Thread by @3DiMMUNE

These two graphs tells the story about 3rd wave with #DeltaVariant.

daily cases vs. daily death. Based on data from 2nd wave,we should have expected already ~ 500-2000 death daily but so far the UK only reported ~ 100 daily death. Does it mean vaccine worked? No. why not?

1/

Why cannot I say with certainty that 10-20 fold lower daily deaths in the 3rd wave indicate that the vaccine is effective?

Simply because the authority consistently say that >90% of those who are diagnosed with #COVID19 are non-vaccinated.

2/

So, >90% with #COVID19 are non-vaccinated and still there is 10-20 fold fewer daily death?

This makes no sense unless #COVID19 positive population in 3rd wave is completely different from those in the 1st and 2nd waves.

3/

As I said earlier vaccine cannot explain the drop in daily death in 3rd wave as >90% of those with #Covid19 ar non-vaccinated.

Only reasonable explanation is 3rd wave population is somehow different. One reasonable argument is that it is much younger, healthier group.

4/

So, what does it all mean?

it means, in my view, that we cannot say that the current vaccine is reducing the daily death rate as it is reduced without a vaccine.

younger, non-vaccinated group is the main target of the 3rd wave because older population is still practicing NPI.