar except in relation to the Yellow Sea trajectory question. For China though the GFS model is much better.
All that being said, I am confused as to how this PWAT forecast doesn't result more rain over Japan. Especially the bit at the end.

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More from @althecat

22 Jul
A brief pictorial thread of parts of the northern hemisphere where extreme or unusual weather phenomena are underway.

Starting with #eastasia #infa & #3rdStorm which seems to have initiated formation. This is the storm which will crash #Olympics2021, shortly after the opening.
The 1st animation is 120 hours. This version goes for 11 days longer. As on #infa’s path beyond 120 hours, what happens beyond July 26th is pretty uncertain. #infa is also continuously not behaving as expected, totes normal for a heat engine of this magnitude.
Heading west a few thousand miles the lingering impact of the #ArabianMomsoonBurst is set to continue for some time bringing thunderstorms to the Arabian peninsula on a daily basis. See @Arab_Storms for video reports.
Read 14 tweets
22 Jul
China Typhoon Coverage Thread

1. China: Heavy rains cause deadly floods in Henan province | DW News via @YouTube
2. Central China Floods: Death toll goes up to 33, thousands evacuated from Henan province | WION (India) English News
3. CNBC News: Massive floods strike China's 'iPhone City' after heaviest rains in 1,000 years
Read 9 tweets
21 Jul
Dear Ethiopian Twitter followers, and those from the wider region I have been covering with rainfall forecasts for the past few months.

I will no longer be doing these daily. But that does not mean they will stop altogether, as I am hooked on the changing weather in your region.
The image above is this from this morning's satellite pass. And it was the only bit visible through he cloud near the Ethiopian highlands which have been the focus of this effort. I suspect all of Ethiopia was covered but we can't see the bit in the black strip, not certain.
The reason for stopping the daily forecasts is, of course, the filling of the #GERD, that was why they started. But they led to so much more.

Today one of the things I originally started looking for happened in a spectacular way. This is a live rainfall image from 8.15 am today.
Read 13 tweets
20 Jul
Two typhoons getting closer and closer to each other. #INFA on the right is sucking the much smaller #Cempaka into its orbit. Sucking up all its outflow and chucking it out east.

The pair of typhoons current winds are fixed by JTWC at 70 and 65 knots at 06Z.
Here are the current warning graphics from the JTWC. ImageImage
#Cempaka is a midget Typhoon (1). Spinning like a top south west of Hong Kong.

Disregarding its size, #Cempaka is directing rain from Hanoi to Taiwan (2). The forecast (3 & previous tweet) shows Cempaka moving west in a loop, but this hasn't started yet. ImageImageImage
Read 31 tweets
19 Jul
Absolute scenes in South China Sea.Track forecast for Typhoon #Cempaka shows how weird set up of 2 typhoons in the same space is expected to resolve itself. Once #FabianPH / #INFA gets close it will going to drag Cempaka back out, with #Taiwan caught in between.
Latest JTWC satellite images of typhoons #Cempaka and #Fabian / #INFA
And the corresponding two JTWC Warning Graphic / Track Forecasts
Read 4 tweets
19 Jul
Congratulations to Ethiopia and Ethiopians everywhere on today's completion of the 2nd filling of the #GERD. It has been a great honour to follow along during this moment.

Today's rainfall forecasts for #NorthAfrica, #HornOfAfrica and #MiddleEast follow.
In honour of the #GERD we will change up the order of today's bulletin and get right to the most important issue, rain over the #Abbay basin, which due to its great quantity and consistency made this possible over such a short time period.
But first a brief explanation, as when it comes to the GERD not all rainfall counts. The first image here shows the path of the #BlueNile / #Abbay from Lake Tana to Khartoum where it meets the White Nile and becomes "The Nile".
Read 40 tweets

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