A brief pictorial thread of parts of the northern hemisphere where extreme or unusual weather phenomena are underway.

Starting with #eastasia #infa & #3rdStorm which seems to have initiated formation. This is the storm which will crash #Olympics2021, shortly after the opening.
The 1st animation is 120 hours. This version goes for 11 days longer. As on #infa’s path beyond 120 hours, what happens beyond July 26th is pretty uncertain. #infa is also continuously not behaving as expected, totes normal for a heat engine of this magnitude.
Heading west a few thousand miles the lingering impact of the #ArabianMomsoonBurst is set to continue for some time bringing thunderstorms to the Arabian peninsula on a daily basis. See @Arab_Storms for video reports.
Next we go north west to Europe where a brief spell of hot weather and cloudless skies in the West is about to end, reverting to the #europebigwet conditions of the first half of the year. Lower than normal temperatures and endless thunderstorms, some of which have taken lives.
This version of the same map highlights areas of unusually high atmospheric moisture. Europe returns to an elevated state but the impact of the #arabianmonsoonburst on the Sahara is the most interesting phenomena here. Lots of #desertrain.
A third view shows us the next 5 days of rainfall accumulation. I am in the direct path of the incoming rain in Europe which arrives tomorrow and which will be a pleasant change for me at least. As I like rain. And rain hereabouts is generally very gentle.
Another unusual aspect of these North Atlantic forecasts is the continued absence of cyclones. While there have been several named storms this year, there had been only one hurricane, #Elsa which brought a lot of rain to the Eastern seaboard.
And finally a view of the #westafricanmonsoon which is having a very active year, in line with the East Asian and Indian Monsoons. These are the engines which are producing both predicted and some unpredicted changes to weather systems (e.g. the quiet Atlantic hurricane season.
Rivers are fixed in place, predictable, but at times hugely destructive. There are also fluid atmospheric rivers in the sky fed by convective thunderstorms which can tower to 18kms high and transport water thousands of Kms at high speed.
These two animations show forecasts for those rivers.

This one over the Western Pacific where typhoon #infa is sitting in the middle of a huge mass of meandering very wet atmosphere, and orchestrating what is happening around it.
These two animations only show the winds at 250hpa pressure, between 11-15kms high typically. But there are rivers at many different altitudes and they go in different directions.

And the physics of this gets more complicated the more water/energy there is.
This is why hurricanes are so hard to compute.

It is a scientific miracle that these models enable us to see into the future. They are a much needed early warning system for the globe which will help us to navigate the difficult times ahead.
But a massive investment and collaboration may well be needed to provide global coverage of the kind that currently exists in the US with meso-scale very accurate, rapid update short time scale models capable of identify local catastrophes yet to come, in time to prepare.
We live in interesting times, and it seems they are about to get much more interesting on the weather front.


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More from @althecat

24 Jul
This deep dive is for anyone interested in the unfolding #Ethiopia Security Crisis the #Tigray War and the information warfare associated with it. Full spectrum analysis.

@RaniaKhalek & @EugenePuryear
The final thesis provides an interesting explanation for the hard to explain U.S. position in relation to this #HornOfAfrica Crisis.

I.E. the US is just opposed to having independent free countries in such an important geo-strategic location.
The way @EugenePuryear lays out of the history, detail and context of this crisis leaves me with an uneasy feeling of déjà vu. There are echoes of the lead up to previous international relations castastrophes, Iran, Iraq, Libya, Syria.

Have we not learned anything?
Read 10 tweets
23 Jul
This animation shows 24 hours in the life of three storms in the West Pacific. The remnants of former Typhoon #Cempaka bottom left, Typhoon #INFA in the middle and TS #Nepartak far right which is headed to Japan.

Shangai is already receiving rain from In-fa, 650kms away.
A truly extraordinary storm. Maybe illustrative of what tropical storms of the future may look like.

#INFA developed slowly, moves slowly and is not particularly strong, but he/she is orchestrating rain catastrophes from 100s of KMs away in Shangai the Phillipines and Japan. Image
A big high resolution photo of INFA from this morning from @NASA WorldView. This is a truly huge storm. Image
Read 9 tweets
23 Jul
. @SecBlinken, @JosepBorrellF, you insisted Ethiopia pursue a path of peace in Tigray to enable humanitarian assistance to to millions experiencing famine.

The TPLF rejected a ceasefire and continues its offensive against the legally recognised Govt.
In recent days TPLF mounted attacks across the border into Afar Region, reportedly killing locals and allegedly using child soldiers as part of their army. These statements from @reda_getachew are very clear, he claims he is fighting and winning a war.
And yet you remain completely silent. Daring not to criticise the TPLF who are are now, transparently the aggressor in this conflict.

Reda is a constant liar and propagandist. It seems odd that the two great western superpowers wish to align themselves with such a man.
Read 16 tweets
23 Jul
Flashback: This is an early thread I posted when relatively new to the Tigray War and the #GERD issue back in April as the AU dam agreement negotiations between #Egypt #Sudan and #Ethiopia were breaking down.

It addresses the role of the Trump administration in this.
Back then I was a complete neophyte to this subject area when I posted this. And it was before the Jeffrey Feltman mission.

But given that parts of the new U.S. admin and media have now taken an strong anti-Ethiopian stance on this issue it perhaps deserves further analysis.
If the U.S. role in the #GERD dispute in any way precipitated the escalation in internal tensions in Ethiopia, which doesn't seem an unreasonable conclusion based on the timeline discussed in this thread then they have a responsibility to take this into account now.
Read 4 tweets
22 Jul
China Typhoon Coverage Thread

1. China: Heavy rains cause deadly floods in Henan province | DW News via @YouTube
2. Central China Floods: Death toll goes up to 33, thousands evacuated from Henan province | WION (India) English News
3. CNBC News: Massive floods strike China's 'iPhone City' after heaviest rains in 1,000 years
Read 9 tweets
22 Jul
#INFA and a widening gyre.

July 22nd #Japan #Olympics2021 weather update, rain, wind, rain and more rain. This is not looking at all ok.

TL/DR: the model forecasts for East Asia have changed. And gotten significantly worse.
Here's a high resolution satellite image of Typhoon #INFA which is continuing to defy all predictions.

But the potential impacts of this storm both for those in its path and for the wider region are getting steadily worse.
Yesterday's thread can be found here >>

TL/DR the only hope at this point is that the models can't compute this right, and what they say will happen doesn't.

It's now time for prayer, and for Japan to prepare for widespread catastrophic rainfall.
Read 21 tweets

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