#Leadership in a Growth-constrained, Information-Age #Economy
Reflecting on conversations 2018 Conclave where business & academic leaders had shared their insights on the constraints that global & the #Indian economy faces & possible solutions.
ideassansideology.org/engagements/le…
2. Demand was identified as the constraint on growth and wage/earnings growth was considered to be the solution. Pandemic has made it worse. But solution is still in growth in earnings - now more than ever.
3. At the end of the day, government is not spending, industry is not spending, and the individuals are not able to spend, and therefore growth is constrained.
4. In the medium term, the global economy faces a larger challenge – a sharp decline in potential growth across the world – particularly in the US, where labour force participation as well as labour force productivity have both come down secularly and structurally.
5. The basic problem that we must address is the lack of demand. Demand comes from consumption, investment, government spending and exports. Consumption is not growing fast enough, as the annual growth in salaries is low and not many new jobs are being created.
6. Consumption and investment can grow only if earnings grow. A credit-led growth has its limits as seen during the global financial crisis and currently in leading emerging markets.
7. A declining savings rate compromises a household’s ability to invest in its future and thereby the economy’s ability to invest and grow in the long run.
8. We need much more equity than we have today, which implies that the Indian financial investor would need to take more risk, if growth has to be financed wisely.
9. Digital technology can help deliver ‘value by design’ rather than ‘value by serendipity’.

A platform approach (portfolio of businesses, products, services, solutions and experiences), built around the core consumer purpose, can help build a sustainable growth organisation.
10. Investing, organic or acquisition, across cycles essential for creating sustainable growth. Investment in digital technology, at this stage, is a leap of faith.
Not any more, though. It is now an absolute must.

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More from @AnilKSood5

29 Jun
#Agriculture #Earnings in #India
Thread
1. Farming is a fixed cost activity, with uncertainty of output. Cost of living is largely fixed for all of us.

@andymukherjee70 @kikumbhar @sritara @Sabya_K @srinivasanravi @srirags @ieuditmisra @Roshanjnu @HarishRDave Maximum & Minimum Family Earnings by Crop: India, Data from
2. Cost of living experiences structural shift as the economy grows.

3. Earnings benchmarked to rural cost of living do not allow us to make investment for building capability to take advantage of urban opportunities. Explained later while building a case for public spend.
4. India has constrained its ability to grow by not pricing agri products to help farmers earn sufficient income that give them a chance to invest in themselves & their family and make a transition to urban jobs or becoming entrepreneur.
Read 16 tweets
24 Jun
Global Trends 2040: A More Contested World

One of my go to report for big picture understanding. It is worth reading, if not already read.

dni.gov/index.php/gt20…
1. "Human development, including health, education, and household prosperity, has made historic improvements in every region during the past few decades..
2. Many countries will struggle to build on and even sustain these successes.

3. More extreme storms, droughts, and floods; melting glaciers and ice caps; and rising sea levels will accompany rising temperatures.
Read 9 tweets
23 Jun
Preparing for the #Pandemic and accelerating #Growth by creating naturally high value-adding, low capital-intensity jobs in the healthcare sector: My perspective

financialexpress.com/opinion/how-to…

@EKumarSharma @FinancialXpress
A healthcare job creates a nominal value-added of ~Rs. 5.8 lakhs 1 per year, compared with ~4.40 lakhs for an average job in the Indian economy. In addition, it has backward linkages with much higher value-adding jobs in the pharmaceutical & medical equipment mfg. businesses.
A healthcare job requires an investment of ~ Rs. 9.1 lakh, compared to Rs. 10.1 lakh for an average Indian job. In other words, a healthcare job is a low capital intensity and high value-adding job.
Read 5 tweets
11 Jun
#Inflation & #Commodity #Prices

2 articles '09 & '21.
4 Charts US CPI, PPI

1. financialexpress.com/archive/FE-Edi…
2. reuters.com/article/us-met…

Why did '09 not sustain? Why do we think that 2020/21 will sustain?

@SahilKapoor @vijaybhambwani @Macro_Maniac_ @GoodGiffen @Determinedinvst ImageImageImageImage
Data Source: Bureau of Labour Statistics, USA and IMF's Commodity Price Portal
An interesting side story

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Read 7 tweets
4 Jun
Financing of Healthcare in India
Moral as well as Economic Reasoning requires the #Government to increase its Share of Spend
Thread
My perspective @ETHealthWorld
health.economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/industry/…

@andymukherjee70 @kikumbhar @sritara @ramakumarr @grumpeoldman @ieuditmisra @Dinesh_Unni
1. “SDG1, which calls to “end poverty in all its forms everywhere” could be in peril without UHC, as almost 90 million people are impoverished by health expenses every year.”
2. In India, we run a higher risk of impoverishing our people as more than 50% of healthcare expenditure is met by families.., with 60% of rural and 40% of urban families are having to borrow, sell assets or ask for contributions from family & friends to meet hospitalization exp.
Read 17 tweets
2 Jun
#Housing and Physical Living Conditions
@khilwani_karan @andymukherjee70 @kikumbhar @Sabya_K @sritara
We have converted a large part of Urban India into terrible living spaces that don't even provide adequate breathing space- forget privacy.
1. Our policy, combined with the real-estate and construction industry practices has made housing completely out of reach for a vast majority of people in the urban areas,...
2. ...unless a family is willing to commit itself to lifetime of housing-driven indebtedness, but with no guarantee that they would not live a slum-like conditions in future.
Read 12 tweets

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