Thread by @ShamezLadhani

1/ There have been increasing claims, mainly in North American news outlets, that the #SARSCoV2 DELTA variant is causing more severe #COVID19 in kids compared to previous variants

Well, everything we know so far indicates that’s it’s *not* true. Here’s why…🧵

2/ It’s true that the delta variant is more transmissible the both the alpha variant & the original strains, which means that it will infect more people more quickly, but there is no evidence that the risk of infection or transmission to others is different in kids vs adults

3/ Because of its higher transmissibility, there will be more Delta variant cases &, since most adults in many countries are vaccinated against #COVID19, cases/hospitalisations may seem disproportionately ⬆️ in kids (especially teens) vs adults. This just shows that #VaccinesWork

4/ So, if cases ⬆️ in kids & if ~1 in 200 kids with #COVID19 are hospitalised then the *number* of kids with the virus in hospital will also ⬆️. And, since a small % of these hospitalised kids will have severe #COVID19 & may need ICU care, the *number* of kids in ICU will also ⬆️

5/ One clue to support this observation is that most reports in the news & media are based on personal experiences of clinicians & individual hospitals rather than reports of hospitalization rates compared to local community infection & vaccination rates 👉latimes.com/socal/daily-pi…

5/ Another clue is that most reports of severe childhood #COVID19 cases in the news & media are from regions with high community #COVID19 infection rates & low adult #COVID19 vaccine uptake, which increases the risk of kids catching the virus 👉katv.com/amp/news/local…

6/ Is there any other supporting evidence? Well, only indirect evidence but still reassuring: @jneill is a strong advocate for kids against #covid & regularly updates case numbers & hospitalisations in England. You can see the recent delta wave in kids is bugger than alpha wave👇

7/ The graph below from @jneill shows that, like cases, #COVID19 hospitalization numbers also went up faster & higher with delta than alpha wave in England, although numbers remain low: maximum ~53 daily hospitalizations in a population of 12 million kids (= 4 per million kids)👇

8/ But when you look at *rates* (% of kids with #COVID19 who are hospitalised) the red line (if anything) is lower in the current Delta peak than previous Alpha peak, which means that kids exposed to the delta variant were less likely to be hospitalised than alpha wave @jneill 👇

9/ Just to clarify, the yellow line is the proportion of hospitalised kids with #Covid_19 over a total of all hospitalizations for #COVID19 and, reassuringly, with the increasing adult vaccine uptake, fewer adults are hospitalised with #COVID19, so the kids % will ⬆️ @jneill 👇

10/ There are caveats with these data - we don’t really know if kids were hospitalised with or *because of* #COVID19 but these caveats should be the same for Alpha & Delta peaks &, thus, comparable. Note: very few kids (even with medical conditions) get hospitalised with #covid19

11/ In conclusion, the Delta variant is more transmissible than other variants & cases have ⬆️ rapidly, even in kids. Around 1 in 200 kids exposed to #SARSCoV2 will be hospitalised but, if anything, it looks like delta variant might have lower hospitalization rates in kids

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12/ If anyone is aware of better data on severity of illness or outcomes with the delta variant compared to other variants in kids, please do share. The pandemic is constantly shifting and it’s not possible to keep up with all the literature