Two typhoons getting closer and closer to each other. #INFA on the right is sucking the much smaller #Cempaka into its orbit. Sucking up all its outflow and chucking it out east.

The pair of typhoons current winds are fixed by JTWC at 70 and 65 knots at 06Z.
Here are the current warning graphics from the JTWC. ImageImage
#Cempaka is a midget Typhoon (1). Spinning like a top south west of Hong Kong.

Disregarding its size, #Cempaka is directing rain from Hanoi to Taiwan (2). The forecast (3 & previous tweet) shows Cempaka moving west in a loop, but this hasn't started yet. ImageImageImage
#Cempaka above

These views show us what these storms looked like before nightfall.

#InHa below
These two images are trying to capture the relative scale but do not really do so effectively. ImageImage
So what's about to happen. This is the 20 06 GFS PWAT run for 180 hours. Landfall in Japan for the third storm is forecast overnight on the 24th-25th with high winds possibly arriving in time for the Olympics Opening Ceremony on the 23rd.
In this forecast the second phase of super moisture over Japan continues till August 1st.
Then in the final 4 days of the forecast things remain relatively benign. Over Japan.
1. Tokyo forecast rainfall before the storm 24th July

2. Tokyo forecast rainfall after the storm 29th July ImageImage
1. Japan forecast rainfall before storm 24th July (108hrs)

2. Japan forecast rainfall after storm 29th July (240hrs)

3. Japan forecast rainfall after atmospheric moisture has cleared. 1 August (300 hrs)

[Note: Forecasts beyond 120 hours are subject to significant error.] ImageImageImage
Disclaimer: This is not an official forecast and I am not a meteorologist. See the Joint Typhoon Warning Center for official advisories and warnings >>
Once again today we had the peculiar site of a large storm at sunrise over the Arabian Peninsula and Horn of Africa.
And here's a view of the Indian Monsoon this evening India time.
In this image, also from @NASA, we can see the entire Nile. The GERD can be seen in there if you know where to look. With this mass of cloud it was a minor miracle that the dam was partially visible. Image
Today's big pictureshows a view across all of Asia and Africa in which the Indian & East Asian Monsoon are peaking. on the right there are two typhoons, #Cembaka and #INHA which are about to become one after they collide over Taiwan in a couple of days. Image
Today's 10-Day Rainfall forecasts for North Africa from July 20th through July 31st. The #ArabianMonsoonBurst is ongoing and can be seen on the far right of each rainfall forecast. ImageImageImageImage
48-hour rainfall forecasts (today and tomorrow from our standard four models: the European @ECMWF, @NOAA's GFS, Canada's CMC and the Korean KMA models. ImageImageImageImage
Finally for #NorthAfrica we have the long-range 16-day (GFS) and 12-day (KMA) forecasts which continue to show significant #DesertRain in the central Sahara. ImageImage
Here we see a wider angle view of today's cloud movements over the Arabian Peninsula and the Horn of Africa from early this afternoon.
And this corresponding image shows us where the rain was this afternoon. There was a very big storm directly over Khartoum, and a lot of rain over Sudan. For a time there were also clouds covering most of the Aswan Dam. Image
And here's a closeup view of live rainstorms in this storm, which contained - as you can see - a lot of rain today. Image
Today's July 20th 10-day rainfall forecasts for #Ethiopia (+1 12-day from KMA) and the #HornOfAfrica: #Somalia, #Somaliland, east #SouthSudan, south east parts of Sudan, #Djbouti and #Eritrea.

Purple heaviest rain covers #Tigray, & #Abbay (#GERD) & #TekezeAtbara basins. ImageImageImageImage
Before the #MiddleEast forecasts here are a couple of #ArabSotrms observation tweets from today. In this first one I am not entirely sure what I am looking at. But it definitely looks dangerous. Its in #SaudiArabia today.
This one appears to show view from a car which looks a lot like a view from a boat, at Narjan #SaudiArabia.
Check out @ArabStorms for more extreme weather observations.
July 20th 10-Day accumulated rain forecasts for the #MiddleEast from the GFS, CMC, KMA & ACG weather models.


#KSA #Yemen #Oman #Jordan #Sudan #Iran #Syria #GERD #Sudan #DesertRain #UAE

الله أعلم ImageImageImageImage
48 Hour July 18th (today and tomorrow), accumulated rain forecasts for the #MiddleEast from the GFS, CMC, KMA and ACG weather models.


#KSA #Yemen #Oman #Jordan #Sudan #Iran #Syria #GERD #Sudan #DesertRain

الله أعلم ImageImageImageImage
And finally we have today's long-range #MiddleEast July 20th rainfall forecasts.

The16-day GFS & GEFS models, the 12 day KMA and the 15 day EPS (Euro ensemble) model forecasts.

الله أعلم ImageImageImageImage
And to conclude the regular elements, a big picture view. North Western Hemisphere zero hour simulation data (i.e. now).

1. Precipitable water PWAT anomaly
2. PWAT (potential rain + energy)
3. MLSP (Mean Sea Level Pressure)
4. 250Hpa (jet stream winds approx 11-15 kms high) ImageImageImageImage

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More from @althecat

21 Jul
Dear Ethiopian Twitter followers, and those from the wider region I have been covering with rainfall forecasts for the past few months.

I will no longer be doing these daily. But that does not mean they will stop altogether, as I am hooked on the changing weather in your region. Image
The image above is this from this morning's satellite pass. And it was the only bit visible through he cloud near the Ethiopian highlands which have been the focus of this effort. I suspect all of Ethiopia was covered but we can't see the bit in the black strip, not certain. Image
The reason for stopping the daily forecasts is, of course, the filling of the #GERD, that was why they started. But they led to so much more.

Today one of the things I originally started looking for happened in a spectacular way. This is a live rainfall image from 8.15 am today. Image
Read 12 tweets
19 Jul
Absolute scenes in South China Sea.Track forecast for Typhoon #Cempaka shows how weird set up of 2 typhoons in the same space is expected to resolve itself. Once #FabianPH / #INFA gets close it will going to drag Cempaka back out, with #Taiwan caught in between.
Latest JTWC satellite images of typhoons #Cempaka and #Fabian / #INFA
And the corresponding two JTWC Warning Graphic / Track Forecasts
Read 4 tweets
19 Jul
Congratulations to Ethiopia and Ethiopians everywhere on today's completion of the 2nd filling of the #GERD. It has been a great honour to follow along during this moment.

Today's rainfall forecasts for #NorthAfrica, #HornOfAfrica and #MiddleEast follow.
In honour of the #GERD we will change up the order of today's bulletin and get right to the most important issue, rain over the #Abbay basin, which due to its great quantity and consistency made this possible over such a short time period.
But first a brief explanation, as when it comes to the GERD not all rainfall counts. The first image here shows the path of the #BlueNile / #Abbay from Lake Tana to Khartoum where it meets the White Nile and becomes "The Nile".
Read 40 tweets
19 Jul
Today's #FabianPH #INFA, #Olympics, #Olympics2021 disruption update thread.

See yesterday's thread below.

TL/DR: There is a significant typhoon/extreme rainfall threat to Japan in the opening days of the Olympics.
Here's a view of the two storms, #FabianPH / #INFA whose interaction is forecast to produce a 3rd storm in 4 days time which was forecast yesterday to arrive in Tokyo two days after the Olympics opening.

#Olympics, #Olympics2021
In the latest GFS 1hourly simulation model the solution remains the same as of today. A large typhoon like low (in terms of water content) will make landfall in Japan and stay over the country for some time bringing torrential rains during #Olympics2021

#Fabian #FabianPH #INFA
Read 14 tweets
18 Jul
This attached thread from this morn looks at Typhoon #INFA ("In-fa" TS09W) which is poised to be extraordinarily disruptive to the 2021 Olympics in Japan.

It has since come clearer what we can expect from a dangerous and unusual weather system developing over the West Pacific. Image
This is the story of three storms rather than one, but IN-FA will play the starring role.

1. TD10W currently menacing Hong Kong
2. "IN-FA" which is technically still TS09W (fmrl. #invest98w)

& a 3rd storm which models forecast TD10W & IN-FA will bring about in 5 days time. Image
Here's the latest satellite imagery of TD10W (left) and #INFA (right) ImageImage
Read 17 tweets
18 Jul
This killer #EuropeBigWet storm is still packing a punch. Here you see it yesterday over Italy and the Balkans.
And here it is today. It still has a clearly defined circulation over the Adriatic Sea.
This shows the jet stream forecast for today which pretty perfectly matches what we are seeing here from the satellite imagery.

But while the circulation is gone the jet remains. This jet looks like it is going to move into the business of delivering moisture to the Middle East.
Read 5 tweets

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